VZCZCXRO7515
OO RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #1237/01 3071458
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 031458Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4683
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001237 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID PREF PGOV PHUM SOCI SMIG UN SU
SUBJECT:  USAID Acting Administrator Meeting on Elections in 
Khartoum 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: On October 24, USAID Acting Administrator Alonzo 
Fulgham and Acting Assistant Administrator for USAID's Bureau for 
Democracy, Conflict, and Humanitarian Assistance (USAID/DCHA) Susan 
Reichle participated in an elections and political processes 
roundtable in Khartoum.  They met with the U.N.'s Chief Electoral 
Affairs Officer and USAID elections and political processes 
implementing partners to discuss the considerable challenges that 
Sudan faces to conducting free, fair and credible elections in 2010. 
 Coupled with limited time and political will, Sudan's upcoming 
elections may not meet international standards.  Despite these 
shortcomings, Sudan, buoyed by U.S. and international assistance, is 
poised to make significant democratic advances when compared with 
its own political and electoral history.  International and domestic 
expectations appear to exceed on-the-ground realities, creating the 
potential for disappointment and the concomitant need to temper and 
manage expectations.  End summary. 
 
--------------------- 
DELEGATION MEETS POLITICAL PROCESSES EXPERTS IN KHARTOUM 
--------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) On October 24, USAID Acting Administrator Alonzo Fulgham and 
Acting USAID/DCHA Assistant Administrator Susan Reichle met in 
Khartoum with the U.N.'s Chief Electoral Affairs Officer and USAID 
elections and political processes implementing partners.  These 
partners included the International Foundation for Electoral Systems 
(IFES), the National Democratic Institute (NDI), the International 
Republican Institute (IRI), and The Carter Center. 
 
---------------------- 
CHALLENGES: ELECTION ADMINISTRATION 
---------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) USAID/Sudan election implementing partners explained to 
the delegation that the constitution and the electoral law call for 
both executive and legislative elections, the simultaneity of which 
creates significant challenges. Given the number of levels of 
government, voters in the North and Darfur will cast eight ballots 
each.  Voters in southern Sudan will cast 12 ballots each. 
Meanwhile, voters in Abyei, who can vote in state legislative 
elections in both Southern Kordofan and Warrap states, will each 
cast 11 ballots. IFES indicated that the National Election 
Commission (NEC) will have to produce more than 1,200 different 
ballots and distribute these ballots to the correct polling stations 
across the country. The number of ballots will be difficult to 
complete for the average Sudanese voter in the south, east, or 
Darfur, who has little or no experience with past elections.  An 
exacerbating factor is the high illiteracy rate in southern Sudan, 
estimated at 85 percent. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The USAID implementing partners further explained that 
voter registration, which begins next week, will also be a complex 
process in Sudan, as will electoral administration. The legal 
framework for credible democratic elections is incomplete, and 
finalization of administrative procedures related to various aspects 
of electoral administration continues to be delayed.  For example, 
UNMIS and IFES pointed out that with one week left before the launch 
of voter registration, voter registration plans are changing almost 
daily, and eligible voters have yet to be informed of essential 
registration details such as when, where and how to register.  UNMIS 
further noted that the referendum law is 28 months late, while the 
formation of the referendum commission is 24 months behind schedule. 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) In addition, USAID/Sudan implementing partners manifested 
concern that GOS funding for election preparation would be 
insufficient to address the tasks at hand.  They further lamented 
that the National Election Commission (NEC) has been only partially 
receptive to international expert assistance.  IFES reported that, 
in recent weeks, some Sudanese groups have raised the possibility of 
an elections boycott.  It is not yet clear how serious such a threat 
may be, as this is a tactic often utilized to gain political 
concessions and reforms. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The Carter Center expressed concern over geographical 
flashpoints for violence, and the incomplete status of election 
security planning.  Insecurity persists in Darfur, the Three Areas, 
and pockets of the south, such as Jonglei and parts of Upper Nile. 
(Note: The GOS-declared state of emergency for Darfur further 
exacerbates adverse conditions for elections in that region, 
significantly constraining not only physical movement but also 
essential freedoms, such as freedom of speech and assembly. End 
note.) 
 
----------------------- 
 
KHARTOUM 00001237  002 OF 002 
 
 
USG AND INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT IS SIGNIFICANT 
----------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Two Congressional supplementals have provided USAID/Sudan 
with $70 million of funding for elections.  This funding, coupled 
with additional non-supplemental funding, makes USAID the largest 
bilateral donor supporting elections and political processes in 
Sudan with approximately $95 million total. The United Nations 
Development Program Basket Fund currently includes approximately 
$186.4 million in pledges and committed donor funds to support 
elections, while UNMIS is supporting elections both through the 
basket fund and through direct assistance that together total more 
than $100 million. 
 
------------------------- 
ELECTIONS IN SUDAN: A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE 
------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Discussants commented that, despite the challenges noted 
above, the upcoming election will likely be evaluated favorably when 
viewed from a historical perspective.  Further, current donor 
investments are laying a foundation for electoral administration 
progress and advances in civic participation in electoral processes 
over a longer term.  IFES noted that Sudan's last election 
commission mobilized approximately four million voters during 
previous elections, while planning for upcoming elections has been 
based on targets of up to 20 million.  (Note: Some experts believe 
that actual registration ultimately may reach approximately 8-10 
million, while noting that this estimate would be higher if southern 
states are able to successfully implement registration.  Reports 
from southern states suggest that the NEC is not providing adequate 
information and funding to enable southerners to successfully 
organize and implement full-scale registration. End note.)  Further, 
Sudan's 2010 elections will include domestic monitoring for the 
first time in the country's history.  Finally, as UNMIS stressed, 
electoral reforms included in the 2008 National Election Act improve 
transparency and reduce the opportunity for electoral fraud by 
stipulating the counting and posting of results at each polling 
station. 
 
------------------------- 
EXPECTATIONS EXCEED ON-GROUND REALITY 
------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) All USAID/Sudan partners cautioned that international 
stakeholders, including the U.S. Congress and the media, tend to 
have high expectations for transitional elections, despite the 
likelihood that such elections may not meet international standards. 
 Discussants agreed on the importance of expanding outreach to U.S. 
constituencies to emphasize that the path to democratic 
transformation in most countries requires incremental improvements 
in electoral processes over several electoral cycles.  They surmised 
that, given Sudan's electoral history, international assistance is 
likely to lead to improvements in the 2010 electoral process in 
Sudan, although international standards for free and fair elections 
are unlikely to be met in 2010. 
 
¶10. (U) The USAID delegation has cleared this cable. 
 
WHITEHEAD