VZCZCXRO2052
PP RUEHIK
DE RUEHPS #0470/01 3010748
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 280748Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY PRISTINA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9373
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 1234
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1758
RHFMIUU/AFSOUTH NAPLES IT
RHMFISS/CDR TF FALCON
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEPGEA/CDR650THMIGP SHAPE BE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUZEJAA/USNIC PRISTINA SR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PRISTINA 000470 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE, EUR/PGI, INL, DRL, PRM, USAID 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PINR KV
SUBJECT: KOSOVO: LOCAL ELECTIONS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ETHNIC SERB 
INTEGRATION 
 
REF: (A) PRISTINA 456; (B) PRISTINA 463 
 
PRISTINA 00000470  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Kosovo Serbs will vote in municipal elections on 
November 15 for the first time in four of six new decentralized 
municipalities formed under the Ahtisaari Plan.  Encouraging voter 
participation among Serbs in the new municipalities is critical to 
decentralization's success, and USAID is working with Municipal 
Preparation Teams (MPTs) and the GOK to launch and publicize a 
number of development projects that will heighten the elections' 
salience in the new municipalities.  While Belgrade has been less 
vocal in its opposition to Kosovo Serb electoral participation than 
in the last municipal elections in 2007, we are seeing definite 
signs that the Government of Serbia is increasing its opposition at 
the local level.  The registration of over 20 Kosovo Serb political 
entities for these elections is an encouraging sign, however. 
Ethnic Serb parties dominate among registrants in 
Gracanica/Gracanice, Klokot/Kllokot, and Ranilug/Ranillug 
municipalities, adding to the likelihood of Kosovo Serbs being 
elected in those municipalities.  Ethnic Albanian parties are, 
however, contesting elections in force in majority-Serb Novo 
Brdo/Novoberde, Strpce, and the existing northern municipalities of 
Leposavic, Zubin Potok, and Zvecan.  END SUMMARY 
 
KOSOVO SERBS TO VOTE IN DECENTRALIZED MUNICIPALITIES 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Kosovo's November 15 municipal elections  provide the 
country's Serb population with an opportunity to select the mayors 
and municipal assemblies that will govern their communities for the 
next four years.  If they choose to participate, Kosovo Serbs will 
cast ballots in four existing Serb-majority municipalities -- 
Strpce/Shterpce in southern Kosovo, and Zubin Potok, Zvecan and 
Leposavic in northern Kosovo -- and four new Serb-majority 
municipalities of Gracanica/Gracanice, Klokot/Kllokot, 
Ranilug/Ranillug and an expanded Novo Brdo/Novoberde.  The four were 
envisioned as part of the Ahtisaari-mandated decentralization 
process, which aims to empower ethnic minority communities and 
provide all municipalities with greater authority over the provision 
of the services that most impact the day-to-day lives of their 
residents.  Contests in the remaining two Ahtisaari-mandated 
municipalities, Partesh and Mitrovica North, will take place in 
spring 2010. 
 
TWENTY SERB PARTIES PARTICIPATING 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Over 20 ethnic Serb political entities registered to 
participate in the November 15 elections.  These include more 
established parties such as the Independent Liberal Party (SLS), the 
Serbian People's Party (SNS), and the to-date troublesome Serbian 
Democratic Party of Kosovo and Metohija (SDSKiM), as well as a 
number of smaller groups and local citizens' initiatives.  In 2007, 
most of Kosovo's ethnic Serbs heeded calls from Belgrade to boycott 
Kosovo's central and municipal elections because they feared 
Belgrade's public threats to withdraw Serbian Government benefits 
and pensions from those who cast ballots.  This year there are 
indications that Kosovo Serbs living south of the Ibar River are 
somewhat less inclined to take direction from Belgrade and more 
inclined to participate in the upcoming contest.  This is, in part, 
due to Serbian President Tadic's decision not to issue an 
unequivocal call for a boycott, but to limit his public opposition 
to his statement that "conditions are not present" for Serb 
participation, and thus far, there have been no intimations from 
Belgrade that Serbs will lose their GOS-provided benefits for 
voting.  Serbian parallel authorities in Kosovo have made statements 
discouraging voter participation that go beyond Belgrade's more 
restrained public line, but they have not threatened Serb voters 
with a loss of benefits. 
 
BELGRADE HEDGES 
--------------- 
 
PRISTINA 00000470  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) Still, the Government of Serbia's attitude toward the 
November elections is not benign: for example, we learned on October 
21 that Serbia's Ministry of Education is ordering Kosovo Serb 
teachers in parallel Serbian-language schools to resign from 
temporary employment on MPTs in Kosovo's new municipalities or face 
dismissal (Ref B).  This follows a decision by parallel authorities 
and/or the Serbian Ministry of Education forbidding Serb school 
directors from permitting the CEC to locate polling stations in Serb 
schools.  Serbian Assistant Minister for Kosovo Dragan Petkovic 
reportedly told a village gathering in Partesh on October 11 that 
people on Serbia's payroll should not participate in elections. 
These statements and actions have a chilling effect on Kosovo Serb 
participation in the elections. (Note: Petkovic told us on October 
26 that the use of schools was not possible because they were "too 
closely related to the Serbian state" but that the GOS might 
consider allowing voting in Serbian-run community and cultural 
centers.  He said he would not tell anyone not to vote, but restrict 
himself to the formula "conditions are not present for Serb 
participation."  End Note) 
 
ENCOURAGING SERB VOTER TURNOUT 
------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) Despite efforts by Belgrade and parallel structure 
officials to delegitimize the elections,  Kosovo Serb political 
parties appear to be swaying voters with arguments that electoral 
participation is necessary for Serbs to survive and by divorcing 
Kosovo's status from the discussion.  SLS managed to attract close 
to 600 people at a recent rally in Gracanica, for example.  In order 
to build on this apparent enthusiasm and counter the negative sotto 
voce messages coming from Belgrade and parallel structures, we are 
supporting get-out-the-vote campaigns organized by the CEC and local 
Kosovo Serb NGOs south of the Ibar.  In the coming weeks, we will 
also dedicate a number of U.S.-funded projects tied to the MPTs in 
each of the new municipalities, such as roads, parks and 
playgrounds, water systems, trash bins and solid waste collection, 
that underscore the benefits of decentralization.  We are also 
working with MPTs to help them establish their basic frameworks, 
such as municipal statutes and organizational charts.  The aim is to 
make the decentralization process more tangible to local Serbs, 
underscore its benefits, and highlight the importance of voting on 
November 15. 
 
PARTY POLITICS IN RANILUG, GRACANICA, AND KLOKOT 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶6. (SBU) In Serb-dominated Ranilug/Ranillug only ethnic-Serb 
political entities are running in November.  In southern Kosovo's 
Serb "capital" Gracanica/Gracanice, only one ethnic Albanian party, 
the Democratic League of Dardania (LDD), registered mayoral and 
assembly candidates.  This bolsters the likelihood that these now 
high-profile areas will have democratically-elected ethnic Serb 
leadership, which is critical to securing popular confidence in 
local representation as well as building decentralization's 
credibility within Kosovo's Serb community.  Turnout will be crucial 
to ensuring the Serb leadership in these two municipalities enjoys 
the legitimacy required to govern effectively.  In Klokot/Kllokot, 
where Serbs comprise about 75 percent of the population, only the 
Kosovo Serb SLS and the Kosovo Albanian Democratic League of Kosovo 
(LDK) registered, and only the SLS submitted a candidate for mayor. 
This all but ensures ethnic-Serb leadership in this municipality, as 
well.  We have heard reports that the SLS and LDK have made a 
gentleman's agreement to involve each other in power sharing. 
 
NOVO BRDO AND STRPCE: SERBS MUST VOTE 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Both ethnic Albanian and ethnic Serb political entities are 
running for the mayoral offices and assembly seats in the expanded 
Novo Brdo/Novoberde and the existing Strpce municipalities.  In each 
case, the outcome will depend on voter turnout among Serbs.  In 2007 
Prime Minister Thaci's Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) won a 
 
PRISTINA 00000470  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
majority in the Strpce Assembly due to low ethnic Serb turnout.  PDK 
also won a majority of the Assembly seats in Novo Brdo for the same 
reason, and LDK won the mayor's race there.  In 2007 UNMIK's SRSG 
took remedial action to ensure that Serbs had "appropriate 
representation" in elected municipal structures by voiding the 
results and reappointing previously-elected Serb representatives to 
the mayor's office and municipal assembly in Strpce and reappointing 
the previous municipal assembly in Novo Brdo/Novoberde.  If Serbs 
refuse to vote in November in these municipalities, Albanian parties 
will take the mayors' offices and a majority of the seats in the 
municipal assemblies.  There is no mechanism for changing this 
outcome, and Prime Minister Thaci and other GOK leaders have stated 
on numerous occasions that they want to see electoral outcomes 
respected in November. 
 
ENSURING VOTING OPPORTUNITY IN THE NORTH 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) We expect that only a handful of Kosovo Serbs will 
participate in November elections in the northern ethnic-Serb 
dominated municipalities of Kosovo, where the populations are 
politically and geographically closer to Belgrade.  Despite this, we 
are working with the CEC to ensure that those willing to vote -- 
both ethnic Serbs and the small ethnic Albanian minority -- will 
have the opportunity to cast ballots.  We have funded a CEC plan to 
provide mobile polling stations for Serb voters in the northern 
municipalities (Note: Serbs in the north voted in mobile polling 
stations in 2007 as well.  The CEC will staff static polling 
stations for Albanians in the northern enclave Albanian villages. 
End Note) With few exceptions, ethnic Albanian parties dominate 
party registrations in Leposavic, Zubin Potok, and Zvecan.  SDSKiM 
is registered for both the mayoral and assembly races in Zvecan and 
Zubin Potok.  As a reference point, zero votes were cast for Serb 
parties in Zubin Potok and Zvecan in 2007, and four Serb parties 
received one vote each in Leposavic in 2007.  Absent a call from 
Belgrade for Serbs to participate in the November elections, we 
anticipate similar low rates of turnout there this year. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Supporting Kosovo's institutions in their efforts to 
encourage ethnic Serb voter participation remains an uphill battle, 
but we are marshalling our resources -- and encouraging the GOK to 
do the same with its own -- to underscore to Kosovo Serbs that these 
elections count.  We are planning frequent events to highlight the 
benefits of decentralization to Kosovo Serbs, and we are showing 
Kosovo Serbs that the USG supports Kosovo's minority communities. 
Our European friends are also engaged, but they could be much more 
active in the process.  Ethnic Albanian parties will most likely win 
in the majority-Serb municipalities in the north due to low voter 
turnout by Kosovo Serbs there.  Nonetheless, increased Serb voter 
turnout overall and tangible progress on decentralization could 
produce outcomes south of the Ibar that advance our long-term goal 
of integrating Kosovo's Serbs into a stable, democratic Kosovo. 
Despite our best efforts, however, statements and actions by 
Belgrade and the parallel structures between now and election day 
have the potential to undermine our efforts. 
 
DELL