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P 231431Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3048
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
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RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0200
RHMFISS/CDR USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE PRIORITY
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000804 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/E MARIA BEYZEROV 
PARIS FOR WALLACE BAIN 
LONDON FOR PETER LORD 
STATE PLEASE PASS USTR FOR WJACKSON AND CHAMILTON 
AID/AFR FOR AMARCUS, JMEADOWS 
AID/DCHA CADAMCZYK 
DOC FOR RTELCHIN 
TREAS FOR FBOYE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV MA
SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR: ELECTIONS FEASIBLE IN 2010, PENDING 
POLITICAL PROGRESS 
 
REF: A. 09 ANTANANARIVO 791 
     ¶B. 09 ANTANANARIVO 767 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Concurrent missions from the UN, the 
Francophonie (OIF), and the Indian Ocean Commission (COI) 
conducted a brief evaluation from November 16 to 20 of 
Madagascar's legal and institutional capacity to hold 
elections in 2010.  The three organizations shared their 
preliminary conclusions with the diplomatic community on 
November 20; despite a lengthy list of challenges for the 
still-unformed transition government, they were optimistic 
that the international community could play a useful role, 
and plan to create a joint "coordination cell" within the 
UNDP for that purpose.  The representatives refrained from 
commenting publicly on an election timetable, but noted 
privately that the planned referendum on a revised 
constitution was unlikely to take place before April 2010, 
with presidential and legislative elections to follow several 
months later.  At present, further action is blocked by the 
lack of a transition government, but once Madagascar has 
passed that hurdle, several diplomatic missions are prepared 
to engage, mostly via the UNDP, with substantial financial 
and technical resources. END SUMMARY. 
 
A SHIFTING ELECTION TIMETABLE 
----------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Following recent progress in Addis Ababa (ref B), 
some in the embryonic transition government have spent the 
last two weeks raising hopes that the transition would 
conclude by June 26 - the symbolically important 50th 
anniversary of independence from France in 1960.  At present, 
this looks unlikely; the transition government will be faced 
with significant institutional and logistical challenges 
(paras 3 to 6), not the least of which is Madagascar's 
cyclone season, which extends from January to April. 
According to Tadjoudine Ali Diabacte, Deputy Director of the 
UN Electoral Assistance Division, the UN will not be in a 
position to assist if there's not at least a four-month lead 
time to the first event, whether it's a referendum or the 
presidential election.  Given that several diplomatic 
missions, including France, Norway, South Africa, the E.U., 
and the U.S. intend to funnel the bulk of their assistance 
through the UNDP coordination cell, this effectively blocks 
outside assistance for events prior to March at best. 
Although neither Diabacte nor the representatives from the 
OIF or the COI would comment specifically on timeframes in 
public, Diabacte commented privately to the Ambassador on 
November 17 that a more realistic timetable would put the 
referendum in May or June, to be followed later by 
presidential and legislative elections. 
 
CHALLENGES FOR THE NEW GOVERNMENT 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) There are several key steps between the formation of 
the transition government and the creation of the National 
Independent Electoral Commission (CENI), each of which could 
further delay GOM preparations and international assistance. 
Once the government is in place, the National Reconciliation 
Council (CNR, called for in the August 9 Charter) is charged 
with organizing a series of regional and national conferences 
to debate changes to the current constitution, which will 
form the basis of the planned referendum.  These may include 
debate on age limits (to allow Rajoelina, currently 5 years 
shy of the constitutional minimum of 40, to participate), the 
balance of power between the presidency and the prime 
minister, the structure and autonomy of Madagascar's 
constituent territorial divisions, and the independence of 
the judiciary.  (Note: CRN President Albert Zafy told Emboffs 
privately that the consitutional age limit was unlikely to be 
lowered during this process.  End note.)  At the first such 
 
ANTANANARI 00000804  002 OF 002 
 
 
national conference, the CNR will design and launch the CENI, 
at which point it will take over from the current National 
Electoral Council (CNE) within the Ministry of the Interior. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The Charter leaves most of the details of the CENI 
up to the conference.  It is unclear whether it will 
completely take over the manpower and resources to organize 
and conduct elections or be limited to a supervisory capacity 
over the pre-existing bureaucracy.  Its size, composition, 
and budget are still to be determined, including whether the 
political movements will be able to control nominations, or 
if they'll seek to fill it with "neutral" functionaries.  All 
parties agree that it must be formed as soon as possible - 
but may still have significantly different visions of its 
ultimate shape. 
 
¶5. (SBU) The UN, OIF, and COI missions identified several 
challenges that the CENI will face once it's established. 
The UNDP has long advocated for a switch to a single ballot, 
to replace the current multiple ballot system; while this 
switch will require significant voter education and carries 
with it no guarantee that it won't be manipulated, it is 
generally considered cheaper, easier to administer equitably, 
and less prone to vote buying.  There is also much work to be 
done on the voter registration list, thought to be extremely 
inaccurate despite efforts to computerize the system for the 
2006 vote.  Madagascar has not had a census since the 1990s, 
and voter registration efforts in recent years have been 
uneven and contentious; the UNDP estimates that there may be 
up to three million eligible voters not on the list, although 
facts concerning population and age distribution are scarce. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Finally, there is recognition at all levels that 
extensive voter education and media training programs will be 
necessary, whether for managing the transition to a single 
ballot, ensuring that opposition candidates have access to 
the airwaves, or explaining the stakes of the constitutional 
referendum.  There are numerous civil society organizations 
and international organizations that intend to engage in this 
aspect of the election process, once the transition 
government has formed.  These needs are not new; former 
president Ravalomanana recognized publicly the need for 
reform, but declined to act.  The CENI itself is specifically 
mandated in the Maputo Charter to ensure that these issues 
are addressed, although it is not necessarily required to 
finance or conduct them itself. 
 
LINING UP TO HELP - BUT OUR HANDS ARE STILL TIED 
------------------ ----------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) COMMENT: This visit marks an important step forward 
in international engagement, but no further progress can be 
made until the transition government has been formed. 
Diabacte, in his closing remarks on November 20, made clear 
that the UN cannot move faster than Madagascar's political 
leadership in addressing these needs, but the international 
community is doing all it can to be ready once the government 
finally takes shape.  The final electoral calendar will be a 
compromise between the universal desire to hold elections as 
soon as possible, and a sober analysis of the system's flaws 
which contributed to crises in both 2002 and 2009.  Elections 
are feasible in 2010, but only if further progress is quickly 
made to implement the Maputo Charter.  While the US mission 
and other partners will continue to push the transition 
authorities to move as quickly as possible, and all parties 
profess their desire to stay on schedule, the Charter gives 
them until November 2010 for the final round of voting. END 
COMMENT. 
MARQUARDT