VZCZCXRO6939
OO RUEHIK
DE RUEHTA #1953/01 3070645
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 030645Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY ASTANA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6747
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE 2106
RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 1600
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 1477
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 2178
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 1112
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFAAA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC 1666
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC 1525
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHMFISS/CDR USTRANSCOM SCOTT AFB IL
RUEHAST/USOFFICE ALMATY 1973

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ASTANA 001953 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/CEN, OES/PCI 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON SENV KZ
SUBJECT:  FIRST INTERNATIONAL ARAL SEA 2009 CONFERENCE 
 
ASTANA 00001953  001.3 OF 004 
 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY:  The Russian Academy of Sciences in St. Petersburg 
hosted the First International 2009 Aral Sea Conference on October 
11-15, with the participation of leading scientists from Russia, 
Central Asia, Europe, Israel, and the United States.  Zoological 
Institute Director Pugachev said the current desiccation appears to 
be a natural process that has been accelerated by intense 
irrigation.  Revival of the Aral Sea is highly unlikely without 
regional agreements on the social, economic, and political problems 
in the region.  The International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea, 
Karlikhanov, predicted the eastern portion of the large (southern) 
Aral Sea will completely disappear in 2010.  Less than 10% of river 
waters eventually flow into the Aral Sea.  If the existing 
"non-rational" use of water continues, Central Asia will face a 
severe water deficit beginning in 2020.  Restoration of the northern 
Aral Sea is the only positive development.  Eurasian Development 
Bank Sarsembekov said the Aral Sea is an ecological catastrophe, and 
Central Asia now faces the resulting political consequences. 
Competition for water resources will increase, and the Aral Sea's 
future depends on development of a joint resource management 
program.  Western Michigan University Professor and renowned Aral 
Sea expert Micklin said increasing irrigation far beyond the "level 
of sustainability" primarily caused the Aral Sea's modern recession, 
the most serious in the past several thousand years.  It is 
extremely unlikely that the Aral Sea will ever return to its size in 
¶1960.  The partial restoration of the northern Aral Sea is a 
success, but it needs to be continued before one can say it has been 
fully restored.  It is theoretically possible to restore the western 
Aral Sea, but much more study and investigation is needed to 
determine its worth.  Zoological Institute and noted Aral Sea expert 
Aladin said the Ministry of Water Resources of the Soviet Union 
"killed" the Aral Sea.  The Conference issued the St. Petersburg 
"Declaration on The Aral Sea," summarized in the cable.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
REGIONAL AGREEMENTS NEEDED, BUT TIME IS SHORT 
 
¶2.  The Russian Academy of Sciences in St. Petersburg hosted the 
First International 2009 Aral Sea Conference on October 11-15, with 
the participation of leading scientists from Russia, Central Asia, 
Europe, Israel, and the United States.  Zoological Institute of the 
Russian Academy of Sciences Director Oleg Pugachev opened the 
Conference with a general overview of the Aral Sea's past recessions 
and revivals.  He said the current desiccation appears to be a 
natural process accelerated by intense irrigation.  (NOTE:  The 
common word for agricultural activity throughout the conference was 
"irrigation," which this drafter will subsequently use.  END NOTE.) 
He believed the Aral Sea could revive again if one only considered 
purely natural factors.  However, this return is highly unlikely 
without regional agreements on the social, economic, and political 
problems in the region.  Unfortunately, it will be almost impossible 
to reach such agreements, or the process will be too slow, to permit 
the eventual restoration of the Aral Sea to its pre-1960 level. 
 
SEVERE WATER DEFICIT IN 2020 
 
¶3.  The International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea Executive 
Committee Member Torekhan Karlikhanov said the Aral Sea has rapidly 
desiccated in the past 40 years.  If this trend continues, the 
eastern portion of the large (southern) Aral Sea, which is already 
almost gone, will completely disappear in 2010. He added that an 
incomplete water resource management system, environmental pollution 
and loss of biodiversity, the absence of a regional program to adopt 
measures to ameliorate climate change, the inability to address and 
"solve" various social problems such as outward migration and 
unemployment, the lack of adequate drinking water and sanitation, 
and high salinity in the dust that hangs over the region affect the 
Aral Sea.  Karlikhanov said 91% of all water from the Amur- and 
Syr-Darya rivers is used for various purposes, such as irrigation, 
urban use, and hydro-electric power generation, and less than 10% of 
the river waters eventually flow into the Aral Sea.  Overall, 
agricultural productivity per cubic meter volume of water used is 
decreasing due to the "non-rational" use of water.  If this 
continues, he warned, Central Asia will face a severe water deficit 
beginning in 2020, as per capita water resources decline.  Central 
 
ASTANA 00001953  002.3 OF 004 
 
 
Asia's biggest problem currently is coordination of energy 
generation in the winter and water release for irrigation in the 
spring and summer. 
 
NORTH ARAL SEA RESTORATION IS THE SINGLE POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT 
 
¶4.  Karimhanov said that Kazakhstan, with World Bank assistance, 
undertook to restore the northern Aral Sea, and completed the first 
stage of the project in 2005.  A 13 kilometer long dam that 
separates the small (northern) Aral Sea from the large (southern) 
Aral Sea resulted.  The water level then increased from 30 meters 
above sea level to 42 meters, and the sea, once more than 100 
kilometers away from the former port city of Aralsk, is now only 23 
kilometers away.  The second phase, not yet implemented, will raise 
the water level higher and let the sea return to its original banks. 
 Fish stocks are thriving and fishermen are now returning to work. 
 
THE ARAL SEA IS AN ECOLOGICAL CATASTROPHE 
 
¶5.  Eurasian Development Bank Representative Tulegen Sarsembekov 
said there are now more than one million cubic kilometers of desert 
in Central Asia, and although only 5% of the land is considered 
"oasis"-like, it contains most of the heavily populated zones.  The 
Aral Sea, once the world's fourth largest inland body of water, has 
been steadily shrinking since the 1960s.  During the Soviet era, the 
government planned to divert water from Russia to Central Asia, but 
Gorbachev "killed" this plan in 1986.  Sarsembekov said arable lands 
have increased dramatically, and population centers have grown 
considerably in the region, including industry.  As a result, the 
existing water cannot adequately supply the needs.  (NOTE:  One 
participant interrupted and insisted that the problem is not an 
increase in population but poor agriculture planning and an increase 
in irrigation and power generation.  END NOTE.)  According to 
Sarsembekov, the Aral Sea is an ecological catastrophe, of which 
Central Asia now faces the political consequences.  Competition for 
water resources will increase, in part due to the failure to regard 
the Aral Sea zone as a complete zone, and in part due to the fact 
that countries have tended to solve their problems independently. 
He said the future of the Aral Sea depends on the ability of all 
countries in the region to develop a joint resource management 
program that gives adequate water resources to all.  A charter of 
cooperative partnership must be drafted so that all benefit from 
resources. 
 
CURRENT DESICCATION WORST IN SEVERAL THOUSAND YEARS 
 
¶6.  Western Michigan University Professor and renowned Aral Sea 
expert Philip Micklin rhetorically asked whether the Aral Sea has a 
future.  He noted that the Aral Sea had desiccated and refilled 
several times during the past 10,000 years, with the changing course 
of the Amu- and Syr-Darya rivers as the major cause.  However, since 
the 1960s, the water level has dropped primarily due to an increase 
in water use for irrigation far beyond the "level of 
sustainability."  Micklin said the modern recession of the Aral Sea 
is the most serious in the past several thousand years.  If it 
continues at its current pace, it will be the worst in the past ten 
million years.  It is extremely unlikely that the Aral Sea will ever 
return to its 1960 size.  He noted the success of the partial 
restoration of the northern Aral Sea, but it must continue before 
one can call it fully restored.  The partial restoration of the 
north Aral Sea cost at least $84 million, but the investment appears 
worthwhile.  While scientists should continue to investigate the 
northern Aral Sea's partial restoration, he said, preservation of 
the eastern Aral Sea appears hopeless, because it has practically 
disappeared. 
 
¶7.  According to Micklin, it is very important to preserve the 
remainder of the Amu- and Syr-Darya river delta systems, their 
ecosystem, and biodiversity.  Donors should also invest in programs 
to increase the health and welfare of the region's residents.  He 
called restoration of the Aral Sea in the near future difficult due 
to the enormous amount of water and huge decrease in irrigation 
required, which is highly unlikely.  Up to now, climate change has 
not been a major factor in the Aral Sea's desiccation, but it will 
 
ASTANA 00001953  003.3 OF 004 
 
 
certainly become more of one in the future.  Micklin asserted that 
restoration of the western Aral Sea is theoretically possible, but 
would need much more study and investigation to determine its worth. 
 Siberian river diversion is a very doubtful solution, he said, 
because of its high cost and complication.  Plus, strong opposition 
to this idea exists inside Russia, and international support from 
donors is lacking. 
 
ARAL SEA IS DEAD DUE TO SOVIET-ERA IRRIGATION POLICIES 
 
¶8.  Russian Academy of Sciences Zoological Institute Professor, 
noted Aral Sea expert, and Conference-organizer Nikolay Aladin said 
that, in spite of its high level of salinity, all the Aral Sea zones 
are still "alive" with fish species, invertebrates, and flora, but 
their ecosystem differs from before.  Many of the introduced species 
carried infections and parasites, and some devoured all the 
plankton, with a negative impact on the existing environment.  "Who 
killed the Aral Sea?" Aladin asked several times during the 
conference.  "I'll tell you who killed the Aral Sea.  It was the 
Ministry of Water Resources of the Soviet Union!"  He said that, 
even considering natural changes, the Aral Sea would not have 
disappeared if not for the extreme impact of the current system of 
irrigation created during the Soviet era.  One can now say, he 
stressed, that the Aral Sea as a geological object disappeared 20 
years ago.  "The Aral Sea is dead!  Long live the Aral Sea!"  In 
effect, two Aral Seas exist, small and large.  Fishing is now 
restricted to the northern Aral Sea, because the western Aral Sea is 
too salty.  In 2010, the eastern Aral Sea, now almost dried up, will 
completely disappear, and only the western Aral Sea and Tshchebas 
Bay will remain. 
 
ARAL SEA CONFERENCE DECLARATION 
 
¶9.  The Conference issued a St. Petersburg "Declaration on The Aral 
Sea," noting that the Aral Sea has undergone unprecedented shrinking 
and salinization since the 1960s, which negatively impacts the sea 
and nearby inhabitants.  The Aral Sea's current desiccation results 
primarily from the expansion of irrigation in the sea's drainage 
basin during the Soviet era that exceeded sustainability, which led 
to a marked decline of river inflow to the sea.  Global warming, 
while real, has not majorly caused the Aral's desiccation since the 
1960s, but its importance will increase in the future. 
 
¶10.  The Conference Declaration states that diversion (e.g. 
redirection) of Siberian rivers southward to the Aral Sea Basin or 
pumping water from the Caspian to the Aral cannot realistically 
solve water problems in Central Asia because of their expensiveness, 
complication, requirement of complex international agreements, and 
serious potential environmental consequences.  It recommends instead 
a focus on local and regional solutions to these key issues, such as 
improved efficiency of water use in irrigation and efforts to 
preserve and partially restore remaining parts of the Aral Sea. 
 
¶11.  The Conference Declaration optimistically states that "reports 
of the Aral Sea's death are premature."  The Small (north) Aral Sea 
has been partially restored.  Although the Eastern Basin of the 
Large Aral is lost, the Western Basin can be preserved, as can major 
parts of the Syr and Amu Dar'ya deltas.  The Aral Sea of the 1960s 
is gone, but preservation of a much smaller Aral Sea consisting of 
two sizable lakes that have ecological and economic value remains 
feasible.  Furthermore, in the more distant future, substantially 
increased inflow to the sea and restoration of the Aral close to its 
former size may be possible.  Such developments happened in the past 
and could be possible again.  (COMMENT: This optimistic note was a 
point of contention at the conference.  The declaration is a 
graceful compromise between the skeptics of the Aral Sea's return 
and those who want to downplay the human factor and the threat that 
the current global warming trend poses to the region.  This observer 
would caution not to put too much hope on the likelihood of its 
return.  END COMMENT.) 
 
¶12.  The Declaration concludes that future study of the Aral Sea and 
its surrounding region should be a balance of theoretical and 
applied science and involve scientists from different disciplines 
 
ASTANA 00001953  004.3 OF 004 
 
 
and countries.  Special efforts should be made to attract and engage 
younger-generation scientists and researchers to Aral Sea problems 
in order to secure long-term, scientific commitment and continued 
international dialogue.  The International Fund for Saving the Aral 
Sea should co-operate with leading scientists all over the World, 
including Russia (NOTE:  This last phrase required some negotiation. 
 END NOTE). 
 
¶13.  COMMENT:  While some of the scientific community's opinions 
diverged, the majority concluded that the current desiccation of the 
Aral Sea is a man-made disaster caused by the Soviet Union's 
intensification of "irrigation" (e.g., cotton production in 
Uzbekistan) in the early 1960s.  Kazakhstan's effort to restore the 
Northern Aral Sea was the only positive note in the conference, but 
the consensus is that this renewal cannot serve as a model to revive 
either the western or eastern Aral Seas.  In addition, climate 
change may affect the future viability of the Aral Sea (including 
the restored north Aral Sea) if the Amur-Darya and Syr-Darya rivers 
begin to lose water because of receding glaciers.  Additional 
hydroelectric projects may also further reduce water flow, 
eventually threatening even the Northern Aral Sea.  Nevertheless, 
while donor agencies (including the U.S. government) may still find 
opportunities to fund various cooperative scientific and 
humanitarian projects, reviving the Aral Sea is not likely to be 
among them.  END COMMENT. 
 
HOAGLAND