VZCZCXRO4193
OO RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHPF #0743/01 2801033
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 071033Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY PHNOM PENH
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1244
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU 0088

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PHNOM PENH 000743 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS and CA/OCS 
BANGKOK FOR USAID/OFDA REGIONAL ADVISOR A. DWYER 
USAID/W FOR DCHA/OFDA R. THAYER, ANE/AA, DCHA/FFP 
KATHMANDU FOR W. BERGER AND S. MCINTYRE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: AEMR ASEC CASC MARR PREL PINR AMGT EAID CB
SUBJECT: MGEAP1: CAMBODIA COPING WITH KETSANA, SO FAR 
 
REF: (A) PHNOM PENH 000734  (B) STATE 103261 
 
¶1. (U) Summary:  Ketsana's high winds and heavy rains continue to 
impact people in eight of Cambodia's 24 provinces.  NGOs, the 
Cambodia Red Cross (CRC) and provincial governments appear to be 
meeting immediate needs of the displaced without requesting 
additional donor assistance.  The Royal Government of Cambodia (RGC) 
has not declared a disaster or appealed for external help.  Nearly 
100,000 hectares (ha) of rice appear to have been destroyed or 
damaged within a month of the normal November harvest, prompting 
concern for food security and agricultural livelihoods over the near 
future.  Donors will need to accurately assess the floods' effect on 
paddies if rehabilitation is necessary, and to ensure that the 
poorest have sufficient food for the coming dry season.  End 
Summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
INCONSISTENT DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS PREDOMINATE . . . 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Typhoon Ketsana's impact on Cambodia remains evident by the 
number of temporarily displaced families, hundreds of kilometers of 
destroyed roads, nearly 100,000 ha of submerged crops, hundreds of 
damaged houses, fallen bridges, and many flooded schools and 
pagodas.  Unfortunately, reliable, verified data has been difficult 
to come by and is sometimes contradictory.  Headlines in the English 
dailies on Monday, set off by an Oxfam International press release 
on October 3, suggested the nation was on the verge of a crisis. 
The government's, UN agencies, NGO and donors' views have been more 
judicious in their assessments.  The Ministry of Agriculture, 
Forestry and Fisheries reported separately that Ketsana had 
"affected" 79,000 ha and destroyed 5,000 ha of paddy across the 
eight provinces hit by the storm, nearly two thirds of which are in 
Siem Reap and Kampong Thom provinces; these numbers represent about 
3.5 percent of the total rice under cultivation last year. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The National Committee for Disaster Management's (NCDM) 
official report, which is likely to be the most comprehensive 
overview available, will be made public on October 8 -- Embassy 
staff will attend the meeting.  NCDM data is compiled from 
Provincial Committees for Disaster Management (PCDM, one in each 
province), which in turn receive reports from the CRC and NGOs 
working in the various areas -- principally Care, Caritas, Muslim 
Aid, Oxfam, World Vision, Plan International, Action Aid and Church 
World Service.  Unofficially, the NCDM data blames the storm for 20 
deaths and 65 injuries.  In addition, NCDM reports that Ketsana 
destroyed nearly 1,000 houses and damaged another 2,400, flooded 110 
schools, and damaged nearly 2,000 km of roads.  NCDM also reported 
nearly 8,700 displaced families, the vast majority of them Kampong 
Thom and Kampong Cham provinces.  Finally, the unofficial NCDM data 
indicated over 60,000 ha of paddy rice damaged, and another 34,500 
ha flooded. 
 
¶4. (U) Bilateral donors rely on the expert assessments of the World 
Food Programme (WFP) and UNICEF -- which analyze NGO and provincial 
reports, compare reports with known populations and normal 
conditions, and make representative field visits -- to ground-truth 
reporting and eliminate double counting as much as possible.  UNICEF 
data indicates that 25,600 families in the 5 provinces of Stueng 
Trang, Siem Reap, Kampong Thom, Rattnakiri and Kampong Cham have 
been affected by Ketsana, conservatively over 100,000 people. 
However, UNICEF has reported a smaller number of displaced families 
compared to the NCDM and Oxfam data. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Both WFP and UNICEF believe the NCDM data for the displaced 
probably include normal rainy season movements of local rice-farming 
populations.  It is possible that a portion of the displaced in the 
NCDM and Oxfam reporting include those who had already temporarily 
relocated to higher ground during seasonal flooding, moving into 
houses of family members more distant from their seasonally 
inundated village paddies.  More clearly, WFP opines that overall, 
small pockets of people have had to move, but not huge groups from 
broad geographic areas. 
 
------------------------------------- 
. . . BUT NEEDS HAVE LARGELY BEEN MET 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) A great number of people has clearly been affected by 
Ketsana's heavy rains and winds.  Nonetheless, both UNICEF and WFP 
believe provincial authorities have sufficient money and rice, 
through themselves and the NGOs operating in those areas, to deal 
with the worst affected.  They also believe that the provincial 
governments have been responsive and coordinated well with the CRC 
and NGOs.  WFP reported that it contacted every NGO involved with 
emergency assistance throughout the eight affected provinces, 
including the CRC, and all responded that they have been able to 
 
PHNOM PENH 00000743  002 OF 002 
 
 
meet all immediate needs for temporary housing, food, mosquito 
netting, and water; none asked for additional assistance from the 
WFP or the donor community. (Several embassies gave small 
contributions to the CRC, and the CRC raised $441,000 in a fund 
raising concert held by Bayon TV on October 5.) 
 
¶7. (U) Barring additional heavy rains or storms, waters are receding 
in most northern provinces, though both Mondulkiri and Rattnakiri 
provinces expect strong seasonal winds and rain to continue. 
However, Mekong River Commission measurements show that river levels 
are dropping in Stueng Trang and Kratie provinces, and stable at 
Kampong Cham town.  Flood waters in Siem Reap have receded, but 
swaths of Kampong Thom farmland are still under water.  As expected, 
rivers south of Kampong Cham are rising, but are not expected to 
surpass alarm levels. 
 
---------------------- 
LONGER TERM NEXT STEPS 
---------------------- 
 
¶8. (U) We expect that a number of communities will be affected in 
the longer term due to the loss of family rice paddies.  The RGC, 
provincial authorities and donors will need to more fully assess 
Ketsana's effect on the very broad area of affected rice and 
farmland for possible future rehabilitation and reconstruction.  It 
is possible that some of the hectareage reported as damaged, or 
"affected," may indeed be harvested.  Embassy Phnom Penh continues 
to closely monitor the situation and will provide updates as events 
progress. 
 
ALLEGRA