VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMN #0572/01 2791747
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 061747Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9390
INFO RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 2647
RUCNMER/MESUR COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000572 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/BSC MARY DASCHBACH 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON UY
SUBJECT:  Uruguay Presidential Campaign Programs Released 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  After months of campaigning, in September, leading 
Uruguayan presidential candidates Jose Mujica and Luis Alberto 
Lacalle released their respective proposals for government. 
As both documents make clear, the fight for votes continues to 
be concentrated on the political middle ground.  Consequently, 
there is a striking degree of overlap between the two 
documents, although LacalleQs National (Blanco) Party document 
is notable for setting its horizons beyond MERCOSUR while 
MujicaQs ruling Frente Amplio (FA) proposal includes specific 
targets for some aspects of economic and social development. 
End Summary. 
 
Two Documents, One Target 
------------------------- 
¶2.  Weeks away from the October 25 national poll, analysts 
continue to predict an exceptionally close election.   With 
the latest polls suggesting that the number of undecided 
voters has risen to a record 12 percent, tension continues to 
build in a race which, despite the polarized political 
profiles of the candidates, remains largely focused on 
capturing voters in the center. 
 
¶3.  Both parties recently released extensive proposals for 
government after months of campaigning.  The Frente AmplioQs 
QElectoral PlatformQ, published September 20, is structured 
around the notion that the governmentQs initial five years has 
been a success and that they would like to offer more of the 
same. The document lists the governmentQs accomplishments in 
the relevant area, then offers proposals to extend and deepen 
these advances.  Meanwhile, the BlancosQ QGovernment Program 
2010-15Q, released August 27, faces the challenge of 
presenting a distinct and credible program to set against a 
popular administration.  Over three times longer than the FA 
document, the Blanco proposal arranges its conservative themes 
of independence, justice and prosperity around more 
traditional chapter headings such as economy, production and 
social development.  Both documents make bold but broad claims 
for significant national investments, but the FA document 
occasionally punctures the fuzziness of aspiration with 
specific targets for training, housing and employment. 
 
MERCOSUR and the Wider Region 
----------------------------- 
 
¶4.  Both parties argue for improvements in the regional 
integration mechanism, Mercosur.  The FA pushes for 
consolidation and extension of the institution.  In contrast, 
while LacalleQs proposal acknowledges the importance of 
regional trade and aims to deepen MERCOSUR as a trade body, it 
is much more explicit in calling for commerce beyond the 
bounds of the trading block, proposing, amongst other things, 
to exploit commercial agreements with Mexico in order trade 
with NAFTA.  It emphatically rejects any political role for 
MERCOSUR and, furthermore, appears to set itself against the 
recently created UNASUR (which the FA pledges to support), 
declaring that a Lacalle government will actively oppose any 
political organisms Qsuch as UNASURQ who Qwork against 
regional unityQ and Qthreaten IndependenceQ. 
 
 
Economic Policy 
--------------- 
¶5.  Both the FA and Blanco documents present variations of an 
active, market-friendly economy with a social focus.  MujicaQs 
campaign, buoyed by the countryQs five years of economic 
growth, stresses economic continuity with President VazquezQs 
administration while pledging to deepen social support.  The 
FA program confidently projects an economic growth rate of 30 
percent over the duration of their potential 2010-2015 
administration. It also sets out a policy of national debt 
reduction and an investment increase of 30 percent of GDP. 
Tax-wise, a Mujica administration would look for ways to 
ensure that Qthose who have more contribute moreQ, and 
promises to knock two points off VAT.  Tax breaks will also be 
used to incentivize companies to train their staff. 
Additionally, the FA document pledges the creation of 200,000 
new jobs. 
 
¶6.  Despite the public objections to privatization plans 
during LacalleQs 1990-95 administration, his pro-business 
reputation and association with a time of relative prosperity 
provide Lacalle with a firm footing from which to advocate 
economic policy.  However, he has been careful to declare that 
he has pragmatically adjusted his polities to meet the 
realities of Uruguay as it is today.  The most obvious shifts 
are seen in a higher profile for social programs, a focus on 
 
Qde-monopolizationQ of state utilities rather than their 
privatization, and the promise to uphold the current system of 
tripartite wage negotiations between the government, business 
leaders and unions.  Note: Lacalle had an extremely fractious 
relationship with the unions during his term in office. End 
note.  Macro-economically, the Blanco program sets no specific 
targets but instead advocates growth though the maintenance of 
stable prices and equilibrium in the balance of payments. 
Arguably the most eye-catching element of the LacalleQs 
proposals is the slow phasing out and eventual elimination of 
the income tax established by MujicaQs running mate and ex- 
finance minister Danilo Astori in 2007, which remains widely 
reviled amongst the middle class. 
 
Security 
-------- 
 
¶7.  Public security, long a source of mounting concern amongst 
Uruguayans, has flowered into a hot topic for the 2009 
elections.  In broad figures, crime has been on the rise since 
the countryQs return to democracy in 1985, but, according to 
Ministry of the Interior, the increase has been less 
precipitous in recent years, with sexual assaults and thefts 
actually declining since 2005.  Nevertheless, in the mind of 
much of the public, not only is the general trend up but it is 
rising sharply.  Having loudly identified security as the 
Qprincipal problem currently facing the countryQ, LacalleQs 
promise of a Qfirm handQ is clearly visible in his proposal 
for government. The program offers a package of measures that 
include reducing the age to be tried as a juvenile from 18 to 
16; creating a National Juvenile Rehabilitation centre; 
expanding the existing National Guard to create a National 
Republican Guard with national jurisdiction; creating a 
National Prisons Institute; improving rehabilitation 
facilities in the prison system; increasing police wages; 
improving police procedures and instituting a National 
Rehabilitation Centre for drug addicts.  The measures also 
include transferring 200 positions connected to public 
security from the Ministry of Defense to the Ministry of the 
Interior. 
 
¶8.  Meanwhile, Mujica has had the difficult task of balancing 
the FA security record with the need to reassure the 
electorate that the FA is aware that more could be done. 
MujicaQs initial engagement with the theme was bullish, 
declaring that tourists are drawn to Uruguay because the 
streets are safe and that the Blanco PartyQs comments to the 
contrary were an act of QsabotageQ.  Nevertheless, following a 
poll that found that just under half the electorate felt the 
government had done nothing to address public security, the FA 
conceded that improvements had been QmodestQ and went on to 
present a range of compensatory measures as part their 
Electoral Platform. These include: doubling the public 
security budget; increasing the numbers of police officers; 
improving police training; community participation in citizen 
security round tables; deploying the National Guard to combat 
serious crime; and developing a national policy on social 
violence.  Causal factors are addressed with the promise that, 
of the 200,000 new jobs to be created, 40,000 will be for 
young adults between the ages of 18 and 29.  The FA also vows 
to continue the struggle against drugs. 
 
Social Support and Development 
------------------------------ 
 
¶9.  On July 28, Enrique Rubio the director of the Office of 
Budget and Planning (OPP) announced that some 400,000 
Uruguayans had been lifted out of poverty between 2005 and 
2008, an achievement he attributed to the FAQs tax reforms and 
family government benefits.  These seemingly impressive 
statistics combined with the high profile success story of the 
governmentQs QPlan CeibalQ (in which every school-age child 
was presented with a laptop) have strengthened the FAQs image 
as a socially conscious party and make gaining ground in this 
area a challenge for Lacalle.  An early Lacalle promise to 
Qtake a buzzsawQ to public spending did little to aid his new 
socially conscious image, but the Blanco campaign declares 
that a credible program of social support plays a key role in 
their electoral chances. 
 
¶10.  The National Party document promises focused social 
support for families, women, the poor, adults, children and 
adolescents, some of which appears to consist of updating or 
adjusting current programs.  The most notable different is 
LacalleQs proposal to require the planQs beneficiaries to 
participate in public works in exchange for state support. 
Otherwise, the aspirations of both sets of proposals are more 
or less the same.  Both parties aim to reduce poverty: the 
BlancosQ announced a goal of Qzero povertyQ while the FA set a 
 
slightly more modest target of ending poverty for 350,000 
people.  As part of this drive, both parties focus on housing. 
Mujica had already stated that his government would begin the 
construction of homes in at least 15 locations within the 
first 15 days of his presidency.  His proposal for government 
expands on this with the more ample promise of 70,000-80,000 
homes for young families.  The Blancos pledge to replace poor 
quality or unhealthy housing with pre-fabricated homes, but, 
in contrast to the FA, plan to redirect funds to providing 
affordable credit rather than direct construction.  Both 
campaigns offer to improve health care, with Mujica aiming to 
ensure a universal standard of provision and Lacalle proposing 
the creation of National Institute for Trauma and 
Rehabilitation as well as the construction of two new 
hospitals, one of which would be located in the relatively 
impoverished El Cerro district of the city. 
 
¶11.  Both programs make broad assertions about the need to 
improve the quality of basic education and extend support for 
the countryQs youth in particular by creating full-time 
schools. The FA program promises 10,000 courses and some 
25,000 education grants)while the Blanco proposals include 
promises to help find work for those who abandon formal 
education, providing incentives to companies offering 
employment for the young and start a program to support 
teenage mothers.  LacalleQs government plan places a clear 
emphasis on training and commerce centered on information 
technology and proposes the establishment of a polytechnic 
system to support this aim.  He also promises to build 300,000 
schools. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶12.  Because the differences in the two programs are fairly 
subtle in many cases, the electorate appears to be judging the 
candidates on their values and personal qualities.  The voters 
continue to try to sort out who will best be suited to meet 
these challenges.  End comment.