VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMN #0608/01 2991803
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 261803Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9427
INFO RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 2655
RUCNMER/MESUR COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000608 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/BSC MARY DASCHBACH 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON UY
SUBJECT: URUGUAYAN ELECTIONS: MUJICA ON TOP WITH TOUGH RUNOFF 
ON HORIZON 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (U) Jose Mujica of the ruling Frente Amplio coalition (FA) 
and Luis Alberto Lacalle of the National Party (Blancos) will 
face off for the presidency in a November 29 runoff, after 
neither candidate was able to capture 50 percent of the vote 
in national elections October 25.  With 98.5 percent of the 
votes counted, Mujica claimed 47.5 percent of the vote, while 
Lacalle finished in second with between 28.5 percent. 
Colorado Party candidate Pedro Bordaberry surprised many by 
gaining 16.6 percent of the vote, significantly boosting that 
party's representation in Parliament.  With the final counts 
still pending the day after the vote, it appears that the FA 
will fall just short of a parliamentary majority.  Mujica is 
in a strong position to win in November, but National Party 
supporters are encouraged by the results, as projections show 
they will be supported by most Colorado voters, which could 
put them back in the game.  END SUMMARY. 
 
MUJICA LEADS, LACALLE IN SECOND 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Former Tupamaro guerrilla Jose Mujica and the Frente 
Amplio coalition claimed between 47.5 percent of the vote in 
SundayQs elections, with former President Luis Alberto 
LacalleQs National Party finishing in second with 28.5 
percent.  As neither candidate was able to surpass the 
threshold of 50 percent of the electorate plus one vote, a 
runoff will be held between Mujica and Lacalle on November 29. 
 
¶3. (U) The Colorado Party is considered the big winner, 
pulling in nearly 16.6 percent Q more than 60 percent gain 
over the 2004 elections, which demonstrates the partyQs 
remarkable renewal under new leader Pedro Bordaberry. 
BordaberryQs celebratory speech included a declaration of his 
intent to vote for Lacalle in the runoff based on his belief 
that this decision would be Qbest for Uruguay.Q  Colorado 
voters were already expected to vote for Lacalle in November, 
but this announcement is a sign that Bordaberry will do his 
upmost to help Lacalle win. 
 
¶4. (U) The Independent Party made a positive showing with 2.4 
percent, but failed to receive enough votes to have 
representation in the Senate.  Despite this blow, Independent 
Party voters will play a key role in determining the next 
president, since, based on current levels of support, the FA 
only needs another 2.5 percent of the vote to win in November. 
 
¶5. (U) The FA support roughly met the expectations of most 
pollsters, who had reported a 44-45 percent intention to vote 
and had predicted the Frente would get a few more points from 
the undecideds.  Analysts also predicted the National Party 
would receive about 30 percent.  As anticipated, the FA won by 
a substantial margin in Montevideo and the neighboring 
department of Canelones.  The FA gained the highest number of 
votes in most of the departments bordering Argentina, 
including Blanco vice presidential candidate Jorge LarranagaQs 
home turf, Paysandu.  The Colorado showing in the interior was 
significant, however, with the party pulling in 20-30 percent 
in some departments.  Because of this, Lacalle will go into 
the runoff with an advantage in the interior. 
 
¶6. (U) Following the release of the unofficial results, 
supporters of the major parties convened in three different 
areas of Montevideo.  Mujica spoke to a crowd of thousands of 
FA supporters gathered outside the NH Columbia hotel in a 
carnival-like atmosphere, clogging the main road along the Rio 
de la Plata.  Despite their strong showing, Mujica and 
running-mate Astori didn't wear winners' grins during their 
addresses to the thousands of FA supporters in the streets; 
they were unable to hide their disappointment with the failure 
to win in the first round and the possible loss of the 
parliamentary majority. 
 
¶7. (U) Lacalle later addressed a smaller group of National 
Party members occupying a corner of a plaza in the historical 
center of Montevideo.  The Colorado Party celebrated in its 
traditional headquarters - an antique building which, filled 
with young party faithful, mirrored the Colorado PartyQs 
current image of an old party buoyed by new ideas. 
 
PARLIAMENT EVENLY SPLIT 
----------------------- 
 
¶8. (U) The makeup of the Parliament is still unknown, but the 
FA appears to be on the brink of losing the absolute majority 
it has enjoyed for the past five years.  Currently, the FA is 
projected to win 15 out of 30 seats in the Senate and 49 out 
 
 
of 99 seats in the Congress of Deputies.  The National Party 
will have 9-10 Senate seats and 29-30 spots in Congress while 
the Colorado Party claimed 5-6 seats in the Senate and 
approximately 18 seats in the lower house.  Both Mujica and 
Lacalle have pledged to reach across the aisle, and coalitions 
will likely begin to form in the weeks to come. 
 
BOTH REFERENDA FAIL 
------------------- 
 
¶9. (U) Voters also rejected a controversial referendum 
annulling a law known as the Ley de Caducidad (the Expiry 
Law), which guaranteed amnesty for those accused of human 
rights abuses during the dictatorship.  A second referendum 
allowing the Uruguayan diaspora to vote from outside the 
country also failed, receiving only 38 percent support.  This 
was an unexpected outcome, as pollsters projected a much 
closer result with polls indicating 48 percent support.  The 
failure of the referenda served as a disappointment to many 
Frente Amplio supporters who had supported the measures.  In 
reference to the absentee voting referendum, Mujica lamented 
that voters didnQt want to allow their compatriots living 
outside the country equal opportunity to vote, but noted that 
the government would always respect the will of the people. 
 
ATMOSPHERICS 
------------ 
 
¶10. (U) The elections proceeded smoothly, with an estimated 90 
percent turnout and almost no complaints about irregularities. 
Frente Amplio activists enthusiastically dominated the streets 
of Montevideo. 
 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) Interestingly, although MujicaQs vote count should 
put him in a strong position to triumph in November, most 
Uruguayans view the result as a slowing of his (and his 
partyQs) momentum.  The unpleasant reality is that Mujica did 
worse than Vazquez five years before, despite the FrenteQs 
successful first term in office.  The National Party is hoping 
that, with BordaberryQs help in a head-to-head contest, 
Lacalle will convince the electorate that he is best suited to 
govern and to represent Uruguay abroad.  At this point, we 
expect it to be a tough fight.  End Comment. 
 
MATTHEWMAN