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P 191405Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3033
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANTANANARIVO 000791 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/E - MBEYZEROV 
STATE FOR AF/EPS - ANEWTON 
STATE PLEASE PASS TO USTR FOR CHAMILTON AND WJACKSON 
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR RTELCHIN AND KBOYD 
TREASURY FOR FBOYE AND AIERONIMO 
NSC FOR MGAVIN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV MA
SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR: INTERNATIONAL ENGAGEMENT BEGINS 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  The implementation of the transition charter 
agreed to in Maputo by Madagascar's four main political rivals has 
begun.  The leadership of a new power-sharing transition government 
has been installed, including a consensus prime minister, president 
of congress, the transition president, two co-presidents, and the 
president of the national reconciliation council (CNR).  According 
to the co-presidency, the full cabinet is to be announced Nov 21, 
with the national reconciliation council and legislature following 
on Nov 23 and 25, respectively.  Elections evaluation teams from the 
UN and other entities have arrived, and the "P-5" ambassadors have 
begun making courtesy calls on the transition officials to show the 
international community's support for the unity government.  AGOA 
eligibility, which has received extensive media coverage this week, 
continues to be the main leverage point for pressing for rapid 
progress toward a return to constitutional rule, not only used by 
the USG, but others in the international community.  Additional 
leverage comes from the threat of EU sanctions under the Cotonou 
Article 96 process, which will almost certainly be avoided if the 
new government and an elections roadmap are settled quickly.  End 
Summary. 
 
Progress towards Constitutional Rule 
---------------- 
¶2. (SBU) The transition charter agreed to in Maputo in August has 
begun being implemented.  Long, hard negotiations are beginning to 
show real results.  On Nov 13, consensus Prime Minister Eugene 
Mangalaza took the reigns from de facto PM Monja Roindefo in a 
ceremony attended by the local diplomatic corps.  The new PM told 
the Ambassador on Nov 18 that he has already begun to work, 
including meeting with the secretaries general of key ministries to 
ensure continuity and shoring up his own office after Monja's 
disastrous tenure.  He is in charge of consultations with the four 
political movements to finalize the government and has been in 
frequent contact with the president, co-presidents, and movement 
leaders for that end.  Former President Zafy, now the president of 
the national reconciliation council (CRN, also created by Maputo), 
also contacted the other three movements this week to request the 
names of their representatives to the CRN.  President of Congress 
Mamy Rakotoarivelo has been installed and is working to launch the 
congress.  He explained to the Ambassador that the Ravalomanana 
movement has already chosen its 52 members, but that other movements 
are waiting until the government is finalized before naming to the 
congress those who didn't "make the first cut." 
 
¶3. (SBU) UN, Indian Ocean Commission (COI), and the International 
Francophony Organization (OIF) elections evaluation teams arrived 
the week of Nov 16 to begin their assessments.  Transition President 
Rajoelina convoked a presidential council meeting on Nov 18 with the 
two co-presidents and the prime minister.  Following the three-hour 
meeting, Rajoelina declared on public television that the members of 
the consensus cabinet would be announced Nov 21, the national 
reconciliation commission would be set up Nov 23, and the congress 
and senate would be installed Nov 25.  Rajoelina has reportedly 
called another presidential council meeting for Nov 19 to discuss 
coordination procedures and follow-up on the status of cabinet 
formation. 
 
International Engagement 
------------------------ 
¶4. (SBU) The international community, including the U.S., has begun 
publicly engaging with the new transition leaders to show support 
for the unity government.  The French ambassador formally presented 
his credentials to transition President Rajoelina Nov 10; he was the 
only resident ambassador not having presented credentials.  The 
diplomatic corps attended the ceremony in which the former PM passed 
power to the new consensus PM on Nov 13.  The same day, the 
diplomatic corps issued a communique applauding the progress to 
date, but encouraging the full, prompt implementation of the Maputo 
and Addis agreements.  The week of Nov 16, the French, Chinese, 
Russian, and US Ambassadors paid courtesy calls on the new 
co-presidents, the head of congress, and the consensus prime 
minister to demonstrate international community support for the new 
power-sharing government. 
 
¶5. (SBU) During the Ambassador's meetings this week with Transition 
President Rajoelina's chief of staff, Co-President Rakotovahiny, 
Prime Minister Mangalaza, and Congress President Rakotoarivelo, he 
urged them to embrace their new responsibilities and work promptly 
towards the full implementation of the transition charter, leading 
 
ANTANANARI 00000791  002 OF 003 
 
 
to elections by November 2010, as called for in Maputo.  He noted 
the urgency of concrete implementation measures, particularly as 
Madagascar's eligibility for African Growth and Opportunity Act 
(AGOA) trade benefits are under discussion in Washington.  His 
interlocutors, already well-informed of the stakes involved in the 
AGOA decision, said they were working towards full implementation of 
the charter but that negotiations over the division of ministries 
were complicated by historical animosities, allegations of 
corruption, ethnic/regional considerations, and electoral ambitions. 
 Despite these obstacles, they had reached agreement on all but 
three out of 28 posts.  They understood the urgency to resolve the 
remaining disagreements.  The French Ambassador also made the same 
points on AGOA in calls on Transition President Rajoelina and 
others.  (The U.S. ambassador has not yet called publicly on 
Rajoelina; septel will address this and other related issues.) 
 
Elections Timetable 
------------------- 
¶6. (SBU) The Ambassador also encouraged Rajoelina's foreign minister 
and former President Zafy to work towards rapid implementation of 
the Maputo charter during meetings this week.  Zafy confirmed to the 
Ambassador his intention to finalize the election commission (CENI) 
in December.  As president of the national reconciliation council, 
Zafy is in charge of establishing the CENI, for which he said the 
implementing texts have already been prepared.  Zafy added that he 
envisages the following rough electoral calendar (conforming to the 
Maputo charter deadline of November 2010):  national conference and 
standing-up of CENI in December 2009; constitutional referendum in 
April; presidential and legislative elections in the Sept-Oct 
timeframe.  Although Zafy and others had previously pushed an 
earlier timetable, the UN elections assessment team leader favors 
this less rushed version as it will more realistically accommodate 
the multitude of steps required before holding credible elections. 
 
AGOA in the Press 
----------------- 
¶7. (SBU) AGOA has been in the press here since April, but it has 
become a focal point of discussion as the deadline has drawn near. 
Following meetings with the president of the transition congress and 
the consensus prime minister Nov 17 and 18, the Ambassador was 
interviewed by the local press and explained that the AGOA decision 
is underway and that the Malagasy leaders must act now to show 
further progress.  Television and newspaper coverage has been 
extensive. Politicians and the public alike are informed of the 
timetable for the AGOA decision and are watching carefully. 
 
International Community Stance 
------------------------------ 
¶8. (SBU) The local international contact group met at the South 
African Embassy Nov 18 to discuss the current political situation. 
The group agreed to give the transition leaders a few more days to 
install the full cabinet before issuing a communique to encourage 
such action and possibly call for the international mediators to 
return to Madagascar.  The group further agreed that it would be 
best for the Malagasy to settle the remaining issues regarding the 
cabinet internally if possible.  The German Ambassador, representing 
the Swedish EU Presidency that ends on December 31, called for a new 
government "by the end of the week" in order to satisfy the urgent 
EU Presidency call for a new round of formal political dialogue with 
Madagascar. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Contacts from the European Union explained separately to 
Emboff that the EU will likely opt for a "benchmark" approach 
similar to that proposed by State for the AGOA discussions, 
including implementation of the government, setting up of the 
independent electoral commission, and the setting of a firm 
elections timetable.  The EU froze around Euros 630 million of aid 
last March, but will likely turn on programs progressively as each 
of these benchmarks are met.  As long as the transition is 
continuing to make progress, the EU is unlikely to impose new 
sanctions or cut any of the frozen aid programs, but will continue 
to encourage the move towards elections.  The African Union has 
declared that it plans to reinstate Madagascar once the cabinet is 
in place and a roadmap is established for holding elections.  On Nov 
17, the UN Security Council welcomed the power-sharing agreement, 
noted that the UN elections team was deployed already, and called 
for formation of the transition government as soon as possible. 
 
Comment 
 
ANTANANARI 00000791  003 OF 003 
 
 
------- 
¶10. (SBU) The USG will be sharply out of step with the UN, SADC, AU, 
EU, and the French if we undermine a painstaking process that we too 
have been supporting for months just as it is finally showing 
results.  Suspension of AGOA benefits at this time would make us an 
outlier among the international community and would severely damage 
our future bilateral relationship with Madagascar.  (A timely 
reminder of the usefulness of that relationship will come today when 
Madagascar votes in favor of the Human Rights Resolution on Iran, 
the USG's top human rights objective at this year's UNGA.) 
Furthermore, the widespread suffering and economic dislocation that 
would result from AGOA suspension would undermine, rather than 
support, ongoing efforts to return Madagascar to constitutional 
rule.  End comment. 
 
MARQUARDT