VZCZCXRO0995
PP RUEHSL
DE RUEHNY #0635/01 2881526
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 151526Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY OSLO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7885
INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEPGBA/CDR USEUCOM INTEL VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 OSLO 000635 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2010 
TAGS: MCAP MOPS MARR NATO AF NO
SUBJECT: NORWAY'S 2010 DEFENSE BUDGET: HIGH NORTH AND 
INTERNATIONAL ENGAGEMENTS 
 
REF: OSLO 632 
 
Classified By: Charge d'affaires James T. Heg for reasons 
1.4(b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (S/NF) Summary: Deputy Defense Minister Espen Barth-Eide 
outlined October 13 his talking points for the NATO new 
Strategic Concept discussion in Luxembourg October 16. He 
emphasized that striking a balance between in-area and 
out-of-area operations is key to ensuring that NATO remains 
relevant to the public and capable of defending homeland 
territories, while deploying expeditionary forces to 
eliminate threats emanating from abroad.  He noted that 
Norway's 2010 defense budget will include a 395 million 
Norwegian Kroner (about USD 70 million) real increase, with 
the High North (Arctic area) remaining Norway's top defense 
and foreign policy priority.  Additional funds will focus on 
improved and increased capabilities for all of Norway's armed 
forces, including the Coast Guard.  Russian offensive 
exercises off Norway's coast have demonstrated that Russian 
forces over the past few years are increasingly well-funded 
and better trained, said Barth-Eide. However, Norway did not 
view the exercises as much of a threat, but rather as 
Russia's attempt to emerge as the dominant Arctic power by 
default.  If other Arctic nations and Europe fail to engage 
pro-actively to counter Russia's influence, particularly its 
soft power influence, he warned, Russia will set the Arctic 
agenda. On Afghanistan, Barth-Eide affirmed that Norway will 
remain engaged as long as necessary and plans to send better 
trained troops and more officers to assist Afghan capacity 
building.  End Summary. 
 
 
Norway's 2010 Defense Budget 
---------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Deputy MinDef Espen Barth-Eide told CDA, PolOff, 
and A/DATT October 13 that Norway's defense budget in 2010 
would increase by 1.473 billion Norwegian Kroner (NOK), which 
translates into a real increase of about 395 million NOK, or 
approximately USD 70 million, after inflation and salary and 
pension adjustments are taken into account. Norway's top 
priority remains the High North, with spending set aside for 
the purchase of a new frigate and coast guard vessels.  Army 
and Air Force activities in the High North will also be the 
top priority, in addition to maintaining a strong border 
control operation along the 200 km border with Russia, and 
the further development of the new Defense Joint 
Headquarters.  (On August 1 this year, Norway's Joint Defense 
HQ moved from the southern port city of Stavanger to the 
northern city of Reitan, outside of Bodo.) 
 
Nordic Cooperation 
------------------ 
 
¶3. (C) Bringing Sweden and Finland closer to NATO would be 
the likely outcome of increased Nordic Cooperation, according 
to Barth-Eide.  He noted that Norway and Sweden will jointly 
acquire land-based artillery in 2010; however, he did not 
name any other specific opportunities for collaboration. 
Barth-Eide reiterated that NATO is and will remain Norway's 
top priority. 
 
Afghanistan 
----------- 
 
¶4. (C) Norway's 2010 budget prioritizes military engagement 
in Afghanistan, with a focus on capacity building designed to 
strengthen Afghan ability to achieve stability and security. 
Barth-Eide said that the goal is to keep troop levels steady, 
while sending out more experienced and trained troops and 
additional officers and to focus on Operational Mentoring and 
Liaison Teams (OMLTs).  The end result, he said, would be an 
increase in quality and not numbers.  He echoed several other 
Norwegian political leaders by adding that Norway will remain 
in Afghanistan, and depart only when all allies agree that 
the situation allows for re-deployment (reftel). 
 
Article 5 and NATO's new Strategic Concept 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶5.  (C) Espen Barth-Eide will address the October 16 meeting 
in Luxembourg of NATO's Strategic Concept Experts Working 
Group, on the topic ""Core Tasks of the Alliance and Article 
5.""  Barth-Eide said he would focus the discussion on 
striking a balance between in- and out-of-area operations, 
with the focus on three basic tasks:  consolidate emerging 
democracies, manage Russia, and engage militarily with 
 
OSLO 00000635  002 OF 002 
 
 
expeditionary forces as necessary.  Barth-Eide emphasized 
that as NATO's has transitioned into the 21st century, a 
growing challenge has been ensuring that new generations see 
NATO as a relevant organization and remain supportive over 
the coming years.  He added that NATO still maintains high 
popularity among the Norwegian public at large, at least for 
now. 
 
¶6.  (C) Barth-Eide said the Baltic states are truly concerned 
about the lack of planning in NATO, and feel as though they 
don't know who to call when they need urgent assistance in 
case of an emergency.  Barth-Eide said a way to alleviate 
their concerns would be:  1) an increase in NATO exercises 
which include participation from regional commands such as 
Brunssum; 2) in theater regional-responsibilities assigned to 
NATO commands (He referred to the current structure as 
""post-modern,"" lacking coherent structure to deal with 
potential emergencies in NATO countries), and 3) a vision 
statement that does not dismiss geopolitics and the potential 
for localized conflicts in regional settings.  Barth-Eide 
cited the situation in Georgia as an example.  He concluded 
by noting the importance of taking ""real politik"" into 
consideration as NATO drafts its new Strategic Concept. 
 
High North NATO-hatted exercise and Russian Maneuvering 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶7. (S/NF) Barth-Eide gave the standard Norwegian line on the 
importance of the High North, and said that Norway would 
likely request that the 2010 Cold Response exercise be hatted 
as a NATO exercise.  (Comment:  Barth-Eide did not provide 
specifics on when a request would be submitted to NATO, and 
our MFA colleagues recently emphasized that the way forward 
will be the ""High North, low tension"" version of Norwegian 
policy, i.e. no NATO exercises that could provoke the 
Russians, so whether a request is submitted appears to remain 
open to debate.  End Comment.)  He brought up the importance 
of military surveillance and assistance to civilian shipping, 
as new trade routes are opened in the Arctic.  He also noted 
that the Russian military exercises along Norway's coast were 
offensive, and that Russian forces had a marked and fast 
increase in capacity: they have more planes that are in 
better shape, and fly in more complex formations, altogether 
demonstrating improved integrated planning.  However, he 
emphasized that the Russians prefer to be included in 
discussions and be seen as relevant; their offensive 
exercises tend to increase when they perceive that 
discussions are proceeding without their participation. 
Barth-Eide said therefore he was not too worried about the 
maneuvers, but added that Norway and other Arctic and 
European actors needed to remain heavily engaged to ensure 
that Russia doesn't dominate the area by default. 
HEG