VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBM #0789/01 3291409
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 251409Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY BUCHAREST
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 0109

UNCLAS BUCHAREST 000789 
 
UNCLASSIFIED 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CE ASCHEIBE 
 
SIPDIS, SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV RO
 
SUBJECT:   ROMANIA ELECTION UPDATE: PNL throws its support to 
Geoana, isolating incumbent Basescu 
 
REF: BUCHAREST 783 AND PREVIOUS 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary.  With more than 99 percent of votes counted, 
incumbent President Basescu and Social Democrat (PSD) candidate 
Geoana will advance to the December 6 Presidential runoff.  In a 
November 22 statement third place finisher Crin Antonescu (National 
Liberals-PNL) again ruled out supporting Basescu, leaving Geoana at 
least a temporary edge in courting PNL's 20 percent of the 
electorate.  An OSCE election observation team declared that the 
contest generally met international standards but noted numerous 
irregularities.  It now seems clear that Romania will not receive 
the next tranche of its IMF financial package before 2010, leaving 
the government struggling to pay its bills.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (U) With 99.92 percent of votes tallied, the Central Election 
Bureau (BEC) released near final results early on November 24: 
Basescu 32.42 percent, Geoana (PSD) 31.17 percent, Antonescu (PNL) 
20.0, Vadim Tudor (Greater Romania Party - PRM) 5.55, Kelemen Hunor 
(Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania - UDMR) 3.83, Sorin 
Oprescu (independent) 3.18, Gigi Becali (New Generation Party) 1.91. 
 Final voter turnout stands at 54 percent, higher than expected. 
Barring the unforeseen, Basescu and Geoana now advance to the 
December 6 runoff. 
 
ELECTION OBSERVERS WEIGH IN 
¶3.  (U) The Ministry of Interior reported the number of electoral 
"incidents" at 1,327, about evenly divided between urban and rural 
areas.  As reported reftel, many of these involved allegations of 
vote-buying and most involved the three major parties.  In a 
November 23 preliminary statement, the OSCE Limited Observer Mission 
praised the election as generally meeting OSCE and international 
standards, but noted accusations of multiple voting and long lines 
at special polling stations - many of which closed before all voters 
were able to cast their ballots.  The OSCE team will remain in 
country to observe the remainder of the campaign and the December 6 
runoff. 
 
ANTONESCU AND BASESCU SNARL 
¶4.  (SBU) Antonescu categorically ruled out November 23 offering any 
support to Basescu, labelling him a "populist devoid of ideology" 
and a danger to Romanian democracy.  However, he also said this did 
not automatically translate into support for Geoana.  Antonescu 
called on the PSD to endorse Sibiu Mayor Klaus Johannis as Prime 
Minister and to support a cabinet based on competence and 
professionalism rather than political criteria.  Geoana promptly 
announced PSD's willingness to strike a political agreement with 
PNL.  The same day, Basescu denounced Antonescu's inconsistent 
position on Geoana, whom the PNL leader had criticized on the 
campaign trail as the puppet of shady interests and media moguls. 
Basescu reiterated November 24 that he would "rely on voters and not 
politicians" for re-election. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Antonescu's quick announcement may have been motivated by 
fear that Basescu's very active negotiators might sway more amenable 
members of the PNL leadership.  At present the PNL electorate seems 
divided among Basescu supporters who share the center-right 
philosophy of his Liberal Democratic Party (PDL) and Geoana 
supporters, many of whom have grown to hate Basescu.  While most PNL 
members are thought to favor the second option, many local PNL 
leaders are reportedly concerned that a formal PNL-PSD alliance will 
be a difficult sell to their voters.  Basescu's public statements 
appear designed to attract this group. 
 
IMF PACKAGE STALLED 
¶6.  (SBU) Meanwhile, the pre-election government crisis and the 
electoral calendar have all but certainly delayed until early 2010 
disbursement of the next tranche of the IMF bailout package.  As 
previously reported, the GOR must pass a CY2010 budget that meets 
IMF criteria before the IMF Board will vote to release the money. 
There are indications that the Parliament may be prepared to 
consider the budget as soon as a new Government is formed following 
the December 6 runoff.  However, inauguration of the new president, 
nomination and approval of the new Government and presentation of 
the budget could well take several weeks.  Even were an IMF team 
able to visit Bucharest and report back to the IMF Board before the 
New Year, the Board itself would not likely convene for a vote 
during the holiday season.  That poses an even greater challenge to 
a GOR already struggling to pay this year's bills. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) COMMENT.  The acid exchange between the Basescu and 
Antonescu camps gives Geoana the upper-hand, at least for now. 
Pundits predict that half of Antonescu's support could go to Geoana 
and one quarter to Basescu, with the remainder staying home.  Even 
if that is correct, about half of the undecided electorate still 
remains ripe for the taking, with far-Right and ethnic Hungarian 
voters comprising 12 percent of the electorate.  The ethnic 
Hungarian UDMR is scheduled to meet later today to discuss whom to 
support, and no one expects Basescu to sit back and cede undecided 
votes to Geoana.  There are deals to be made out there. 
 
 
GITENSTEIN