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RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHAN #0818/01 3311100
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 271100Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3069
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CDR USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANTANANARIVO 000818 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E MARIA BEYZEROV 
DEPT PASS TO USAID/AFR/EA ASHLEY MARCUS 
DOC FOR RTELCHIN 
TREASURY FOR FRANCOIS BOYE 
PARIS FOR WALLACE BAIN 
LONDON FOR PETER LORD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EINV MA
SUBJECT: ANTANANARIVO POL/ECON WEEKLY UPDATE (27-NOV-2009) 
 
REF: 09 ANTANANARIVO 804, 09 ANTANANARIVO 791, 09 ANTANANARIVO 812 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY: This is U.S. Embassy Antananarivo's Weekly Update 
for November 16-27, an unclassified review of major political, 
economic, and commercial events and information from the U.S. 
Mission to Madagascar and the Comoros. 
 
POLITICS (Paragraphs 2-8) 
- AU/UN Evaluation Mission 
- Continued Blockage on Transition Cabinet 
- International Community Engages, Slowly 
- Rajoelina's Hardliners Refuse Compromise 
- Political Prisoners Still in Limbo 
- Human Rights Working Group Focuses on Elections 
 
ECONOMIC AND COMMERCIAL (Paragraphs 9-10) 
- Madagascar Down in Transparency International Ratings 
- Civil Society Seeks to Stop Illegal Wood Exports 
 
COMOROS (Paragraphs 11-12) 
- Self-Help Signing Ceremony 
- New Airline Connection to Moroni 
 
END SUMMARY 
 
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POLITICS 
-------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) AU/UN EVALUATION MISSION: An AU/UN/OIF assessment team 
briefed the local international contact group (ICG) on its Nov 25-27 
mission to Madagascar on Nov 27. Following meetings with transition 
President Rajoelina, PM Mangalaza, Co-Presidents Andrianirina and 
Rakotovahiny, and National Reconciliation Council President Zafy, 
the team asserted that an agreement on seven disputed cabinet 
positions (see paragraph 3) was possible soon, and that SADC 
mediator President Chissano may arrive Nov 30 to facilitate an 
agreement.  The DCM and the French Ambassador noted the need for 
speed to safeguard AGOA and EU benefits.  The World Bank Resrep 
added that USD 64 million in education funds also hang in the 
balance. 
 
¶3. (SBU) During its meetings, the evaluation team urged the Malagasy 
leaders to name the members of the other transition institutions, as 
well, and define clear working procedures for the presidential 
council.  They explained that a permanent AU/UN/SADC/OIF follow-up 
mechanism, which would coordinate closely with the ICG, would be 
installed in early December to ensure day-to-day oversight of the 
implementation of the Maputo Accords, as well as address long-term 
structural governance problems.  The joint AU/UN mission was a 
welcome sign of improved coordination between those entities. 
 
¶4. (SBU) CONTINUED BLOCKAGE ON TRANSITION CABINET: After failing to 
form a transition government by the self-imposed deadline of 
November 21, the four movements started the week with talk of yet 
another summit abroad.  With the deadline drawing near on AGOA, and 
little patience anywhere for further delays to the electoral 
calendar, this proposal was poorly received.  Several members of the 
contact group met on November 24 with the top four transition 
leaders to implore them to solve this blockage in-country, and 
quickly (ref C). 
 
¶5. (SBU) INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY ENGAGES, SLOWLY: Preparing for the 
day when a transition government finally takes shape, the 
international community has been cautiously taking steps to 
re-engage (ref B) after nine months of the silent treatment.  With 
the top four positions now equitably shared among the four 
movements, the P-5 and other ambassadors have begun making courtesy 
calls in hopes of encouraging further progress.  Concurrent missions 
from the UN, the Francophonie, and the Indian Ocean Commission 
conducted an assessment November 16 to 20 of electoral capacity, and 
plan to join forces on further engagement through a "coordination 
cell" to be set up at the UNDP in Antananarivo (ref B). 
 
¶6. (SBU) RAJOELINA'S HARDLINERS REFUSE COMPROMISE: Hardliner 
factions among supporters of Rajoelina are opposing any moves by 
Rajoelina to accept further negotiation or compromise in the 
transition power-sharing agreement.  The KMDT (Committee to Protect 
Democracy and the Transition) has threatened to call people back in 
the street if no solution is found this week; they even stated that 
no entity leader - not even Rajoelina - will be allowed back in 
 
ANTANANARI 00000818  002 OF 003 
 
 
Madagascar if they hold another summit abroad.  Per the KMDT, 
accepting compromise and more negotiation will mean ignoring the 
2009 "struggle" and the deaths (from January to March) of Rajoelina 
supporters.  The extent of the KMDT's support should not be 
overestimated, but the movement has gotten considerable media 
attention. 
 
¶7. (SBU) POLITICAL PRISONERS STILL IN LIMBO: Despite recent 
political agreements, three high-profile prisoners are still in 
custody.  Parliamentarian and former TIM Spokesperson Raharinaivo 
Andrianantoandro was granted bail after his recent hunger strike, 
but has decided to remain in custody and hospitalized until his 
early-December trial, in solidarity with his fellow prisoners.  The 
court of appeals has again denied bail, without explanation, to the 
High Constitutional Court's former security chief Ralitera 
Andrianandraina after seven months of detention.  Rabemananjara 
Lalaharinoro, lawyer to Manandafy Rakotonirina, has spent almost 
five months in jail despite her reportedly precarious health status; 
her daughter asserts that the August 2009 Maputo accords should have 
provided for her release. 
 
¶8. (U) HUMAN RIGHTS WORKING GROUP FOCUSES ON ELECTIONS: The 
Embassy's popular Human Rights Working Group focused this month on 
the right to participate in one's government.  Guest speakers from 
the UNDP, local election monitoring organization KMF/CNOE, and law 
professor and human rights activist Heri Raoera Chandoutis focused 
on lessons from the last round of elections, and issues that must be 
addressed in preparation for the next series.  Around 60 members of 
civil society were in attendance. 
 
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ECONOMIC AND COMMERCIAL 
----------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) MADAGASCAR DOWN IN TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL RATINGS: 
Madagascar dropped 14 places in Transparency International's 
Corruption Perception Index (CPI) in 2009, ranking 99 out of the 180 
countries included in the study.  Its score of 3.0 (with 10 
representing no corruption) bucks a three-year trend of continual 
(if marginal) improvement since 2006, and puts it even with Senegal, 
Zambia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina.  As the index is based on data 
from both 2008 and 2009, the 2009 political crisis may not account 
for all of the loss, but there is little question that corruption 
has worsened since the March 2009 coup. 
 
¶10. (SBU) CIVIL SOCIETY SEEKS TO STOP ILLEGAL WOOD EXPORTS: On 
November 16, Alliance Voahary Gasy (Alliance for Malagasy Nature) 
filed suit against the ministries of Environment and Forests, 
Commerce, and Finance to repeal inter-ministerial order no. 38 
244/2009, which allows for the exportation of non-processed precious 
woods from September 21 through November 30, 2009.  The Alliance 
contends that the order violates the constitution and existing law; 
the export of unprocessed precious woods has been illegal in 
Madagascar since 2002.  According to a GTZ-funded report, 1,211 
containers of precious wood have left Madagascar since February 
2009, a process which has caused environmental degradation, 
intimidation of civil servants, money laundering and a loss of 
biodiversity.  While civil society is generally weak in Madagascar, 
the emergence of a strong environmental voice and this new alliance 
is an encouraging development; many of these organizations have 
benefitted from USG assistance in the past. 
 
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COMOROS 
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¶11. (U) SELF-HELP SIGNING CEREMONY: During two Special Self-Help 
signing ceremonies this past weekend in the Comoros, USD 60,000 was 
obligated to fund 11 small development projects.  Four of these 
projects are from beneficiaries on Grande Comore, six are from 
Anjouan, and one is from Moheli.  These projects will focus on clean 
water and sanitation, agriculture, education, and income generation. 
 
 
¶12. (U) NEW AIRLINE CONNECTION TO MORONI: A Kenyan private airline, 
African Express, has begun flights linking the Comoran capital, 
Moroni, to the Kenyan capital, Nairobi.  The flights will operate 
twice weekly, and will stop each way in Mombasa, Kenya's second 
city. 
 
 
 
ANTANANARI 00000818  003 OF 003 
 
 
MARQUARDT