VZCZCXYZ0011
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNY #0604/01 2751438
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 021438Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY OSLO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7853
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS OSLO 000604 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/NB 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON SCUL NO
SUBJECT:  Slight Cabinet Reshuffle Expected after Budget 
Presentation to Parliament October 13 
 
REF:  Oslo 0570 
 
¶1.  (U) Summary:  As a result of Labor's strong showing in the 
September 14 Parliamentary (Storting) elections, the Labor Party 
will have more influence and the Socialist Left Party (SV) less 
influence in the newly re-elected three-party Red-Green Coalition 
government.  Press speculation on the nature of the upcoming cabinet 
shuffle has been rife since PM Stoltenberg kicked off coalition 
negotiations on a common governing platform and a new cabinet early 
this week upon his return from UNGA.  The Prime Minister signaled he 
does not intend to announce a new cabinet until a day or two after 
the government presents its 2010 budget to the Storting on October 
¶13.  While the slight cabinet reshuffle has not yet taken form, all 
signs from those close to the talks continue to indicate the changes 
will not impact U.S. interests in any significant way, and certainly 
not in the defense or foreign policy areas.  End Summary. 
 
Socialist Left Facing New Political Reality 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) When the Labor, Socialist Left Party (SV) and Center Party 
(SP) leaders sat down to negotiate their first common governing 
platform in 2005, which became known as the Soria Moraya 
Declaration, it was for the first time in history.  The newcomer to 
government at that time, SV, had campaigned on extreme positions, 
including about the United States and the war in Iraq, going so far 
as to call the U.S. "the biggest threat to world peace."  This time 
around, the Red-Greens have governed together for four years, during 
which time SV moderated its positions on everything from Norway's 
role in NATO to Norway's continued significant participation in 
Afghanistan, often falling in line with Labor's lead, at least in 
practice.  (Its individual party platform officially retains many of 
its more left-leaning elements, but the party has not governed from 
those extreme positions.)  Many commentators speculated after the 
election that it was this moderation which led to the disappointing 
drop in their share of the popular vote.  For Kristin Halvorsen's SV 
party, decisions on what concessions to make to Labor during this 
month's common platform negotiations will likely hinge on whether it 
is deemed politically viable for them to stay in a coalition 
government where they have to make so many concessions, or whether 
they can boost their chances in the 2013 elections by going back 
into their natural territory, the opposition. 
 
Reshuffling, with only Minor Implications for us 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) As reporQd in Reftel, Labor increased its mandate to 35.4 
percent of the electorate, making it three times the size of its two 
junior partners combined.  SV and the other coalition member, the 
Center Party (SP), each received 6.2 percent of the votes.  All 
three party leaders are keeping their cards close their chests, and 
as a result, few rumors have yet leaked out from the internal 
platform and cabinet talks.  What is evident is that the Minister of 
Foreign Affairs, Jonas Gahr Stoere (Labor), will stay in that 
position for another four years.  Minister of Defense Anne Grete 
Stroem-Erichsen (Labor) is also reportedly likely to stay on, 
although many commentators have speculated that her deputy Espen 
Barth-Eide is ready for new challenges and is capable of taking on 
the ministerial post himself, perhaps sometime within the 
government's four-year term.  Finance Minister Kristin Halvorsen 
(SV) was initially rumored to want to take on an "easier" post in 
order to brand SV better within the government on the party's key 
social and environmental policies.  Most coalition insiders we have 
spoken with now speculate, however, that she intends to hold on to 
the Finance portfolio. 
 
(4)  (U) Before the cabinet shuffle is complete, the government has 
already begun to allocate committee chairmanships in the Storting, 
and those allocations were announced this week.  At the same time, 
two current Labor Party ministers will definitely move from the 
cabinet to the Parliament to take up key positions in Parliament. 
The Minister of Labor and Inclusion, Dag Terje Andersen, will resign 
and become the new Storting President (akin to the Speaker of 
Parliament, and a very high ranking member of the GON hierarchy. 
Andersen succeeds Thorbjorn Jagland who was just elected President 
of the 47-nation Council of Europe.  Andersen's Ministry of Labor 
and Inclusion is likely to be awarded to another Labor Party 
politician.  Meanwhile, the current Minister of Fisheries, Helga 
Pedersen, announced that she will resign from the cabinet to become 
the Labor Party's parliamentary leader.  In that role, she will head 
the party's Storting caucus which rose from 61 to 64 members with 
the recent elections, and she will also become essentially number 
two in the Labor party behind PM Stoltenberg.  Terje Riis-Johansen 
(Center Party) who currently serves as Minister of Oil and Energy is 
rumored to have plans to step down.  He would likely be replaced by 
either a Labor Party or business-friendly Center Party politician. 
Presentation to Parliament October 13 
 
SV and SP May Succeed in "No to EU" and "No to Drilling" Platform 
Goals 
--------------------------------------------- - 
¶5.  (SBU) The Socialist Left Party's main concerns have been 
environmental policy, asylum policy, and foreign and defense policy. 
 The party is likely to lose the two latter battles in the current 
coalition platform negotiations.  The Labor-led coalition has 
already signaled clearly and often that Norway intends to remain a 
steadfast partner with ISAF in Afghanistan.  As for immigration and 
asylum policy, the Stoltenberg government can hardly go back on the 
new slight restrictions it finally began to put in place after harsh 
criticism from the right.  So what battle can SV and the other 
junior coalition partner SP hope to win in platform negotiations? 
Contacts tell post that together with SP, SV is likely to win 
another four-year moratorium on any new Norwegian application for EU 
membership.  The Labor Party has been internally split on the 
matter, anyway, and the last two applications in 1972 and 1994 ended 
in popular referenda against EU membership.  Also together with the 
Center Party, SV is likely to persuade the Labor Party to drop any 
concrete plans it might have considered for oil drilling and 
exploration off the protected Lofoten and Vesteralen coast, as well 
as exploration off the island Jan Mayen, at least for the next four 
years.  An independent environmental assessment is expected by 2011 
on whether or not drilling in Lofoten and Vesteralen is 
environmentally sustainable.  If at that time or any other point, 
the Labor Party decides to move forward on drilling, SV and SP have 
laid down a marker that they would leave the coalition. 
 
Opposition Parties Get Committee Chairmanships, Including Foreign 
Policy and Defense 
--------------------------------------------- - 
¶6.  (SBU) This week, committee chairmanships for the new Parliament 
were awarded, as the new Storting prepares to hold its opening 
session on October 8.  The majority party or parties in Norway don't 
get all the Committee chair positions; opposition parties often also 
get a significant share of chairmanships and of first and second 
deputy chairmanships.  Days after she took over as Labor Party 
caucus leader this week, Helga Pedersen announced the following, to 
the delight of the opposition parties and to some grumbling from 
Labor party commentators who believe the party is being too 
generous:  Labor will get the chairmanship of four committees.  The 
next largest party, the opposition Progress Party (FrP), will get 
three, including - interestingly - the Justice Affairs committee, as 
well as Labor and Social Affairs and "Scrutiny and Constitutional 
Affairs."  The Conservative Party (Hoyre) will chair two committees, 
including the newly combined Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, 
which meets for the first time this fall in that new status.  (Note: 
 In the outgoing parliament, Hoyre's Jan Pedersen chaired the 
Defense committee, while Labor's Olav Akselsen chaired the Foreign 
Affairs Committee.  End note.) 
 
¶7.  (U) Governing coalition members SV and SP will get one committee 
chairmanship each, the Local Government and Regional Affairs 
Committee and the Energy and Environment Committee, respectively. 
The Christian Democrats (KrF), meanwhile, will chair the 
Transportation Committee.  The small opposition party Venstre, or 
Liberals, was largely decimated in the recent election and is down 
to only two seats.  It is the only party in the new parliament which 
will not chair a committee.  Each party will nominate individuals to 
its assigned committee chairmanships as soon as PM Jens Stoltenberg 
announces his cabinet, which is currently expected to take place on 
October 14 or 15. 
 
HEG