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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 001521 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE PASS EUR/WE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR BE
SUBJECT: BELGIAN PM VAN ROMPUY HARD TO REPLACE IF HE 
BECOMES EU PRESIDENT 
 
BRUSSELS 00001521  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (U) Summary:  The Belgian media and academics believe PM 
Herman Van Rompuy is the most likely candidate for EU 
President.  Van Rompuy has been a consensus-builder during 
his year in the Prime Minister's office and throughout his 
political career of more than 35 years.  Van Rompuy shares a 
deep commitment to the European Union that is inherent to all 
Belgian politicians; as a founding member state of the 
European Coal and Steel Community and the EU, Belgium 
believes strongly in the EU and sees itself as a part of a 
European political family.  Should Van Rompuy be selected as 
EU President, choosing a new Prime Minister could be a 
contentious task.  Van Rompuy's Flemish Christian Democratic 
(CD&V) Party has said former PM and current FM Yves Leterme 
would be the most obvious successor, though he is unpopular 
in Francophone Belgium and with some in his own party.  A 
return of former PM Jean-Luc Dehaene from retirement is a 
less likely option.  Whoever is found to take Van Rompuy's 
place would lead the GOB through the Belgian EU presidency 
(July 1 to December 31, 2010) and until new elections are 
held in the first half of 2011.  End Summary. 
 
Van Rompuy as EU President 
-------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The Belgian press has speculated over the last week 
that current PM Herman Van Rompuy would be selected by 
European leaders as the first President of the Council of the 
European Union.  Both the Flemish and French speaking media 
argue that a politician from one of the smaller members of 
the original six founding countries of the EU (France, 
Germany, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg) 
would be the best candidate.  A knowledgeable academic 
contact views Van Rompuy as the only non-controversial choice 
among the contenders.  If the EU picks Van Rompuy, it will be 
taking a politician whose local reputation is as a low key 
consensus builder in a country known for its difficult 
regional and linguistic divisions -- not an insignificant 
resume item for a future EU President.  However, there is not 
yet EU-wide consensus on Van Rompuy, and some member states 
bristle at the idea of simply validating what they see as 
France and Germany's choice. 
 
Leterme or Anyone But Leterme? 
------------------------------ 
 
¶3. (SBU) If Van Rompuy is appointed EU President, the search 
will be on to find a successor to him as Prime Minister. 
According to a contact within the CD&V, the party's 
leadership has already endorsed former Prime Minister and 
current Foreign Minster Yves Leterme as Van Rompuy's 
replacement.  The same contact also acknowledged there was 
some concern among party regulars with that decision.  A keen 
academic observer of Belgian politics recently told Poloff 
that many members of the political class in Brussels are 
worried about another Leterme Prime Ministership.  That 
contact noted that even within the CD&V, "the party of 
government," there were not many who favored Leterme's move 
from the MFA back to the PM's office.  Leterme's first 
government took seven months to form and fell within a year. 
The second Leterme government fell when Leterme resigned in 
December 2008 due to allegations that he interfered in a 
major judicial decision related to the sale of Belgium's 
largest bank Fortis to the French bank BNP Paribas.  Leterme 
is not particularly well liked by the Francophone parties and 
comes from the pro-Flanders wing of the CD&V. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Still, among other CD&V senior leaders, the current 
party, Chairman Marianne Thyssens, is not considered a 
contender.  Current Flemish Minister-President Kris Peeters 
is a rising star within the party, but just won his second 
election to a full four-year term, and likely would not view 
appointment to the remaining year or 18 months before 
elections must be held in 2011 to be appealing.  Asking 
former PM Dehaene to return from retirement for a year is 
another possibility, but only if the CD&V's coalition 
partners decide to oppose a third Leterme government. 
Outside the CD&V, the Francophone Liberal MR and Flemish 
Liberal Open VLD together hold 41 seats in Parliament.  The 
 
BRUSSELS 00001521  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
MR leader, Didier Reynders, is the only plausible Francophone 
PM, according to academic contacts and the press.  However, 
he would have difficulty gathering support from the other 
Francophone party leaders in advance of the election.  The 
Open VLD party is in shambles and has no contender for PM. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) If Van Rompuy were offered the Presidency of the EU 
Council, it might be too important a post for him to refuse, 
but the move would carry some risks for Belgium.  Belgium 
holds the rotating EU Presidency during the second half of 
2010 and as such will play a major role in putting the Lisbon 
treaty into practice.  Though a Belgian at the helm of the EU 
Council during that time would reward Belgium's reputation as 
a solid member of the European Union, it would also place the 
spotlight on Belgium's contentious internal politics.  Herman 
Van Rompuy has ably led the Belgian government for the past 
year and dealt well with the squabbling that sometimes erupts 
between Belgium's language regions and parties.  Some 
observers in Brussels suggest Van Rompuy may turn down the EU 
Presidency if offered, because of his dedication to his 
country.  That would also signal that Van Rompuy himself has 
doubts about a possible third Leterme government. 
 
BIO 
--- 
 
¶6. (SBU) A Flemish Christian Democrat (CD&V), Herman Van 
Rompuy became Prime Minister of Belgium on December 29, 2008, 
when the King asked him to form a government after the 
resignation of then PM Yves Leterme.  Van Rompuy developed a 
reputation as a consensus builder palatable to both Flemings 
and Francophones throughout his over thirty-five years in 
politics, strongly supporting the unity of the Belgian state. 
 He has grown in public esteem since his appointment, based 
on his comparatively smooth management of Belgium's often 
contentious body politic.  Van Rompuy served as President of 
the Chamber of Deputies from 2007 to 2008.  He received the 
honorary title of Minister of State in 2004.  He has been 
elected to the Belgian Chamber of Deputies on the CD&V list 
in every election since 1995.  He served as Vice Prime 
Minister and Minister of Budget from September 1993 to July 
1999; he earned respect for drastically reducing Belgium's 
public debt during this period.  From September 1988 to 
September 1995 he was the National Party Chairman for the 
Christian People's Party (CVP), the forerunner of the CD&V. 
He briefly held the post of State Secretary for Finance and 
Small and Medium Enterprise from May to September 1988.  He 
was a CVP senator from 1988 to 1995.  From 1982 to 1988 he 
was the CVP Chairman for the Brussels-Halle-Vilvoorde 
electoral arrondissement, a politically important region to 
both the Francophones and the Flemings, which includes the 
Brussels region, and a mix of majority French and Dutch 
speaking suburbs in the Flemish region surrounding the city. 
He first became a member of the CVP's national bureau in 
1978, and served as the National Chairman of the CVP Youth 
from 1973 to 1977.  During his political career, he has 
served as a C on October 
 
BRUSSELS 00001521  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
31, 1947.  He is married to Geertrui Wendels.  The couple has 
four children: Peter (1980), Laura (1981), Elke (1983), and 
Thomas (1986).  They have a grandson named Lander (2008). 
 
GUTMAN 
.