VZCZCXRO5921
OO RUEHBC RUEHBZ RUEHDE RUEHDH RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHKUK RUEHMA
RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHNJ #0466/01 2941242
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 211242Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7337
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NDJAMENA 000466 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR AF/C, S/USSES 
NSC FOR GAVIN 
LONDON FOR POL - LORD 
PARIS FOR POL - BAIN AND KANEDA 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR AU 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PREF PHUM FR SU CD
SUBJECT: CHAD:  FRENCH HERE CONTINUE BULLISH ON CHAD-SUDAN, 
REBEL RETURNS, AND POLITICAL REFORM PROCESS 
 
REF: A. N'DJAMENA 401 
     ¶B. N'DJAMENA 457 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1.  (SBU)  French DCM Erwan de Gouvello gave DCM an example 
of his nation's continued optimism about the prospects for 
Chad-Sudan rapprochement, GOC outreach to Chad rebels, and 
Chad's own progress toward improved standards of governance, 
based on the October 14-21 visit of Chadian President Idriss 
Deby Itno to Paris.  Although the Deby visit was nominally 
private in nature, Deby did have meetings with President 
Sarkozy, among others, did successful outreach to former 
regime opponents, and gave interviews to Le Figaro and Radio 
France Internationale. 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  French policy is pro-regime and the French 
interpretation of events here inevitably takes on a pro-Deby 
glow, with accomplishments maximized and deficiencies 
minimized.  Even so, we and the other more critical members 
of the diplomatic community here generally share France's 
current positive and optimistic sense of the way things have 
been going recently.  One key question is what will become of 
returned rebels and regime opponents such as Soubiane as they 
reenter public life in Chad.  Many of them condition their 
returns on being offered senior positions.  The rumor that we 
and the French hope will remain just that and not/not 
materialize is the buzz that Soubiane will get the MFA:  We 
think that Faki is doing an outstanding job as FORMIN and 
hope he will continue in that key position for some time. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
---------------- 
GALLIC OPTIMISM: 
SUDAN AND JEM 
---------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  Gouvello told DCM that France thought Chad was in 
better shape at present than it had been in many previous 
months, both in terms of relations with Sudan (including the 
Chad rebels) and domestic politics.  Gouvello claimed that 
Deby had struck his French interlocutors as "quite tired of 
the JEM," having come to see it as an encumbrance 
particularly now that mutual confidence-building measures 
with Khartoum had been proposed.  According to Gouvello, Deby 
was concerned that the JEM was "out of control" militarily, 
and unwilling to let his own nation's reputation on the human 
rights front be further tarnished by JEM actions for which 
the Chadian National Army might find itself held accountable. 
 
¶4.  Gouvello confirmed that Deby had spoken positively about 
the October 10 visit of Sudanese Presidential Adviser Ghazi 
Salahuddin to N'Djamena, and seemed relatively hopeful that 
the Sudanese side would manage to "take a concrete step," 
namely to canton Chad rebels far from the Chadian border. 
Deby expressed frustration that the international community 
had been slow to appreciate the problems that the Chadian 
rebels had posed and would continue to pose if they could not 
be brought under control.  He asked France to put pressure on 
Sudan to proceed with cantoning them, after which Deby made 
clear that he would demonstrate to Sudanese visitors that 
anti-Sudan rebels were no longer welcome in Chad and that 
there were "no JEM military bases" in Chad. 
 
--------------------- 
OUTREACH TO OPPONENTS 
--------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  While in Paris, Deby met with Chadian regime 
opponent Mahamat Nahor N'Gawara, who informed Deby that he 
was prepared to end his exile and return to Chad.  Gouvello 
did not have a read-out of that session, but he did note that 
France saw the rebel return process as essentially working on 
its own incremental terms, and that the arrival of key former 
rebels such as the Movement Nationale's Ahmat Hasaballah 
Soubiane, who came back to N'Djamena October 18, and exiled 
dissidents such as Nahor, would increase momentum for 
additional returns and for national reconciliation. 
 
 
NDJAMENA 00000466  002 OF 002 
 
 
---------------- 
POLITICAL REFORM 
----------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  As for Chadian domestic politics, Gouvello said 
that France believed Deby was pursuing various domestic 
betterment projects because he saw that improving his 
country's circumstances was his role, and because doing so 
was good electoral politics.  The subject of Chadian 
elections had come up in several of Deby's meetings, said 
Gouvello.  The French had the impression that Deby was 
committed to holding them in 2010-2011, as he had stated 
publicly to RFI, although "one never knows in Chad," said 
Gouvello. 
 
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COMMENT 
-------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  As noted in Ref A, French policy is pro-regime and 
French interpretation of events here inevitably takes on a 
pro-Deby glow, with accomplishments maximized and 
deficiencies minimized.  Even so, we and the other more 
critical members of the diplomatic community generally share 
France's positive and optimistic sense of the way things have 
been going recently. 
 
¶8. (SBU)  As indicated in Ref B, one key question is what 
will become of returned rebels and regime opponents such as 
Ahmat Soubiane once they reenter public life in Chad.  Many 
of these figures condition their returns on being offered 
senior positions.  The rumor that we and the French hope will 
remain just that and not/not materialize is the buzz that 
Soubiane will get the MFA:  We think that Faki is doing an 
outstanding job as FORMIN and we hope he will continue in 
that key position for some time.  END COMMENT. 
 
¶9.  (U)  Minimize considered. 
NIGRO