VZCZCXYZ0001
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNR #2245/01 3010527
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 280527Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1407
INFO RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 0643
RUEHAE/AMEMBASSY ASMARA 5331
RUEHDJ/AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI 0220
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 3377
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 7587
RUEHSUN/USMISSION USUN ROME IT
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 4690

UNCLAS NAIROBI 002245 
 
AIDAC 
 
USAID/DCHA JBRAUSE 
DCHA/OFDA FOR CCHAN; ACONVERY; KCHANNELL; MBEERS; 
APIYAKA DCHA/FFP JBORNS; JDWORKEN; SANTHONY; CMUTAMBA; 
DNELSON; 
USAID/AFR/EA JESCALONA 
 
USUN FOR DMERCADO 
ROME FOR HSPANOS 
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH 
BRUSSELS FOR USEU JADDLETON; PBROWN 
NSC FOR CPRATT 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
 
TAGS: EAID PHUM PREL PREF KE
SUBJECT: USAID/OFDA and USAID/FFP Marsabit, Isiolo, and 
Laikipia Districts Drought Assessment 
 
REF: A) NAIROBI 2133 
B) NAIROBI 2067 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1.  (U) From October 5 to 10, USAID's Offices of U.S. 
Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA) and Food for 
Peace (USAID/FFP) staff visited Laikipia District, Rift 
Valley Province, and Isiolo and Marsabit districts, 
Eastern Province, to assess reports of food insecurity 
associated with poor performance of the 2009 long 
rains.  According to local Government of Kenya (GoK) 
officials and district steering groups (DSGs), 
humanitarian conditions in the three districts are 
currently worse than during the 2000-2004 drought due 
to consecutive seasons of below-average rains and 
limited crop and livestock recovery.  While observing 
relatively stable health conditions in the three 
districts, USAID/OFDA staff noted concerns regarding 
deteriorating livestock conditions and adoption of 
negative coping mechanisms among the population.  In 
addition, USAID/FFP staff noted concerns regarding the 
capacity of UN World Food Program (WFP) implementing 
agency the Kenya Red Cross Society (KRCS) to 
effectively conduct general food distributions (GFDs) 
in Marsabit District.  USAID/FFP fully supports WFP 
plans to conduct an independent review of implementing 
partners to institute a more objective partner 
selection process in the future.  End summary. 
 
----------------------------- 
IMPACT OF THE 2009 LONG RAINS 
----------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) According to the Kenya Food Security Steering 
Group (KFSSG), the March to June portion of the 2009 
long rains performed poorly in most areas of the 
country, with four of the eight provinces experiencing 
less than 40 percent of average rainfall for the 
season.  As a result of poor rains, KFSSG reports near- 
total crop failure and significant declines in 
livestock health in affected areas, negatively 
impacting the livelihoods of both pastoral and 
agricultural populations. 
 
¶3.  (U) Pastoralists constitute approximately 90 percent 
of the population in Laikipia, Isiolo, and Marsabit 
districts, with households engaged in agriculture 
representing the remaining 10 percent of the 
population.  In northern pastoral areas, populations 
remain highly vulnerable to food insecurity, as 
successive seasons of insufficient rainfall have 
depleted resource bases and undermined traditional 
coping mechanisms.  As a result of increased food 
insecurity, USAID/OFDA staff noted reports of 
populations engaged in negative coping mechanisms, 
including charcoal collection, pastoral to urban 
migration, and decreased meal consumption.  Ongoing 
drought has also continued to contribute to increased 
inter-ethnic and resource-based conflict, particularly 
in Isiolo District, as well as migration to wildlife 
conservation lands (Ref A).  Despite observing several 
signs of distressed coping mechanisms, USAID/OFDA staff 
note that the ongoing GoK and WFP school feeding 
 
program has mitigated significant school dropout rates, 
with the districts visited reporting an overall 
increase in school enrollment in recent months. 
 
¶4.  (U) In Isiolo District, local GoK officials report 
that successive crop failure and poor long rains have 
resulted in a significantly below average harvest, 
threatening food security among agricultural 
populations.  According to the Isiolo District 
agriculture officer, the majority of irrigated land in 
the district remains empty, as the Uasin Gishu River 
currently lacks water.  However, USAID/OFDA staff 
observed limited cropping under drip irrigation and 
ongoing preparations for planting during the October to 
December short rains. 
 
---------------------------------- 
DETERIORATING LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) Ongoing drought conditions and limited water and 
pasture availability have resulted in increased 
livestock deaths and disease and extended livestock 
migration patterns in most pastoral areas.  According 
to GoK officials, between 40 and 70 percent of 
livestock in Laikipia, Isiolo, and Marsabit districts 
have died due to lack of pasture and associated 
nutritional deficiencies, as well as disease.  As herd 
sizes diminish, relief agencies note reports of 
increasing cattle theft to replenish depleted 
livestock, particularly in Isiolo and Samburu districts 
(Ref A).  According to FEWS NET, cattle raids in the 
two districts during September killed an estimated 10 
pastoralists and led to the seizure of more than 1,000 
livestock. 
 
¶6.  (U) Drought-affected pastoralists have moved the 
majority of remaining cattle long distances in search 
of water and pasture, resulting in declining livestock 
health and increased resource-related competition. 
According to FEWS NET, deteriorating livestock body 
conditions associated with increased trekking distances 
have negatively affected the purchasing power of 
pastoralists.  In October, FEWS NET reported cattle and 
goat prices approximately 40 percent below average in 
pastoralist areas, with cereal prices remaining more 
than 100 percent above average.  In response, the GoK 
is operating a small-scale destocking program to buy 
cattle at above-market prices and distribute meat to 
the local population.  The GoK has also provided 
immunizations, medications, and fodder in affected 
districts. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
HEALTH AND WATER, SANITATION, AND HYGIENE 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (U) Successive seasons of poor rains have resulted 
in significant water shortages in drought-affected 
areas of Kenya.  In Isiolo and Laikipia districts, the 
GoK reports that the majority of boreholes, dams, and 
wells have dried up, necessitating GoK water tankering 
and rationing activities.  In the North Horr area of 
Marsabit District, USAID/OFDA observed sufficient water 
availability due in part to ongoing USAID/OFDA-funded 
partner Food for the Hungry (FH) initiatives.  However, 
 
USAID/OFDA and USAID/FFP staff noted limited pasture 
availability in area due to significant livestock 
migration from drought-affected areas to North Horr in 
search of water.  FH food-for-work activities in North 
Horr work to mitigate the impact of reduced rains 
through the construction of water canals. 
 
¶8.  (U) Poor access to water and limited sanitation 
facilities have also contributed to increased incidence 
of waterborne diseases in drought-affected areas. 
Despite reports of increased cholera and acute watery 
diarrhea (AWD) cases in Isiolo District in recent 
months, district health officials note that the number 
of cases remains within seasonal averages.  As of mid- 
October, health facilities in the district maintained 
an overall low volume of activity, with no reported 
active cholera or AWD cases.  However, health personnel 
noted limited staff availability to respond to 
potential disease outbreaks.  As the current rainy 
season progresses, relief agencies have expressed 
concerns regarding increased incidence of waterborne 
diseases associated with heavy rainfall. 
 
--------- 
NUTRITION 
--------- 
 
¶9.  (U) Recent nutritional surveys indicate critical 
nutrition conditions throughout Kenya, including in 
areas not previously experiencing significant global 
acute malnutrition (GAM) rates.  Preliminary results 
from a World Vision nutrition survey conducted between 
May and June in southern Marsabit District revealed GAM 
rates of between 20 and 30 percent among children, 
significantly above the emergency threshold of 15 
percent.  In the districts visited, however, USAID/OFDA 
staff noted an effective malnutrition response, with 
adequate supplemental and therapeutic feeding supplies 
available and ongoing outreach and supplemental feeding 
activities occurring in even the most remote areas. 
Based on observations and random measurement of 
children, USAID/OFDA staff noted that the population in 
the districts appeared relatively healthy, most likely 
due to ongoing nutrition interventions. 
 
--------------- 
Food Assistance 
--------------- 
 
¶10.  (U) In Laikipia, Isiolo, and Marsabit districts, 
USAID/FFP partner WFP conducts GFDs through lead 
agencies Caritas Nyeri, ActionAid, and KRCS, 
respectively.  WFP-supported GFDs target approximately 
68,000 people--or 16 percent of the population--in 
Laikipia District, 43,000 individuals--or 34 percent of 
the population--in Isiolo District, and 80,000 others-- 
or 60 percent of the population--in Marsabit District, 
with increases in beneficiary caseloads expected during 
October distributions.  Households in the districts 
consistently report sharing rations, particularly among 
pastoralist populations, due to deteriorating food 
security among the population. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Upholding previous concerns (Ref B), WFP 
notes that KRCS has demonstrated poor capacity in 
implementing GFDs in Marsabit District.  For instance, 
 
WFP staff recently noted that KRCS had employed only 
one food monitor for 12 simultaneous food 
distributions, with no means of transport.  Reports 
have also indicated that food transport contracts have 
benefited politically-connected individuals, as well as 
particular ethnic groups.  While the situation in 
Marsabit has improved recently compared to early 2009, 
KRCS/Nairobi still appears to be providing relatively 
little support to the field. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) However, WFP reports no effective way to 
immediately rectify the situation, as DSGs currently 
select lead agencies for WFP distributions and have 
demonstrated substantial support for KRCS.  Observers 
note that KRCS exerted significant effort to be 
selected as the lead agency for GFDs throughout the 
country, including by influencing DSGs and politicians 
through the provision of incentives, such as hiring 
recommended staff and providing services in particular 
areas.  (Note:  Serving as a lead agency for a WFP GFD, 
particularly in Marsabit--geographically Kenya's second 
largest district--provides organizations, such as KRCS, 
with a significant amount of WFP financial support, 
including food transport costs and funding for vehicles 
and field staff.  End Note.) 
 
¶13.  (SBU) Given the consistent allegations against 
KRCS countrywide and confirmed poor implementation 
capacity in the field, WFP plans to conduct an 
independent performance review of partners by December, 
including financial management, with a view toward 
instituting a more objective partner selection process 
starting in April.  USAID/FFP fully supports this 
process and will review the draft terms of reference in 
the coming days. 
 
---------- 
CONCLUSION 
---------- 
 
¶14.  (U) Although relief agencies expect enhanced 
October to December short rains to replenish water and 
pasture in drought-affected areas, current shortages 
continue to result in deteriorating food security 
conditions among both pastoral and agricultural 
populations in Laikipia, Isiolo, and Marsabit 
districts.  As the short rains progress, FEWS NET 
projects slight improvements in food security in 
drought-affected areas, following an initial upsurge in 
livestock mortality.  However, relief agencies caution 
that livelihood recovery may take several years due to 
the significant rates of animal death and resource 
depletion during the recent drought.  To mitigate the 
effects of future dry seasons, USAID/OFDA notes a need 
for enhanced water catchment and storage in drought- 
affected areas, as well as continued efforts to 
strengthen livelihoods.  USAID/OFDA and USAID/FFP staff 
will continue to closely monitor conditions in drought- 
affected areas and determine appropriate interventions 
as the situation evolves. 
 
¶15.  (U) In Fiscal Year (FY) 2009, USAID/OFDA provided 
more than USD 24 million in funding to support 
nutrition, economic recovery and market systems, 
health, agriculture and food security, and water, 
sanitation, and hygiene interventions, as well as local 
 
food procurement and distribution in Kenya.  Of the 
total, USAID/OFDA provided USD 15 million to 
implementing partner FH to strengthen livelihood 
opportunities, protect and diversify household assets, 
and increase agricultural productivity among more than 
663,000 vulnerable pastoralists throughout northern and 
eastern areas of Kenya, including Marsabit District. 
In FY 2009 and to date in FY 2010, USAID/FFP has 
provided approximately 180,040 metric tons of P.L. 480 
Title II emergency food assistance, valued at nearly 
USD 184 million, through WFP for drought-affected and 
refugee populations in Kenya. 
 
RANNEBERGER