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P 091525Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ANTANANARIVO 000767 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/E MARIA BEYZEROV AND EEB/TPP/BTA AHOLMAN 
PARIS FOR WALLACE BAIN 
LONDON FOR PETER LORD 
STATE PLEASE PASS USTR FOR WJACKSON AND CHAMILTON 
DOC FOR RTELCHIN 
TREAS FOR FBOYE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV MA
SUBJECT: MALAGASY LEADERS STRIKE A DEAL IN ADDIS ABABA 
 
REF: A. 09 ANTANANARIVO 752 
     ¶B. 09 ANTANANARIVO 747 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: This is an action request; see paragraph 
¶12.  Three months after Madagascar's four main political 
leaders signed their breakthrough Transition Charter in 
Maputo, the long-awaited transition government is finally on 
the starting blocks.  Over four days of talks in Addis Ababa, 
Andry "TGV" Rajoelina and former Presidents Ravalomanana, 
Ratsiraka, and Zafy reached agreement on almost all of the 
top positions in the transition government, as well as a 
number of modifications to the August 9 Charter that should 
allow them to move beyond the current political impasse: 
Rajoelina keeps his position as president and head of state, 
Ravalomanana maintains influence without personally 
participating, Ratsiraka and Zafy keep their 
disproportionately large representation in all of the 
transition bodies, and the remaining details to be decided, 
though not insignificant, will not require further 
"summit-level" talks.  While imperfect, this agreement is a 
breakthrough that offers the first real hope that Madagascar 
will soon move from crisis to transition, and plausibly hold 
free and fair elections by the end of 2010.  The agreement 
has already garnered praise from UN SYG Ban Ki-Moon and 
French FM Kouchner; Post strongly urges that vocal support 
follow from Washington as soon as possible (suggested text in 
paragraph 12). END SUMMARY. 
 
SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS IN IMPLEMENTING THE MAPUTO ACCORDS 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) In the wee hours of November 7, the four leaders 
signed an addendum to the August 9 Charter of the Transition, 
finally naming individuals to most of the key positions in 
the transition government, and making some slight 
modifications to the original charter.  Rajoelina remains 
president and head of state, but shares power with two 
"co-presidents": Fetison Andrianirina, a lead negotiator 
within Ravalomanana's movement, and Emmanuel Rakotovahiny, 
nominated in October by Zafy for the position of vice 
president, which has now been eliminated.  The two 
co-presidents make up a "Presidential Council", charged with 
"assisting" the president; their signature is required on 
presidential acts taken in cabinet meetings, but it remains 
unclear how much influence they'll have beyond this advisory 
capacity. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Eugene Mangalaza, a Ratsiraka nominee accepted in 
October by the four movements as a consensus Prime Minister, 
retains his position, and may now be able to take the reigns 
of government; his nomination had been blocked by outgoing PM 
Roindefo Monja, who at present has not been given any role in 
the transition government.  Mangalaza will have three vice 
prime ministers (one each from the other three movements), 
and there will be 31 cabinet-level positions - six for each 
of the political movements, plus an additional seven for 
"other entities", expected to include civil society 
organizations and the business community.  Assignment of 
specific ministries began in Addis and will continue in 
Madagascar this week; there is already agreement on at least 
seven ministries, including interior.  The most contentious 
remaining portfolios are justice, finance, and mines and 
hydrocarbons. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The four also reached agreement on the basic 
composition and leadership of the other transitional 
government bodies, although each movement will now have to 
directly nominate roughly 80 individuals to fill their 
respective quotas across the six separate entities.  These 
are as follows: 
 
- Mamy Rakotoarivelo, nominated by Ravalomanana, will be 
President of the Transition Congress (Congres de Transition, 
equivalent to the former National Assembly), with 52 members 
per movement, and 50 for "other entities", totaling 258 
members. 
 
 
ANTANANARI 00000767  002 OF 004 
 
 
- A Rajoelina nominee will be President of the High 
Transition Council (Conseil Superior de Transition, 
equivalent to the former Senate), with 13 members per 
movement, totaling 65. 
 
- Albert Zafy himself will be President of the Council for 
National Reconciliation (Conseil National de Reconciliation, 
or CNR), with two members per movement in addition to Zafy, 
totaling nine. 
 
- The High Transition Court (Haute Cour de Transition) will 
have 11 members, four of which will be directly nominated by 
the political movements, and the remaining seven will be 
nominated by other government bodies listed here. 
 
- The Economic and Social Council (Conseil Economique et 
Social) will have 72 members, with 10 per movement and 32 for 
civil society organizations. 
 
- The Think Tank on Defense and National Security (Comite de 
Reflexion sur la Defense et la Securite Nationale) will have 
eight members, with two per movement. 
 
¶5. (SBU) In addition, they have committed to implementing the 
planned National Independent Electoral Commission (Commission 
Electorale Nationale Independante, or CENI) no later than 
December 2009, as part of the first national conference. 
Article 12 of the addendum also reiterates their request for 
the African Union to set up a follow-up mechanism in 
accordance with the original charter, to remain involved in 
the implementation of the charter. 
 
POSITIVE SIGNS 
-------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Overall, this agreement is an important, positive 
step forward.  The selection of top-level leadership (with 
buy-in from Rajoelina and Ravalomanana) for these key 
positions clears the path to form the rest of the transition 
bodies.  Most of the key stakeholders are represented, even 
if some of the smaller interests (such as former PM Monja's 
limited support base) have missed out on this round.  Just as 
importantly, there is no need for any further "summits", 
either here or abroad - none of the remaining positions 
should require the personal intervention of the four leaders, 
even if there are still some contentious ministerial 
positions left to be decided. 
 
¶7. (SBU) This agreement also confirms support for the 
original election calendar put forth in the Maputo charter. 
Once the CNR is formed (under Zafy), a new round of "national 
meetings" will take place, during which the CENI (electoral 
commission) will be formed.  Early estimates for a referendum 
on a revised constitution range from January to May (despite 
the rainy season), and subsequent elections could take place 
as early as June - but no later than November, per the 
charter.  According to UN Senior Mediator Tiebile Drame, the 
GOM will need significant donor support for the CNR and its 
work, which will have a direct impact on the revised 
constitution, and on the electoral calendar itself; post is 
evaluating avenues for possibly providing assistance.  Also 
of note is a new provision in this addendum requiring the 
president and the co-presidents to step down 60 days before 
elections if they intend to participate in them.  The 
addendum maintains the restrictions against any other members 
of the government running in the election. 
 
CHALLENGES REMAIN 
----------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Mangalaza, now back in Tana, said that the 
government would be formed rapidly, and they would quickly 
get to work implementing the charter, but there remain 
several points of possible contention in the coming weeks. 
The justice, finance, and mines and hydrocarbons portfolios 
will be the most difficult to assign, as all four movements 
seek to control these powerful ministries.  UN Mediator 
 
ANTANANARI 00000767  003 OF 004 
 
 
Tiebile Drame indicated in a briefing on November 9 that 
finance will probably go to the Ratsiraka movement, but 
justice is lQy to be particularly difficult given the 
competing interests over the charter's amnesty provisions and 
the challenges of applying Madagascar's shifting legal bases 
to events over the duration of the crisis so far and the 
upcoming transition period. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Once the government is formed, it is also not a 
given that these nominees will mesh well for the duration of 
the transition.  Ravalomanana's appointment of Fetison, 
instead of a more divisive character such as former 
Ravalomanana PM-designate Manandafy Rakotonirina, is a 
positive sign; Drame is optimistic that they will be able to 
work together.  However, there remain many opportunities for 
all sides to "reinterpret" the documents to serve their ends; 
already, questions have arisen as to the balance of power 
between the president and the co-presidents - Rajoelina 
reportedly sees the co-presidents' role as akin to that of an 
expanded vice president (playing an advisory role, and 
backing up the president), while Ravalomanana likely sees the 
co-presidents as fully-engaged partners in the presidency. 
 
¶10. (SBU) A final challenge is purely logistical: the 
implementation of these agreements, and the installation of 
400 to 500 appointees across the transition government, will 
be a massive, expensive bureaucratic exercise.  There will be 
many moving parts that must all proceed in a coordinated 
manner, under a Prime Minister with very little executive 
experience, all of which will bear heavily on the outcome of 
a multi-stage electoral process in the next 12 months. 
 
INTERNATIONAL REACTION 
---------------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) UN SYG Ban Ki-Moon has already released a statement 
congratulating the four leaders on the power-sharing 
agreement, and urging them to implement the deal quickly. 
France's FM Kouchner read a statement on November 7 calling 
on them to "show the same sense of national interest during 
the transition period which now begins", and to quickly 
establish the transition's new institutions and organize 
upcoming votes.  The European Union has yet to make a 
much-awaited decision on the status of its EUR 630 million of 
foreign assistance to Madagascar, and may not do so for some 
time (although the threat of cutting these suspended funds 
was key to encouraging the four leaders to reach agreement in 
Addis).  The AU will meet today to discuss recent events, and 
will likely issue a statement supporting these developments, 
while waiting for implementation before considering 
Madagascar's full reinstatement to the organization. 
 
¶12. (U) ACTION REQUEST: Post requests the Department to 
express high-level support for this agreement; with all eyes 
now on EU aid and US trade, this is a rare opportunity for us 
to congratulate Madagascar's leaders while maintaining real 
pressure on them to continue moving forward.  Post would 
strongly prefer release of this statement in Washington, but 
is prepared to release is Tuesday here if necessary. 
Following is a suggested text for Department consideration: 
 
BEGIN STATEMENT 
 
The United States is very encouraged by the consensual, 
inclusive agreement reached during the recent summit in Addis 
Ababa, Ethiopia.  We congratulate all four political 
movements for their willingness to negotiate in the true 
spirit of compromise and for making concessions for the 
benefit of the Malagasy people.  The U.S. government also 
applauds the tireless efforts of the International Contact 
Group led by former Mozambican President Joachim Chissano. 
The United States believes that continued compromise and 
inclusivity are vital to the return of a democratic and 
constitutional Republic of Madagascar.  We call on all 
parties to respect the commitments they have made and 
continue to work together in good faith to implement the 
transition government, establish the independent national 
 
ANTANANARI 00000767  004 OF 004 
 
 
electoral commission, and set a realistic date for elections. 
 The United States stands ready to assist Madagascar in 
moving forward toward free and fair elections to be held as 
soon as possible in the coming year. 
 
END STATEMENT 
 
A MOMENT FOR OPTIMISM, IF STILL CAUTIOUS 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶13. (SBU) COMMENT: Post has not yet heard a definitive 
version of why Ravalomanana and Rajoelina at last saw eye to 
eye; it was likely a combination of factors that made this 
latest "last chance" effort bear results.  Drame noted to the 
Ambassador that the almost daily contact with the State 
Department, particularly the telephone interventions of 
Ambassador Carter with Ravalomanana, had been beneficial, as 
had pressure from EU and French representatives on the ground 
in Addis.  Rumors of a possible military takeover no doubt 
weighed on Rajoelina as well.  But no less important was the 
extent to which the Malagasy people have grown tired of this 
conflict, and have lost faith in these squabbling 
politicians' ability to address their real concerns - which 
are overwhelmingly economic and social, and have little to do 
with national politics.  Engagement by donors, including the 
USG, will be vital to the implementation of these agreements, 
as well as for the success of elections themselves.  A 
decision to suspend AGOA at this time would be particularly 
poorly received by the Malagasy, and the rest of the 
international community.  Indeed, in his November 9 briefing, 
Drame openly expressed the hope that this agreement and its 
implementation will be sufficient for the EU to forego 
sanctions and for the USG to maintain AGOA. 
 
¶14. (SBU) The top-heavy nature of this government will 
undoubtedly lead to further disputes and power struggles, but 
this "Addis addendum" explicitly recognizes that the 
transition government has no more important function than to 
organize transparent and credible elections.  This agreement 
allows them to move from crisis to transition, and represents 
the single largest step forward since the crisis began almost 
a year ago. END COMMENT. 
MARQUARDT