VZCZCXRO8129
PP RUEHIK
DE RUEHPS #0465/01 2951028
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 221028Z OCT 09 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY PRISTINA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9365
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 1231
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1755
RHFMIUU/AFSOUTH NAPLES IT
RHMFISS/CDR TF FALCON
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEPGEA/CDR650THMIGP SHAPE BE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUZEJAA/USNIC PRISTINA SR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PRISTINA 000465 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE, EUR/PGI, INL, DRL, PRM, USAID 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON ENRG PGOV KV SR
SUBJECT: KOSOVO: WEATHER AND TECHNICAL PROBLEMS CAUSE POWER OUTAGES 
IN NORTHERN KOSOVO 
 
PRISTINA 00000465  001.4 OF 003 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On October 18, increased demand for electricity 
due to unseasonably cold weather and technical problems threatened 
to cause catastrophic failure to the Valac electrical sub-station 
and distribution lines in northern Kosovo.  This prompted the Kosovo 
Electricity Company (KEK) to cut power on the one operable 110KV 
line to the north. (Note: Two other lines are down for scheduled 
maintenance. End Note) Power remains off because employees of the 
Serbian electric utility EPS, which operates KEK's Valac sub-station 
in northern Kosovo into which the three 100KV lines feed, refused a 
KEK request manage the situation responsibly.  Serbia has stepped in 
on "humanitarian grounds" and is now supplying some electricity 
through a power line running from Novi Pazar.  However, the Serbian 
power supply is inconsistent and not able to meet demand.  While KEK 
works to restore the main power supply lines to the north, it has 
also reiterated to Belgrade officials its interest in establishing a 
sub-contractor relationship with a subsidiary of the EPS as part of 
its effort to regularize payment for the electricity KEK supplies to 
the north.  Though the current shut down is unconnected with these 
efforts, many Serbs north of the Ibar assume otherwise.  Reaction 
has, thus far, been peaceful, and developments have begun to expose 
Serbia's inability to provide 24/7 power to the north despite what 
many northern Kosovo Serbs assumed and some parallel officials had 
claimed was possible.  Interestingly, we understand that some 
officials in Belgrade have told parallel structures that they expect 
northern Kosovo Serbs to pay for the limited power they are 
receiving via Novi Pazar.  We will query KEK about when it can 
safely resume transmission to the north along the one operable 110KV 
line.  We understand, but will confirm, that the scheduled 
maintenance on the two down lines will be completed on or about 
October 25. END SUMMARY 
 
THE BEST LAID PLANS 
------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Over the last eight months the Kosovo Electricity Company 
(KEK) has been implementing a three-phased plan to regularize 
non-paying electricity customers from Serb-majority areas throughout 
Kosovo.  KEK completed phase one, smaller Serb communities south of 
the Ibar River, and phase two, Grancanica and Strpce, in August 
¶2009.  Since then KEK has been preparing to implement the third and 
final phase of the plan: regularizing customers from Kosovo's three 
northern municipalities, including north Mitrovica.  KEK had been 
coordinating closely with KFOR, UNMIK, ICO, OSCE and others, but had 
not yet taken a decision to cutoff power to the northern Kosovo. 
KEK had also made several approaches to the Serbian Ministry of 
Energy to discuss using a Serbia-based, but Kosovo-registered energy 
services company (ESCO) to collect payment for electricity in the 
north, but following U.S. advice to proceed cautiously had been told 
as recently as October 6 that this was not politically possible. 
 
 
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER CAUSES POWER SPIKE 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) The early arrival of unusually cold weather over the 
October 17-18 weekend caused a spike in demand in northern Kosovo 
just as two out of three 110KV lines carrying power to the north 
were undergoing scheduled maintenance.  On the morning of Sunday, 
October 18, demand in northern Kosovo soared over 60 MW, at one 
point reaching a peak of 65 MW, beyond what the line was capable of 
safely providing.  (Note: During the entire winter season of 
2008-09, the maximum peak load in the north on a single day was 
approximately 60 MW. End note)  Technical weaknesses already present 
in the distribution system combined with the extreme demand on the 
single remaining operating line risked physical line failure and/or 
transformer burn-out, which would keep the power off for several 
months.  According to KEK, if allowed to continue, the level of 
demand would have caused transformers and capacitors to burn out and 
the power lines to melt. 
 
AVOIDING CATASTROPHIC FAILURE 
 
PRISTINA 00000465  002.4 OF 003 
 
 
----------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) In order to prevent catastrophic failure, KEK Managing 
Director (MD) Arben Gjukaj issued urgent instructions to implement 
load shedding, also known as rolling blackouts, at 1250 on October 
18 to the operators of the key northern sub-station at Valac.  When 
the Valac sub-station operators, who are EPS employees paid by KEK, 
failed to implement load shedding, Gjukaj instructed dispatchers at 
1330 to disconnect the line in order to prevent a catastrophic 
system failure that, KEK argued, would have disrupted distribution 
throughout the country.  Power was turned off north of the Ibar 
River for several hours.  It was restored later in the day by the 
managing director of KOSTT, the Kosovo transmission system operator, 
despite the significant risk of system failure. 
 
¶5. (SBU) On Monday, October 19, Gjukaj met with five representatives 
of the Serbian power generation and transmission companies EPS and 
EMS -- N. Aleksic, R. Kreckovic, B. Novakovic, B. Kovacevic, and T. 
Radosavlevic -- in north Mitrovica seeking an explanation of their 
failure to execute load shedding instructions; no explanation was 
provided.  On Monday afternoon demand in northern Kosovo again 
spiked to more than 60 MW, which forced Gjukaj to repeat his 
instruction to disconnect the line.  As of this writing, the single 
operable 110KV line remains disconnected and northern Kosovo is not 
being supplied with power by KEK. 
 
SERBIA STEPS IN 
--------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) On Tuesday, October 20, some areas north of the Ibar were 
being supplied with electricity by EPS through a 110KV line from 
Novi Pazar, Serbia, and from the Ujmani hydropower plant located at 
the Gazivoda Lake in Zubin Potok Municipality.  Sources in the 
international community (IC) based in Mitrovica noted to us that 
Belgrade has highlighted that the 20MW currently provided by EPS is 
humanitarian supply, geared to meet the most basic needs of 
hospitals and schools.  The Novi Pazar line is normally used for 
balancing the distribution systems and is not suited to supply 
sustained demand.  The combination of this line and the Ujmani HPP 
is a temporary measure at best, and can only meet about 30-40% of 
the electricity normally consumed in the north. 
 
EPS DISCONNECTS NON-SERBS 
------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) On October 20, in an effort to reduce the strain on the 
Novi Pazar line, EPS employees began selectively disconnecting 
Albanian neighborhoods north of the Ibar.  The Albanian-majority 
village of Suvi Do/Suhadoll was cut off from restored electricity 
supply on October 20, when EPS employees came to the village and 
removed fuses from the neighborhood sub-station, stating they needed 
to reduce power consumption.  Later the same day, about 20 Kosovo 
Albanian Suvi Do residents blocked the main road with rocks to 
protest their disconnection from the Novi Pazar supply.  The protest 
ended following a discussion with Kosovo Police.  Though power has 
been restored to Suvi Do, three majority ethnic-Albanian villages in 
Zvecan are also without electricity after EPS disconnected the area 
power line from the Trepca North sub-station. 
 
ROLLING BLACKOUTS, SECURITY SITUATION CALM 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶8. (SBU) As of noon on October 21 the Novi Pazar line is carrying 
about 25MW of electricity, roughly its maximum capability.  The 
Ujmani HPP was shut down around 2300 on October 20 and remains off 
line.  Ujmani operators are aware that continuous operation under 
current conditions can risk severe damage to the equipment, and they 
are communicating with KEK to ensure KEK's assistance getting the 
plant back on line if and when KEK needs the plant to operate. 
Several areas in the north are now heavily load shed by EPS, and it 
is apparent that most of the energy being delivered from Serbia via 
Novi Pazar is going to Mitrovica, which itself had power cut from 
around 0100 to 0600 on October 21.  A KFOR source visiting Novo 
 
PRISTINA 00000465  003.4 OF 003 
 
 
Selo, where KFOR's Multi-National Task Force-North (MNTF-N) is 
based, told us that in spite of rolling blackouts the situation in 
MNTF-N's area of responsibility was stable and no significant 
security incidents had been reported. 
 
MESSAGE FROM SERBIA TO THE NORTH: EVERYBODY PAYS 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Since the citizens of Strpce agreed to payments for 
electricity in August, northern Kosovo has been anticipating that 
they too will be called on to pay for this basic service, a message 
that has been conveyed by the Serbian Ministry for Kosovo.  Goran 
Bogdanovic, Belgrade's Minister for Kosovo and Metohija, stated 
publically during the regularization of payments in the south 
earlier in the year that the north too must pay for electricity.  As 
recently as this week, Bogdanovic touted his track record of 
pragmatic intervention on this issue in the Belgrade daily 
"Politika."  On October 21, Serbian-language media outlets available 
in Kosovo, like the internet edition of RTV B92, reported comments 
from parallel structure leaders in the north that all customers need 
to pay for electricity. 
 
¶10. (SBU) On October 22, both local media reported that Serbian 
Minister for Kosovo Bogdanovic met with representatives of EPS and 
"Elektrokosmet", a Serbian public utility, on October 21 to discuss 
the current lack of electricity to northern Kosovo.  According to 
media reports, Bogdanovic and company agreed that northern Kosovo 
residents should pay their electricity bills directly to EPS 
starting from November 1, 2009, and that Elektrokosmet would begin 
registering consumers in the north and installing electricity 
meters.  The meeting was also attended by the parallel mayors of the 
northern municipalities.  According to laws and regulations adopted 
by UNMIK and still in force, KEK is the sole licensed distribution 
system operator and public supplier of electricity within Kosovo. 
No other entity is licensed to perform these activities.  In other 
words, Bogandovic's proposal is illegal.  The only legal way a 
Serbian-based entity could collect electricity bills in Kosovo would 
be as KEK's registered agent. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) As the weather improves this week and into the weekend and 
demand presumably lessens, we will query KEK about when it can 
safely resume transmission to the north along the one operable 100KV 
line.  We will also confirm KEK plans to complete maintenance on the 
two down lines on or about October 25.  That said, the current 
situation, provides some valuable insights for the bill collection 
effort in the north, which we should keep in mind when we decide to 
tackle the issue.  To begin with, many Serbs have assumed, 
incorrectly, that the shut off is the opening salvo in the bill 
collection effort, yet the political reaction from Serbs has been 
relatively muted.  Parallel structures and some Belgrade officials 
have, not surprisingly, talked about a "humanitarian crisis", but 
without the ardor some would have predicted, and there has been no 
violence.  When KEK moves on bill collection we should anticipate 
greater efforts to spin the story as a humanitarian issues rather 
than a commercial question.  Second, the shut off has tangibly 
exposed the inability of Serbia and the north's parallel structures 
to provide 24/7 power to the north.  Third, if accurate, it is 
telling Belgrade and EPS have discussed with parallel structures the 
need for Serbs to pay for even the limited power they are now 
receiving from the Novi Pazar line.  This is a useful precedent for 
underlining the commercial nature of the problem.  Finally, the 
episode underscores the importance of KEK control of the Valac 
sub-station, currently controlled by EPS employees, whose refusal to 
load shed contributed directly to the power cut off. 
 
DELL