VZCZCXRO9532
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSL RUEHSR RUEHVK
RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #1356/01 3201851
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 161850Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0388
INFO EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001356 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KIRF PHUM PGOV PREL SR KV
SUBJECT: SERBIA: PATRIARCH PAVLE PASSES AWAY 
 
REF: 08 BELGRADE 1217; BELGRADE 217; BELGRADE 1080; BELGRADE 467 
SARAJEVO 951; 07 BELGRADE 1560 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.    (SBU) Patriarch Pavle, the revered 95-year old head of the 
Serbian Orthodox Church (SOC), passed away in his sleep on November 
¶15.  His death after more than two years of hospitalization triggered 
an outpouring of emotion, and the government announced three days of 
mourning to be followed by Pavle's November 19 funeral at the 
Rakovica Monastery near Belgrade.  The Patriarch's death also set in 
motion complex procedures for the election of his successor, which 
likely will occur within the next two months.  Although there already 
are clearly identifiable frontrunners, we anticipate that fierce 
lobbying will commence once the Patriarch is laid to rest.  End 
Summary. 
 
"Walking Saint" To Be Buried in Belgrade 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.    (U) Born Gojko Stojcevic in a working-class family in Slavonija 
(modern-day Croatia) in 1914, Pavle endured a difficult childhood in 
which he lost both his parents.  After working briefly in 
construction following World War II, he took his monastic vow in 1946 
and progressed through the Church ranks.  In 1957, the SOC Holy 
Assembly of Bishops (Sabor) elected Archimandrite Pavle as Bishop of 
Raska and Prizren, a diocese that includes parts of Kosovo.  While 
serving in this capacity until 1990, Pavle called attention to the 
plight of Orthodox Serb believers in Kosovo. 
¶3.    (SBU) In December 1990, Pavle was chosen as the 44th Patriarch 
of the SOC, replacing Patriarch German just days before Slobodan 
Milosevic's Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) came to power in 
parliamentary elections.  Although he spoke out against the 
devastating effects of the Balkan wars on the people, Pavle initially 
did not clearly distance himself and the Church from the Milosevic 
regime and also traveled to Republika Srpska to support the Bosnian 
Serb leadership, where Radovan Karadzic was photographed kissing 
Pavle's ring.  He later waived Church "neutrality," participated in 
anti-government protests in 1997 and called for Milosevic to resign 
in 2000. 
¶4.    (SBU) Despite his extended hospitalization since 2007, which 
removed him from the public eye and reduced his Church role to that 
of figurehead, Pavle's death sparked an outpouring of emotion. The 
government announced a three-day mourning period beginning on 
November 16, and the parliament canceled its session scheduled for 
November 19.   Thousands of citizens stood in line outside the 
Cathedral Church in Belgrade, including through the night, to pay 
their last respects to the man sometimes referred to as the "walking 
saint" because of his humility and adherence to the monastic life. 
Amfilohije Caretaker Until "Hand of God" Election 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶5.    (U) At an emergency session observed by President Tadic on 
November 15, the five-member Holy Synod, or church government, 
appointed its current head, Metropolitan Amfilohije of Montenegro and 
the Coastlands, as "caretaker of the Patriarchal throne" and formed a 
committee, consisting of the Synod, clergy, and five government 
representatives, to oversee funeral arrangements.  In accordance with 
Patriarch Pavle's explicit wishes, he will be buried at the Rakovica 
Monastery near Belgrade, while the funeral service will take place at 
Belgrade's Saint Sava Church. 
 
¶6.    (U) Under the Church constitution, the Holy Synod is 
responsible for informing its clergy and followers that the Patriarch 
has "presented himself to God," which signals the start of the 
process of identifying his successor.  Although the constitution 
allots 90 days for the election of a new Patriarch, the Synod has 
declared 40 days of mourning and will not conduct an election before 
this period passes. 
 
¶7.    (U) Current election procedures, which may come under challenge 
as part of the "election campaign," are complicated.  Only bishops 
who have served five years or more in that capacity have the right to 
vote or be nominated, and their role is to identify three "finalists" 
through repeated rounds of elimination voting.  The final choice 
among the three candidates selected by the bishops is a "blind draw" 
in which an abbot from one of Orthodoxy's major monasteries, 
representing the "hand of God," chooses the Patriarch by selecting 
one of three sealed envelopes containing the candidates' names.  The 
new Patriarch typically is enthroned in the Cathedral Church in 
 
BELGRADE 00001356  002 OF 002 
 
 
Belgrade the day after his election, while the final enthroning 
ceremony takes place in the old seat of the Serbian Orthodox Church 
in Pec Patriarchy (Kosovo). 
 
Possible Successors 
------------------- 
 
¶8.    (SBU) Given the Patriarch's extended illness, during which the 
Sabor denied his October 2008 request to relinquish his position (Ref 
A), there has been much speculation about his successor and the topic 
has dominated recent Sabor sessions. As many as 10 names have figured 
prominently in press reports, and speculation - and jockeying for 
position among contenders - likely will increase exponentially in the 
weeks ahead. 
 
¶9.    (SBU) Most analysts believe that the current front-runner 
remains Metropolitan Amfilohije, due to his prominent role in the 
day-to-day activities of the Church.  While unpalatable to Western 
ears, his recent ill-advised stances on the anti-discrimination law, 
the cancelled Pride Parade (Refs B and C), and opposition to the 
Vojovodina Statute are unlikely to hurt his support within the SOC. 
Two other highly influential bishops - Bishop Irinej of Backa, Synod 
member and spokesperson, and Bishop Hrizostom of Zica - also are 
considered serious candidates from the old guard. Irinej is 
considered more ecumenical and thoughtful than Amfilohije.  Hrizostom 
previously administered the U.S. West Coast bishopric, but those 
familiar with him are impressed by how little an impression life in 
California seems to have made on him. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) A second group of potential successors consists of bishops 
aged 41 to 54 who are seen in some circles as unburdened by history 
and able to revitalize the Church.  Bishop Grigorije of Zahumlje and 
Herzegovina, bolstered by his May election to the Synod (Refs D and 
E) and reportedly enjoying support from close ties with Republika 
Srpska Prime Minister Milorad Dodik, in particular appears to be a 
candidate on the rise.  Bishop Fotije of Dalmatia, also selected to 
the Synod in May 2009, Bishop Joanikije of Budim and Niksic, and 
Bishop Ignatije of Pozarevac and Branicevo also are members of this 
group. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Seventy-eight-year old Bishop Irinej of Nis, vicar to 
Patriarch German and a Synod member since May 2009, and Bishop Jefrem 
of Banja Luka, who likely would enjoy support of the "Bosnian lobby," 
are seen as potential compromise candidates. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶12.    (SBU) Beloved by the Serbian Orthodox faithful for his 
humility and wisdom, Pavle left a legacy that is open to some 
interpretation.  His passing may be a blessing in disguise as it 
provides a much-needed opportunity for the SOC to address the 
Church's role in 21st century Serbia. A new Patriarch may be able to 
revitalize the Church, although it will be a challenge to emerge 
unscathed from the bruising battle for succession.  End Comment. 
BRUSH