VZCZCXRO6239
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHAN #0753/01 3061401
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 021401Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2976
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CDR USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000753 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E MARIA BEYZEROV AND FOR OES/ENV 
DOC FOR RTELCHIN 
TREASURY FOR FBOYE 
PARIS FOR WBAIN 
LONDON FOR PLORD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON MA
SUBJECT: ANTANANARIVO POL/ECON WEEKLY UPDATE (11/02/2009) 
 
REF: A) ANTANANARIVO 710, B) ANTANANARIVO 707, C) ANTANANARIVO 701 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY: This is U.S. Embassy Antananarivo's Weekly Update 
for October 19 to November 2, an unclassified review of major 
political, economic, and commercial events and information from the 
U.S. Mission to Madagascar and the Comoros. 
 
POLITICAL (Paragraphs 2-6) 
- Negotiations in Addis Ababa 
- Election Support 
- Competing Prime Ministers - Old, New, And Interim 
- Prisoners of Concern 
- Human Rights and Climate Change 
 
ECONOMIC AND COMMERCIAL (Paragraphs 7-10) 
- Exxon Investment on Hold 
- Self-Help School Inauguration 
- Workers Lobby for AGOA 
- Economy Heading Into Recession 
 
END SUMMARY 
 
--------- 
POLITICAL 
--------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) NEGOTIATIONS IN ADDIS ABABA: Leaders from Madagascar's four 
main political movements will meet in Addis Ababa from November 3 to 
5 to resume negotiations aimed at ending the current political 
impasse and launching a consensus transition government as soon as 
possible.  Although African Union mediator Ablasse Ouedraogo has 
presented the talks as a largely technical exercise to formally 
divide up the remaining positions under the August 9 Maputo accords, 
Ravalomanana's continued public refusal to accept Rajoelina as 
President of the Transition remains a possible deal-breaker.  See 
Antan 752 for further information. 
 
¶3. (SBU) ELECTION SUPPORT: The UNDP and the European Union have 
begun joint planning for eventual support of elections, starting 
with an evaluation mission to assess needs.  Work has begun drafting 
terms of reference for collaboration on the series of elections 
expected to take place over the course of the transition, in the 
next 12 months.  An initial meeting on October 21 indicates that a 
number of western diplomatic missions intend to provide coordinated 
support on a range of issues, including voter registration, reform 
of the GOM's electoral system, and monitoring of the elections 
themselves.  If the four movements are unable to agree upon a 
consensus transition government this week in Addis Ababa, however, 
the evaluation mission may be postponed.  On the other hand, UN 
mediator Drame told the Ambassador October 30 that UN Under 
Secretary-General Lynn Pascoe already had approved sending the UN 
team immediately in order not to lose further time, even absent a 
transition government. 
 
¶4. (SBU) COMPETING PRIME MINISTERS - OLD, NEW, AND INTERIM: The 
State Council has rejected former Prime Minister Roindefo Monja's 
request to suspend the nomination of Prime Minister Eugene Mangalaza 
(nominated at the October 6 ICG-M meeting), stating that it lacks 
jurisdiction over the case.  The decision remains controversial, 
with opposition suggesting that the Minister of Justice may have 
influenced the ruling with her frequent media appearances insisting 
on the incompetency of the council in this matter.  Monja's lawyers 
have said that they were surprised, but will respect the decision; 
Monja himself has declared that he will stay on until there is a 
signed agreement from the four movements.  In the meantime, current 
Deputy Prime Minister of the Interior, Cecile Manorohanta, is 
serving as acting Prime Minister, while Mangalaza remains abroad 
after departing for talks in Geneva in October that were ultimately 
cancelled.  Staff from the PM's office have moved to the Ministry of 
the Interior to demonstrate their independence from Monja, and at 
present appear to be taking orders from Manorohanta.  (Further 
complicating matters, Ravalomanana's Prime Minister Manandafy 
Rakotonirina still also claims that he is the legitimate holder of 
that office...) 
 
¶5. (SBU) PRISONERS OF CONCERN: Raharinaivo Andrianantoandro, 
detained since September 15 for his alleged connection to attempted 
bombings in Antananarivo, was transferred to HJRA hospital in late 
October for "high blood pressure".  He has already undergone two 
court hearings since his arrest, but has not yet been formally 
charged.  Ralitera Andrianandraina (former head of security at the 
High Constitutional Court, detained since April 27) remains in 
 
ANTANANARI 00000753  002 OF 002 
 
 
prison, but press reports indicate that his case may benefit from 
increased attention from the French government, due to his dual 
French/Malagasy nationality.  There have been no new arrests in 
recent weeks, but the continuing detention of these two individuals 
(and a few others) is in direct contravention of the Maputo 
accords. 
 
¶6. (SBU) HUMAN RIGHTS AND CLIMATE CHANGE: The October session of the 
embassy's monthly Human Rights Working Group focused on the human 
impacts of climate change that can seriously affect an individual's 
right to life.  Discussing the local and global causes of climate 
change, the two speakers asserted that the Malagasy people are 
already experiencing the direct human impacts of climate change, 
namely flooding in the country's rice granary, rapid reduction of 
water resources, and more intense drought in the south.  They 
highlighted reduced carbon dioxide emissions and reforestation as a 
means to address these problems in Madagascar. 
 
----------------------- 
ECONOMIC AND COMMERCIAL 
----------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) EXXON ON HOLD: Exxon Manager David Wilkins, based in 
London, told the Ambassador October 29 that Exxon would like to 
retain its licenses for three offshore blocks in Madagascar, but 
will continue to follow a wait-and-see approach until a more stable, 
internationally recognized government is in place.  Two of the three 
licenses have already expired, and the third is set to expire before 
¶2011.  According to Wilkins, Exxon could not begin drilling before 
2011 at the earliest, so will seek extensions on all the blocks. 
Wilkins expressed concern that Chinese firms may seek to acquire 
their blocks, even though the firms probably lack the technical 
capacity to exploit them.  If Exxon does decide to develop its 
blocks, Wilkins anticipated long delays obtaining necessary 
environmental permits due to red tape and a pending environment 
ministry investigation of whale strandings that occurred last year. 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) SELF-HELP PROGRAM: On October 24, 2009 two embassy 
employees attended the inauguration of a school supported by the 
Ambassador's Special Self-Help program.  La Colombe Bembary, a 
private primary school in the Alaotra Mangoro region of Madagascar, 
was awarded USD 5,000 in October 2007.  The school used the grant to 
repair an older classroom, build and furnish a new classroom, 
install a water tower with a pump, and build latrines and a shower 
stall. 
 
¶9. (SBU) WORKERS CONTINUE THEIR LOBBYING TO AVOID AGOA 
INELIGIBILITY: On October 23, the workers committee for the 
protection of AGOA (AGOAKMM) launched another appeal to the 
politicians and civil society to take the necessary steps to 
maintain Madagascar's AGOA eligibility.  AGOAKMM pointed out that 
tens of thousands of jobs and the lives of 500,000 people would be 
affected by the loss of AGOA benefits. 
 
¶10. (SBU) ECONOMY HEADING INTO RECESSION: The World Bank reported in 
October that the country is continuing its economic downfall owing 
to the political uncertainty.  Because of reduced revenue 
collections, the government increased borrowing from the domestic 
banking system and continued to limit public spending.  The Ariary 
depreciated further due to lower capital inflows and export 
receipts.  Both exports and imports declined, suggesting a slowdown 
in economic activity.  The World Bank concluded that the country is 
heading into recession, which may be compounded if EU aid is 
terminated after November 6 under Article 96 of the Cotonou Accord 
-- and by later AGOA decisions. 
 
 
MARQUARDT