VZCZCXRO9920
PP RUEHAST RUEHCN RUEHDH RUEHGH RUEHHM RUEHLN RUEHMA RUEHPB RUEHPOD
RUEHSL RUEHTM RUEHTRO RUEHVC
DE RUEHIN #1195/01 2750849
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 020849Z OCT 09
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2434
INFO RUEHZN/ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHBK/AMEMBASSY BANGKOK PRIORITY 4719
RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU PRIORITY 0177
RUEHML/AMEMBASSY MANILA PRIORITY 0837
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 0822
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001195 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
TATE ALSO FOR S/ES-O/CMS, EAP/TC, CA/OCS, BANGKOK FOR 
USAID/OFDA REGIONAL ADVISOR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON AEMR CASC PREL PGOV SENV XE TW
SUBJECT: TAIWAN READIES FOR TYPHOONS PARMA AND MELOR 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY: (SBU)  Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau (CWB) on 
October 2 predicted course tracks for typhoons Parma and 
Melor that would bring potentially torrential rains to 
northern and eastern areas of Taiwan October 4-8.  Lighter 
rains are expected in central and southern areas, which are 
still recovering from Typhoon Morakot.  Based on CWB 
forecasts, authorities will set up the interagency Central 
Emergency Operation Center (CEOC) under Vice Premier Eric 
Chu's direction.  Post-Morakot Reconstruction Deputy 
Executive Director General Jenn-Chuan Chern says Taiwan is 
prepared for the possible effects of Parma and Melor, with 
relief supplies pre-positioned and rescue personnel ready to 
move quickly to affected areas.  AIT has issued a warden 
message and updated staff on our internal procedures.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------------ 
HEAVY RAINS LIKELY IN NORTH AND EAST 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU)  CWB predictions show Typhoon Parma heading towards 
Taiwan from the southeast.  By 0800 on October 5, the 
southern tip of Taiwan may be within the potential track area 
of the typhoon (this track area has a probability of 70 
percent; see www.cwb.gov.tw for updated weather reports).  By 
0800 on October 7, the entire island could be within the 70 
percent potential track area of Parma.  However, this 
probable track area for October 7 is quite large, including 
the Philippines and the coast of mainland China.  Typhoon 
Melor is currently located further from Taiwan than Parma, 
and shows a predicted track that would keep it east of the 
island as it veers north towards Japan.  Taiwan through 
October 7 will not be within the 70 percent possible track 
area of Melor, according to CWB predictions.  Whether either 
storm actually makes landfall in Taiwan will depend on 
atmospheric pressure changes over the Pacific.  Regardless of 
whether they make landfall, however, when the typhoons are 
taken in combination with local seasonal monsoon winds, heavy 
rains are expected in northern and eastern regions of Taiwan 
October 4-8.  Rains in the central and southern areas 
affected by Morakot are expected to be lighter. 
 
---------------------------- 
TAIWAN READIES FOR MORE RAIN 
---------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU)  A CWB "sea warning" will require key Taiwan 
agencies and ministers to stand up the interagency Central 
Emergency Operations Center under the leadership of Vice 
Premier Eric Chu, and a "land warning" will require 
additional agencies to participate.  The CEOC was last 
operational during Typhoon Morakot, which killed over 600 
people and caused over USD 300 billion in damage.  We 
understand from local contacts that numerous agencies have 
already reached out to central authorities to ask if the CEOC 
will be called into action.  CWB continues to monitor both 
storms, and will be able to gauge the necessity of sea and 
land warnings over the weekend when the tracks become more 
clearly defined. 
 
¶4. (SBU)  Post-Morakot Reconstruction Deputy Executive 
Director General Jenn-Chuan Chern told us today that Taiwan 
was prepared for the possible effects of Parma and Melor, 
including in southern regions where Morakot reconstruction 
activities were ongoing.  Relief supplies were pre-positioned 
and rescue personnel were ready to move.  Chern noted that 
the power to activate local military units for rescue 
missions was recently devolved from the central leadership in 
Taipei to the county magistrate level, which should improve 
the response time and effectiveness of these units across the 
island.  In addition, these units are now stationed in 
strategic areas around the island and are expected to be able 
to begin rescue and relief operations within 10 minutes of 
receiving an order to act.  Chern closed his generally 
 
TAIPEI 00001195  002 OF 002 
 
 
positive comments on Taiwan's preparedness for Parma and 
Melor by announcing to ESTHoff, "God help us."  Meanwhile, 
Premier Wu Den-yi said yesterday the authorities would 
enforce mandatory evacuations from areas threatened by the 
typhoons if deemed necessary, and added the CWB should 
provide rainfall forecasts in addition to data on wind speed 
in order to make vulnerability assessments easier, as well as 
issue public statements on weather conditions in laymen's 
terms. 
 
¶5. (SBU)  AIT today issued a warden message on Parma and 
Melor, as well as reminding staff of our own warden internal 
procedures and typhoon-related management instructions. 
STANTON