VZCZCXRO1060
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
DE RUEHSM #0654/01 2881515
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 151515Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4799
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000654 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2019 
TAGS: PREL PGOV IR AF CE ZL ZF EUN SW
SUBJECT: SWEDISH PREVIEW OF OCTOBER GAERC 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Marc Koehler for reasons 1.4 (B) & (D). 
 
¶1. (SBU) Deputy EU Correspondent Jonas Wendel told poloff on 
October 16 that the October 26-7 GAERC will be done according 
to the "Bildt Format," which begins with a dinner on the 
26th, and a full day of discussions on the 27th.  The dinner 
topics are: 
 
--Iran non-proliferation issues, and maybe political and 
human rights issues; 
 
--Moldovan liberalization and Albania accession (which would 
have been a Council Opinion had the Germans not interfered); 
 
The daytime B points are: 
 
--On Afghanistan, the Council Secretariat will present its 
report on what more the EU can and should be doing; on 
Pakistan, the EU will discuss future configurations of the 
EU-Pakistan Summit; 
 
--Middle East Process: discussion on the EU can assist the 
U.S. efforts; 
 
--FM Bildt will report on his two trips to Bosnia and 
discussion will continue on how and when to close OHR; 
 
--Conclusions will be adopted criticizing Sri Lanka for its 
internally displaced persons camp; 
 
--Conclusions will also be adopted ending sanctions on 
Uzbekistan. 
 
Expecting that a High Rep for Foreign Affairs will soon be 
named as provided under the Lisbon Treaty, the Swedes are 
feeling "pressured" to "stay out" of certain areas, 
especially Iran.  End Summary. 
 
Lisbon Treaty 
------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The Swedes are preparing to implement the Lisbon 
Treaty on January 1, but they find themselves in limbo, 
needing to take action on foreign policy issues but 
"restrained" from doing so due to the lack of a High 
Representative for Foreign Affairs.  Sweden feels "pressured 
to stay out of areas that will eventually be led by the Hi 
Rep.  Wendel said this dilemma especially affects Iran 
issues. 
 
Iran 
---- 
 
¶3. (C) Monday's dinner will focus on non-proliferation, and 
maybe political and human rights issues.  Two events prior to 
the GAERC will influence the tone of discussions: the P5 1 
technical meeting with Iran scheduled for October 19 and the 
October 25 IAEA inspection of Qom.  At Sweden's request, the 
Council Secretariat is working on an audit of Iran sanctions 
adopted thus far.  Some EU Member States view this as a first 
step in renewing sanctions, but Wendel said FM Bildt has 
stressed that it is not that at all.  Rather, Bildt sees the 
review as a pragmatic evaluation of the effectiveness of 
sanctions.  The Council Secretariat might not be ready to 
present its report by October 26, and instead report 
highlights.  Some Member States, including Britain, have 
already developed their own lists of renewed sanctions, 
Wendel said. 
 
¶4. (C) If Iran agrees to ship 1,200 kilograms of low enriched 
uranium to Russia and France, the Iranian uranium enrichment 
program would be rolled back one year, he stated.  This would 
be a "major breakthrough" and a confidence-building measure. 
He added the caveat that the West has underestimated Iran's 
uranium holdings in the past. 
 
Moldova and Albania 
------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU)  Romania usually wants to discuss Moldova, but its 
government collapsed and it lacks an FM to push the topic. 
Instead, Bildt will discuss what occurred during the EU 
Troika's visit to Chisinau on October 16 to meet with the new 
government and analyze the change from communism to 
liberalism.  Albanian accession was demoted to a dinner topic 
because the Germans want to wait for their newly-elected 
parliament to review Tirana's application.  Some Member 
States, including Italy, are upset with the Germans for 
blocking the Commission's plan to issue an opinion on 
Albanian accession and will make such known during the 
dinner.  The November GAERC will therefore issue the opinion 
that the Commission accepts Albania's application and will 
begin to develop a plan of action for Albania to harmonize 
 
STOCKHOLM 00000654  002 OF 002 
 
 
with the EU acquis. 
 
Afghanistan and Pakistan 
------------------------ 
 
¶6. (SBU) The EU's new Afghanistan strategy will be a B item. 
The strategy has been finalized by the Commission and the 
Council Secretariat and focuses on the EU's contributions to 
counter terrorism, state-building, and police training. 
There will be a "lengthy" discussion of how the EU should 
conduct relations with the eventual new government, and what 
to do if a second round of elections occurs.  On Pakistan, a 
"political signal" will be made with the decision of whether 
or not to continue holding the annual EU-Pakistan Summit at 
the ministerial level, or switch to the "ad hoc" level. 
 
Middle East Peace Process 
------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) The discussion on the peace process will focus on 
how the EU can assist the U.S.  There will be no conclusions. 
 
Western Balkans 
--------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) FM Bildt will brief on his October 9 and 20 trips to 
Bosnia.  Discussion will focus on: how and when the EU should 
dismantle the Office of the High Representative (OHR); the 
role of third countries (including Turkey and the U.S.) after 
OHR closure; and the gradual outphasing  of the EUFOR Althea 
Mission.  Wendel said the Althea discussion will be "tricky" 
as the discussion will be over "the change from an operative 
capability to a supportive capability."  Western Balkans will 
also be a theme at the November "Super GAERC" with EU defense 
ministers.  The Peace Implementation Council "hopefully" will 
decide on November 18/19 to phase out OHR, he said. 
 
Sri Lanka 
--------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) The Swedes tried to remove this item yet again, but 
the Danes and Brits were "furious" so it is on as a B item. 
Conclusions will be adopted criticizing the Sri Lankan 
government for its internally displaced persons camp in the 
north.  Most of the IDPs are civilians and the EU will appeal 
to the Government to address the allegations of human rights 
abuses, perhaps calling for an independent, international 
inquiry. 
 
Great Lakes and Sahel Regions 
----------------------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) The annual conclusions on the Great Lakes Region 
will be given, focusing on Eastern Congo.  Wendel said it 
will simply be "an update on a bad situation."  Conclusions 
on the Sahel Region will also be given, discussing the rising 
threat from terrorism and organized crime. 
 
Uzbekistan Sanctions 
-------------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) In a separate meeting with Central Asian Desk 
Officer Henrik Norberg, poloff learned that the Council 
conclusions on Uzbekistan will announce the expiration of 
sanctions, but also send a clear signal that the human rights 
and democracy situation continue to be problematic.  The 
conclusions will express the EU's concerns over developments 
in Uzbekistan and might include plans for a formal review at 
a future date, or commission another report by the EU Heads 
of Missions in Tashkent.  The Netherlands and UK might force 
a discussion. 
 
¶12. (C) The Swedes know the NGO community will be upset--and 
rightfully so, Norberg said--but the EU lacks the political 
will to keep the sanctions alive.  Too many Member States 
want the sanctions to go away because they are ineffective: 
the visa black list never worked and the arms embargo had no 
concrete effect.  The benchmarks stated in the first 
incarnation of the sanctions remain unmet: Human Rights Watch 
and the UN Special Rep have yet to be allowed to conduct 
independent investigations of the events in Andijon.  Norberg 
noted that the Uzbeks will likely try to use the expiration 
of sanctions to legitimize their stance that they did nothing 
wrong at Andijon. 
 
BARZUN