VZCZCXRO5234
PP RUEHDBU RUEHPW RUEHSL
DE RUEHBUL #3744/01 3261634
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 221634Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3360
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 003744 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM AF
SUBJECT: EARLY KARZAI INAUGURAL FEEDBACK: TRIBAL AND WOMEN 
LEADERS 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: Twenty Afghan tribal and women leaders, 
gathered in Kabul November 21, gave Embassy officers 
contrasting reactions to key points in Karzai's inaugural 
speech regarding security and corruption.  The tribal 
representatives, mainly from the East, expressed confidence 
in the ANSF's ability to take responsibility for 
Afghanistan's safety within five years.  That group was 
reluctant to blame the current government for corruption, but 
the women - mainly from Kabul - insisted that Karzai take 
action quickly on anti-corruption by appointing "clean, 
competent ministers."  The women were unwilling to predict 
that Afghans could ensure their country's security in the 
short term.  End Summary. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
Can Afghan Security Forces Take the Lead? 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) We asked for reactions from the women and tribal 
leaders, who met separately, to the following quote:  "We are 
determined that within the next five years, the Afghan forces 
will be capable of taking the lead in ensuring security and 
stability across the country." - President Karzai's inaugural 
speech, November 19. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Both groups agreed that transferring responsibility 
for security to the Afghans is an important, tangible goal. 
A female law professor commented that this line in the 
inaugural address was "not just the words of President 
Karzai, but the hope of the entire country."  A number of 
tribal and women leaders drew analogies to past British and 
Russian presence in Afghanistan to illustrate that only 
Afghans can secure their own country in the longer term. 
Participants' views coalesced around two key challenges for 
both Afghans and the international community: 1) the Afghan 
National Security Forces (ANSF)'s perceived lack of funding 
and equipment and 2) the disruptive role of Afghanistan's 
neighbors in securing and stabilizing the country.  Both 
groups raised the need for continued financial, military and 
diplomatic support from the international community to 
address these issues. 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  The tribal leaders spoke optimistically about the 
ability of the ANSF to take over security within the next few 
years, as a point of Afghan honor, but stressed that more 
equipment would be key.  As one tribal leader put it, 
"Afghanistan is no longer drinking milk but is growing up, 
taking its first steps, and learning how to defend itself." 
He added that that the ANSF has not achieved the status of a 
national force that can protect the country, but if properly 
equipped could get there "within about two years."  Other 
tribal representatives agreed that if the international 
community spent "10-20% of the cost of foreign troops" to 
supply, arm, and train the Afghan troops, ANSF could assume 
responsibility for the country's security in short order. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The women reached the same conclusion that better 
equipment and training is crucial to successfully 
transferring responsibility for security and stability, but 
calculated the necessary time frame more cautiously.  The 
Afghan director for the Open Society Institute (OSI) was 
skeptical that ANSF could take control within five years, 
referencing the country's economic problems and the degree of 
outside funding it would take to support the ANA and ANP at 
its projected levels.  Another woman said she was "hopeful 
ANSF will take over security in 5 years, but the government 
should not rush things," noting that a slow, responsible 
process would afford the insurgency fewer "opportunities." 
 
¶6. (SBU) In addition to the need for better equipment, there 
was a strong consensus that NATO/ISAF forces should improve 
security along Afghanistan's borders.  A Nuristani tribal 
leader referred to Afghanistan's "two-faced" neighbors and 
said it would take international pressure on Pakistan to 
achieve our shared goals.  One tribal leader from Paktia 
suggested all foreign forces should be used exclusively to 
secure the borders, a comment the women leaders also made.  A 
female MP from Helmand elaborated that if foreign forces 
controlled the Iranian and Pakistani borders, it positively 
impact security to the degree that "nothing" would happen 
inside Afghanistan. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
Corruption: An Afghan or International Problem? 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶7.  (U) We also asked for reactions to the following quote: 
"The Government of Afghanistan is committed to ending the 
culture of impunity and law-breaking and bring to justice 
those involved in spreading corruption and abuse of public 
property.  To do this, we will require effective and strong 
 
KABUL 00003744  002 OF 002 
 
 
measures." - President Karzai's inaugural speech, November 
¶19. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) The tribal leaders overall gave this quote less 
attention, speaking only in dispassionate generalities such 
as the need for corruption to be addressed through appointing 
"clean, good people" to government positions and improving 
rule of law.  The women leaders, prompted only by the 
security quote, immediately moved on to corruption and 
emphasized the need for a "clean, transparent government" and 
"better, competent ministers." 
 
¶9.  (SBU) While the women appreciated the quote, they were 
skeptical that Karzai has the political will and ability to 
take real action, given the powerful forces supporting 
corruption.  One woman asserted that Karzai had "promised the 
same things before and nothing happened."  They individually 
reiterated the need for Karzai to "do what he promised" and 
stop corruption at every level.  A female MP from Helmand 
feared any crackdown on corruption would only punish 
lower-ranking officials and not senior government officials. 
While she noted that, ideally, punishing a corrupt minister 
would have a positive effect on society, she was skeptical 
that Afghanistan's "ineffective justice system" would 
actually convict a senior official.  A tribal representative 
from Takhar maintained that "the same people who break the 
law are the ones who wrote it," and that "those who take 
bribes are the ones in powerful positions" (i.e., the reason 
they get the bribes is that they are in a position to do 
something for others.) 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Tribal and women leaders both alluded to the role 
the international community plays in analyzing - and allowing 
- corruption.  A tribal representative from Paktia requested 
the international media and governments "stop attacking" the 
Afghan government and "portraying it as corrupt" because the 
government could prove it was clean and competent.  The head 
of the Kuchi (Nomad) directorate and a female law professor 
both alleged that "corrupt people were imposed on Karzai at 
Bonn" when the "U.S. appointed known warlords and human 
rights abusers" (Northern alliance warlords) to positions in 
the transitional government.  Participants in both groups 
also noted that corruption is not limited to the Afghan 
government, but can also be seen in donor organizations and 
NGOs who received "millions of dollars with no checks and 
balances." 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Though the discussion participants criticized the 
United States for contributing to corruption, they also 
suggested ways for the international community to help 
improve governance.  One tribal leader appeared confident 
that an international conference on corruption organized by 
Karzai (also mentioned in the inauguration speech) could be a 
useful starting to point to seriously address corruption.  A 
female Afghan Red Crescent board member commented that many 
competent Afghans are hired by NGOs and international 
organizations, leaving only "people who just want to take 
advantage of the situation" in government positions.  She 
recommended the international community take responsibility 
for building capacity within the Afghan government.  The OSI 
country director implored the international community to 
"impose a merit-based system on parliament and cabinet 
positions" and apply serious pressure to the government 
through conditionality of funding.  While some organizations 
and countries have already applied conditions to their 
funding, this strategy could only be effective with U.S. 
participation, she said. 
 
---------------------- 
Turn Words Into Deeds! 
---------------------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU) While the women and tribal representatives agree 
that transferring security responsibility to the Afghans and 
ending corruption are vital goals, through their comments 
they demonstrated that they will not feel confident that 
Afghanistan is moving in the right direction until they see 
serious demonstrations of political will - by Karzai and also 
by the international community.  Appointing competent 
ministers will be the Afghan government's first and most 
important step to show Karzai is serious about ending the 
"culture of impunity."  If he takes that step, the Afghan 
people will likely grant him more time to focus on 
eliminating corruption in other areas of government.  The 
Afghans are also expecting action from the international 
community, including better oversight of donor funding and a 
reiteration of our commitment to train and equip the ANSF to 
make it ready for a new, leading role. 
Mussomeli