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DE RUEHLM #1038/01 3201302
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O 161302Z NOV 09 ZDS ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY COLOMBO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0765
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001038 
 
C O R R E C T E D COPY ADDED SENSITIVE CAPTION 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INSB 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PHUM PTER EAID MOPS CE
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT RAJAPAKSA GETS COLD FEET ON ELECTIONS 
 
REF: COLOMBO 1030 
 
COLOMBO 00001038  001.66 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  Summary.  President Mahinda Rajapaksa in a 
much-anticipated nationwide speech on Sunday night failed to 
announce either a presidential or general election. 
Rajapaksa instead largely gave a speech that extolled the 
virtues of his Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and took 
thinly-veiled swipes at the opposition  and outgoing Chief of 
Defense Staff (CDS) General Sarath Fonseka (ref).  Reaction 
to the speech has been relatively muted so far.  The larger 
story of Rajapaksa's speech may be that senior SLFP leaders 
have started to lose confidence in the past few weeks in 
their ability to win a presidential election against the 
newly-formed opposition United National Front (UNF). End 
Summary. 
 
SLFP Speech, Convention Largely Uneventful 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) On November 15, President Mahinda Rajapaksa failed 
to announce either a presidential or general election in his 
highly anticipated address to the SLFP national convention, 
deciding instead to keep his electoral options open. (NOTE: 
The general election is slated to be held in April 2010 and 
the presidential election in 2011 END NOTE.)  Rather than 
announce an election date, Rajapaksa gave a lengthy speech to 
SLFP party members that largely detailed the achievements of 
the SLFP since Rajapaksa came to power in 2005 and warned the 
country of those who would seek to undermine the progress of 
Sri Lanka in the post-war environment, especially as it 
relates to economic development.  The President referred to 
Sri Lanka's new "war" as one of economic development. Many of 
Rajapaksa's statements were thinly-veiled swipes at the 
opposition and outgoing CDS General Sarath Fonseka, including 
his statement that "yesterday's patriot may become tomorrow's 
traitor."  Although Rajapaksa did take an oral count of the 
party cadres' views of whether a presidential election or 
general election should be held first (NOTE: The party cadre 
all voted for a presidential election to be held first, 
according to local press reports. END NOTE.) and laid out 
five resolutions to guide the party in the post-war 
environment, these were non-issues as the speech was largely 
notable for its lack of announcement of a presidential or 
general election. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Reaction to the speech has been relatively muted so 
far.  Senior SLFP and opposition leaders, including Fonseka, 
have not made public comments regarding the speech.  SLFP 
sources told the Embassy that they do not attach much 
importance to Rajapaksa's speech and that the President will 
only announce an election date when he is ready.  Opposition 
sources view the speech largely as an admission of defeat by 
Rajapaksa and assess that the President will delay calling an 
election until the frenzy over Fonseka as a potential 
presidential candidate dies down. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  Rajapaksa's failure to announce an early 
presidential or general election date probably reflects a 
growing lack of confidence on the part of the Rajapaksas over 
the past few weeks in their ability to defeat a Fonseka-led 
opposition in a presidential or general election.  By 
addressing the SLFP convention, Rajapaksa allows himself to 
be seen as consulting his party on the way forward, but more 
importantly, it buys senior SLFP leaders time to decide their 
next political move.   A well-connected and thoughtful source 
told us today that the President is committed to holding the 
presidential election in January and that he probably would 
announce the date on the 22nd or 23rd of November after 
 
COLOMBO 00001038  002.3 OF 002 
 
 
consulting astrologers on the most auspicious date.  The 
source noted that Rajapaksa assessed that delaying the 
election two years could be too late for his personal 
popularity. 
 
 
 
 
 
BUTENIS