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"C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 000795 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PINR CA
SUBJECT: BLUE DAYS FOR LIBERAL LEADER MICHAEL IGNATIEFF 
 
REF: A. 08 OTTAWA 1543 
     ¶B. OTTAWA 341 
     ¶C. OTTAWA 766 
     ¶D. OTTAWA 735 
     ¶E. OTTAWA 569 
 
Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (C)  Summary.  Liberal Party poll numbers continue to 
decline, while the Conservatives appear in their strongest 
position in at least a year.  Fundraising has also slowed 
down noticeably.  Leader Michael Ignatieff is clearly on the 
defensive, but has vowed to do a better job in shaping the 
political landscape and his own image.  Some insiders are 
skeptical that he can do so, at least before a next election, 
but see no real alternative right now for the Liberal Party. 
End Summary. 
 
BRIEF STARDOM 
------------- 
 
¶2.  (C)  Michael Ignatieff was widely seen as the savior of 
the Liberal Party of Canada, the ""Official Opposition,"" when 
he took over as interim leader from the discredited 
then-leader Stephane Dion in dramatic fashion in December 
2008 (ref a), and was subsequently voted official leader in 
early May 2009 (ref b).  Urban, articulate, bilingual, and 
with an impressive rolodex of contacts around the world -- 
including in the new Obama Administration -- Ignatieff 
represented the Liberals' newest and best hope that they 
could reverse their several years-long slide and emerge in 
the next election -- probably, they thought, in summer or 
fall 2009 -- at least with enough seats to form a minority 
government and finally drive the Conservative Party of Canada 
out of office.  The worldwide recession, Canada's mounting 
recession, and Prime Minister Stephen Harper's seeming 
inability to connect viscerally with the voters -- especially 
among women and in vote-rich Ontario and Quebec -- fueled the 
Liberals' dream of once again serving as ""Canada's natural 
governing party.""  (This was, of course, before Harper's now 
famous -- at least in Canada -- surprise performance of the 
Beatles' ""I Get By With a Little Help From My Friends"" at the 
National Arts Centre, along with Yo-Yo Ma, on October 3.) 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  Instead, the Liberals as a party and Ignatieff as 
a leader are again sliding in the polls, while the 
Conservatives apparently are going from strength to strength. 
 In an EKOS poll released on October 14, support for the 
Liberals nationwide (""if an election were held today"") among 
decided voters had dropped to 25.5 pct, down from over 29 pct 
only a few weeks ago (ref c).  The Conservatives in the same 
poll were up to 40.7 pct, which arguably could bring them a 
majority government in a new election any time soon, although 
the concentration of their support in the western provinces 
might mean that they would only win another, albeit perhaps 
stronger, minority government.  In the poll, the 
Conservatives and the Liberals were neck-and-neck in Quebec 
at about 22 pct of support each, but -- ominously -- the 
Conservatives were far ahead  of the Liberals in Ontario, at 
44.1 pct to 31 pct.  Surprisingly, support for the 
Conservatives among women was 36.7 pct versus only 26 pct for 
the Liberals.  Almost half of those in the EKOS poll felt 
that Canada was in only a ""mild recession,"" with two-thirds 
expressing the hope that their own personal financial 
situation in a year's time will be ""about the same"" or 
""better.""   Poll after poll has shown that Canadians now put 
far more trust -- usually between 14 and 20 pct more -- in PM 
Harper as a leader than they do in Ignatieff, contrary to 
Canadian conventional wisdom that the ruling party always 
takes a hit in bad economic times. 
 
AND THE BAD TIMES ROLL ON... 
---------------------------- 
 
¶4.   Many Liberal Party insiders have privately begun to 
express a feeling of ""deja vu all over again"" -- stuck with 
another leader who ""just doesn't listen,"" the same flaw most 
attributed to Dion.  Complaints have surfaced -- most 
publicly, by Liberal MP Denis Coderre (ref c) as he resigned 
as the Liberal Lieutenant for Quebec and as Defence Critic 
(shadow Defence Minister)  -- about Ignatieff's reliance on a 
handful of Toronto-based advisors, to the exclusion of all 
other viewpoints, a charge that Ignatieff has rebuffed 
vigorously.  Liberal National Director Rocco Rossi (who, 
incidentally or not, is from Toronto) admitted privately to 
PolMinCouns that Ignatieff's closest advisers, like Principal 
Secretary Ian Davey, do come from Toronto, but indicated that 
Ignatieff didn't really listen much to them, either.  ""He 
knows his own mind, and the only person whose opinion he 
really cares about is his wife Zsuzsanna,"" he commented. 
Others have also pointed to the close-knit nature of their 
relationship, while insisting that the outgoing Zsuzsanna 
could be his ""secret weapon"" if ever let loose on the 
 
OTTAWA 00000795  002 OF 003 
 
 
campaign trail or among the Liberal Party loyalists -- which 
would, however, go against the Canadian political norm, 
according to most pundits.  (People say exactly the same 
thing about Laureen Harper, the Prime Minister's vivacious 
spouse.) 
 
¶5.  (C)  Liberal Party officials now confess that Ignatieff's 
long summer holiday mostly out of public sight (ref c) was, 
in retrospect, a tactical error, only compounding the minor 
bounce that the sitting government usually gets when 
Parliament is on recess.  Another mistake, in hindsight, was 
canceling a highly touted trip by Ignatieff to China -- which 
PM Harper has yet to visit -- in early September after 
Ignatieff stunned a party gathering in Sudbury, Ontario with 
the sudden news that the Liberals had finally and truly lost 
""confidence"" and ""trust"" in the Conservatives and would 
henceforth oppose the government.  In what is now seen as yet 
again a tactical mis-step, Ignatieff in a CBC Radio interview 
that aired on October 10 backtracked by explaining that the 
Liberals would only vote against the Conservatives on formal 
confidence votes, while making case-by-case decisions on all 
other legislative votes.  The Liberals are apparently still 
wrestling with how to vote on pending legislation to extend 
Employment Insurance benefits, now in a Commons' committee, 
but have indicated that they may try to delay passage once it 
reaches the Liberal-dominated Senate -- mostly, to avoid 
letting the Conservatives and their new-found ally on this 
issue, the New Democratic Party, get the credit.  They admit 
that there is some risk to this strategy if voters perceive 
the Liberals as standing in the way of better unemployment 
coverage, however. 
 
¶6.  (C)  To underscore worrying trends, Liberal fundraising 
has plateaued, fundraiser-in-chief Rossi admitted.  In the 
first six months of 2009, the Liberals raised about as much 
as they had in all of 2008 -- about C$5 million -- and almost 
as much as the Conservatives had (C$7 million).  Since then, 
however, they have picked up almost no new contributions or 
pledges, although they hold out hopes for some major 
fundraising events in the fourth quarter of 2009.  New 
memberships were up by about 100,000 in 2009, according to an 
official of the Office of the Official Opposition, but were 
similarly concentrated in the first half of the year. 
Liberal officials have estimated that approximately one 
million Liberal voters simply stayed home in the October 2008 
election, but are quick to note that many of them were not 
actually party members. 
 
NO HAPPY TALK 
------------- 
 
¶7.  (C)  Many Liberals have been disappointed that 
Ignatieff's communication skills -- honed as a TV journalist 
in London and as a Harvard University professor -- have 
failed to ignite as a politician.  According to National 
Director Rossi, Ignatieff himself laments his own lack of 
humor, claiming ""I'm a Presbyterian with a Russian ancestry; 
I live in a humor-free zone.""  (Other Liberals have described 
that, in small, private gatherings, Ignatieff can be both 
warm and funny, and have even claimed that -- contrary to his 
egghead image -- his favorite TV shows are ""Desperate 
Housewives"" and ""Sex and the City."")  Rossi also commented on 
the intellectual Ignatieff's insistence on new substance in 
each speech, rather than perfecting a good stump speech for 
general use.  As a result, he explained, Ignatieff actually 
thinks about what he is saying as he says it in each speech, 
resulting in him often looking up or at his feet as he 
pondered, rather than connecting with the crowd.   Rossi 
indicated some frustration that Ignatieff seemed unable to 
absorb helpful critiques on his delivery. 
 
¶8.  (C)  Ignatieff has admitted publicly that the 
Conservative Party had been entirely successful in ""framing"" 
who he is -- ""Michael Ignatieff:  Just Visiting"" -- and 
insisted that he needed to do more to create his own ""frame."" 
 Liberal Party officials are increasingly antsy for Ignatieff 
to champion some specific substantive policies, a step that 
the Liberals had previously avoided for fear of falling into 
Stephane Dion's ""Green Shift"" disaster, in which the 
Conservatives picked away relentlessly -- and successfully -- 
at the Liberals' then-signature policy.  Numerous Canadian 
columnists have noted that Canadian voters still do not know 
what Ignatieff and the Liberal Party now stand for, or how 
they would govern differently from the Conservatives.  The 
Liberal National Director under Dion, Greg Fergus, wrote in 
an on-line ""Globe and Mail"" op ed article  on October 6 that 
it was now ""Deep Breath Time for the Liberals,"" requiring 
""hard work"" and ""near pitch-perfect delivery"" by Ignatieff 
and the Liberals, as well as urging a new ""thinkers' 
convention"" to come up with some ""freshly minted ideas."" 
Fergus told PolMinCouns that Ignatieff quickly called him 
personally to praise the article and that the Liberals have 
subsequently hired him back as an advisor for the conference, 
 
OTTAWA 00000795  003 OF 003 
 
 
which will take place in Montreal January 14-16.  Other 
Liberals, however, are dismayed that the party has put off 
this event until January, leaving the real possibility of 
continued slump and slide during the fall.  Fergus even 
expressed worries that the Liberals may have entered a period 
of up to as much as 6-8 years in the ""political wilderness"" 
of opposition. 
 
BUT NO OTHER CHOICE FOR NOW? 
---------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (C)  For the foreseeable future, however, it is Ignatieff 
at the Liberal helm.  Insiders say that there is no obvious 
person to replace him, should he do the unthinkable and 
resign before the next election -- which few now expect 
before spring 2010 at the earliest (although many remain 
suspicious that the Conservatives may surprise everyone by 
somehow triggering one this fall).  The only name that still 
comes up is Bob Rae -- another 62 year old white male from 
Toronto -- who has now lost the leadership sweepstakes twice 
and who has privately insisted that his sole remaining 
political ambition is to be Foreign Minister.  Many Liberals 
are concerned that the ""new blood"" of the Liberal Party is 
apparently so anemic, with no real stars on the horizon -- 
apart from Justin Trudeau, who most describe as eminently 
likeable but sadly prone to stray off script -- not the 
sure-fire leadership a successful Liberal Party will need. 
 
 
Visit Canada,s North American partnership community at 
http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / 
 
JACOBSON