VZCZCXRO7422
OO RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #1234/01 3071442
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 031442Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4677
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001234 
 
NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KPKO AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: CDA DISCUSSES ABYEI WITH DIRDIRI 
 
REF: A) KHARTOUM 862 B) KHARTOUM 1135 C) KHARTOUM 1174 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  On October 29, CDA Whitehead discussed 
developments in the Abyei special administrative district with 
Ambassador Al Dirdiri Mohamed Ahmed (NCP), the Government of Sudan's 
(GoS) Abyei point-person.  Dirdiri said that the migration of 
Misseriya tribes-people into Abyei this year could be violent if 
attempts are made to disarm them.  He also noted a potential for 
violence in connection with the national elections this April, and 
views the outcome of the Abyei referendum as riding entirely on 
whether the Misseriya are entitled to vote in it.  Dirdiri blamed 
the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) for Misseriya anger 
about the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) ruling on Abyei (Ref 
A) and said that attempts to improve their understanding of the PCA 
decision were unlikely to bear fruit without substantive changes 
benefiting the Misseriya.  Dirdiri appears focused on whether the 
Misseriya are permitted to participate in the Abyei referendum, 
perhaps indicating that the GoS will use the Misseriya in an attempt 
to retain control of Abyei, or as a tool to extract concessions from 
the SPLM in other areas.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
---------------------------------- 
Misseriya Will Not Migrate Unarmed 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Dirdiri cautioned that hopes for a peaceful migration of 
Misseriya this year into and through Abyei may not be realistic. 
(Note:  The Misseriya's annual migration south began in mid-October, 
with the majority of participating Misseriya and their cattle 
expected to reach the Abyei area by early December.  End Note.) 
Dirdiri stated that if the GoS and the Government of Southern Sudan 
(GoSS) seek to disarm the Misseriya during their migration there are 
likely to be conflicts.  Dirdiri said that insecurity along the 
Misseriya migration routes, including in and around Abyei, is rife, 
and that the Misseriya could not be expected to travel unarmed.  He 
added that the Misseriya will also feel they are crossing a border 
if asked to disarm upon reaching Abyei, adding to their concerns 
regarding the PCA decision and boundary demarcation efforts. 
Regarding demarcation efforts, Dirdiri noted that the GoS had 
recently sent helicopters to help with the work at the request of 
the demarcation committee, and that demarcation should be a simple 
task.  (Note:  The demarcation of Abyei's boundary in accordance 
with the PCA ruling has been delayed due to technical hurdles and 
threats of violence from local Misseriya (Ref B and C).  End Note.) 
 
------------------------------------- 
April Elections Could Create Conflict 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Dirdiri cautioned that local elections in Abyei next April 
also create risks.  Dirdiri theorized that Dinka running for office 
in Abyei will consider the movement of Misseriya into Abyei as a 
threat to their election chances.  He said Dinka politicians could 
take actions such as spoiling local water sources to force the 
Misseriya to by-pass Abyei on their southern migration.  Dirdiri 
noted that there are even rumors that the Sudan People's Liberation 
Army (SPLA) has plans to spray herbicide on the grasslands of Abyei 
to prevent the Misseriya from grazing their cattle.  (Note:  The 
SPLA does not have any helicopters from which to spray herbicide. 
End Note.) 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
Misseriya Anger Regarding PCA Ruling Blamed on SPLM 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) Dirdiri accepted that efforts aimed at educating the 
Misseriya people as to the effect of the PCA decision have not been 
sufficient, but blamed the SPLM.  He said that immediately after the 
PCA decision was issued, Misseriya leaders were invited to Khartoum 
and assured that the decision would not negatively affect their 
people.  Dirdiri said the SPLM should have taken similar 
confidence-building measures, but that instead Salva Kiir, President 
of the GoSS, told the Misseriya that they should support the SPLM or 
continue being subservient to the National Congress Party (NCP) and 
look to the NCP for their future welfare.  (Note:  Post is unable to 
confirm this allegation from press reports on Kiir's visit to South 
Kordofan.  End Note.)  According to Dirdiri, since then the 
Misseriya have been angry and disaffected.  Dirdiri said the GoS is 
making efforts to contain this disaffection, for instance, by 
warning the Misseriya against playing into the hands of Darfur rebel 
groups, but he noted that currently the Misseriya have denounced 
both the NCP and the SPLM.  When asked whether a visit to Muglad by 
a high level delegation from the NCP and SPLM could help defuse this 
tension, Dirdiri said this would be difficult without substantive 
 
KHARTOUM 00001234  002 OF 002 
 
 
changes, such as confirming that the Misseriya are citizens of 
Abyei. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
Misseriya Vote Will Determine Abyei Referendum 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶5. (SBU) Dirdiri said that the rules governing the Abyei referendum 
will be extremely contentious, as its outcome will be dictated by 
whether the Misseriya are permitted to participate.  Dirdiri said 
that if they are allowed to participate, Abyei will clearly remain 
part of northern Sudan and if they are not permitted to participate, 
it will go to the south.  Dirdiri stated that the SPLM will 
therefore view the Misseriya vote as a threat to all they have 
achieved in their struggle for control of Abyei.  (Note: The CPA 
states that the residents of Abyei are "members of the Ngok Dinka 
community and other Sudanese residing in the area," so while Ngok 
Dinka residing anywhere in Sudan will be able to vote in the Abyei 
referendum, only Misseriya determined by the Abyei Referendum 
Commission to be "residing in the area" can vote.  In an October 29 
conversation with David Raikow, Political Officer for the United 
Nations Mission in Sudan, Raikow told Poloff that Dirdiri is 
overstating the effect of the Misseriya vote, noting that all the 
Misseriya in Sudan would probably need to converge on Abyei in order 
to change the outcome of the referendum.  Even Dirdiri admitted that 
the number of non-sedentary Misseriya that migrate through Abyei are 
limited in number.  End Note.) 
 
¶6. (SBU) Comment:  Dirdiri appears focused on the Abyei referendum, 
and to what extent the Misseriya are permitted to participate. 
Dirdiri may be overstating local Misseriya concern with the outcome 
of the Abyei referendum.  Misseriya living in the area likely care 
more about their grazing rights in Abyei and southern Sudan, and 
their right of return to Abyei, and less about whether Abyei is part 
of northern or southern Sudan.  The GoS may use the Misseriya in an 
attempt to retain control of Abyei, or as a tool to extract 
concessions from the SPLM in other areas. End Comment. 
 
WHITEHEAD