VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNJ #0441/01 2871734
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 141734Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7301
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE PRIORITY

UNCLAS NDJAMENA 000441 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR AF/C, S/USSES 
NSC FOR GAVIN 
LONDON FOR POL - LORD 
PARIS FOR POL - BAIN AND KANEDA 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR AU 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PREF PHUM CD
SUBJECT: CHAD:  UPDATE ON CIVIL SOCIETY DISCOURSE AND 
OPPOSITION PLANNING 
 
REF: NDJAMENA 410 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1.  (SBU) The Electoral Reform Committee created to implement 
the reforms of the August 13, 2007 Accord continues to focus 
on the 
task of educating civil society on political discourse, in 
preparation for 2010 elections.  After some initial 
uncertainties (reftel), the Committee has organized two 
missions to conduct a country-wide awareness 
("vulgarisation") campaign and has garnered European 
Commission and Swiss financial support for this effort.  The 
Chadian political opposition, however, seems unenthusiastic 
about pushing forward with electoral efforts, perhaps because 
opposition figures believe the 2010 vote is unwinnable except 
by the Deby regime.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------------- 
CREATING A PUBLIC POLITICAL DISCOURSE 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The Electoral Reform Committee (ERC, aka Comite de 
Suivi), created to shepherd electoral reforms outlined in the 
August 13, 2007 political accord between the Chadian 
leadership and political opposition, is beginning to find its 
footing with remaining, admittedly vague, tasks, after its 
achievements this summer in reaching consensus on legislative 
reforms and establishing an Independent Electoral Commission 
(CENI).  The element of the August 13 Accord that still 
squarely falls to the ERC, as opposed to the CENI itself, 
involves improving the general environment for civil society 
participation in the political process.  To date, neither the 
Accord, nor the ERC, has had a particularly well-focused 
strategy for how this task is to b accomplished (reftel).  In 
recent weeks, ERC members have developed several concrete 
plans, and budgets for accomplishing them.  One of these 
involves undertaking a country-wide campaign to publicize 
newly passed electoral legislation, including the electoral 
law and political party charter, and to promote public 
political discourse.  The program calls for two teams, each 
with a multi-week schedule, to travel around the Chadian 
countryside on what are being referred to "vulgarization" 
tours. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) ERC spokesman Salibou Garba told Pol/Econ Chief 
October 13 that members of local civil society organizations 
and press outlets would be included as points of contact in 
the ERC missions.  Several international missions have told 
us that they welcome the increased precision that the ERC has 
developed about the teams, as the IC in general wants to see 
closer ties between the ERC and indigenous civil society 
groups. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Still, the ERC faces significant challenges 
regarding future endeavors.  The European Commission and 
Swiss Cooperation have agreed to provide the majority of 
financing for the upcoming missions, but funding gaps remain. 
 According to Garba, the GOC is unlikely to fund the ERC's 
travel plans per se, and might only provide another three 
months of financial support to the Committee.  The GoC, 
meanwhile, has switched its focus and (limited) ability to 
provide budgetary support to the CENI.  (NOTE:  The two 
entities have separate, but complementary, roles.  END NOTE.) 
 
------------------------------------- 
NEED FOR ENGAGEMENT BY THE OPPOSITION 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) In a separate October 13 discussion, leading 
opposition figure Saleh Kebzabo told Pol/Econ chief that he 
supported the goals of both the ERC and the CENI, but he 
believed that a change in government leadership was truly 
necessary to empower and inspire Chadians to become engaged 
in a vote for the good of the their country.  Kebzabo noted 
that despite the need for change, he was uncertain about the 
need for parliamentary elections next year and was willing to 
"lose time" until a high-tech biometric census could be 
completed.  He admitted that a biometric census would not 
 
guarantee credible elections, but said he felt that it could 
"compel" Chadians to take a greater interest in the process. 
Kebzabo discounted the notion that the next electoral cycle 
presented an opportunity for change, regardless of the type 
of electoral census. 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶6.  (SBU) The ERC's two years of collaboration seem to have 
created some capacity within the body.  With a bit of 
prompting from international partners, the Committee has been 
able to articulate a credible program of work, which has now 
elicited renewed financial support by the EC (Brussels  had 
withdrawn funding when the ERC appeared disorganized earlier 
this summer).  We hope that the "vulgarization" missions are 
not only successful, but that they kick off a larger, more 
concerted outreach campaign to the Chadian body politic.  We 
will consider ways in which the USG might be helpful to its 
efforts.  Meanwhile, we will continue to reach out to the 
opposition to make sure that it remains bought into the 
present electoral effort.  Kebzabo seems to be holding back 
full endorsement of a 2010 vote on grounds that Deby is 
likely to win.  In the coming weeks and months, we will pulse 
the range of opposition figures to better understand their 
current motives.  END COMMENT. 
 
¶7.  (U)  Minimize considered. 
NIGRO