VZCZCXYZ0003
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMU #1031 2922152
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 192152Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4671
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS MANAGUA 001031 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR PRM/PIM AND WHA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PHUM PREF SMIG NU
SUBJECT: CONTINUATION OF TPS FOR NICARAGUA 
 
REF: A. STATE 101826 
     ¶B. MANAGUA 1009 
     ¶C. 08 MANAGUA 1392 
     ¶D. 08 MANAGUA 1329 
     ¶E. 08 MANAGUA 767 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: Per ref A, following is Embassy Managua's 
assessment of Nicaragua's current conditions and ability to 
reabsorb the roughly 4,000 Nicaraguans granted Temporary 
Protective Status (TPS) after Hurricane Mitch in 1998. 
Nicaragua has yet to fully recover from Hurricane Mitch, and 
the country's political, economic, and social circumstances 
do not provide an environment in which the return of 
nationals could be adequately handled.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) In general, Nicaragua has never fully recovered 
from Hurricane Mitch in 1998.  The regions most devastated 
by Mitch, the mountainous north and isolated Atlantic coast, 
continue to be the poorest and least developed in the 
country.  In 2007, the Atlantic coast suffered an additional 
blow from Hurricane Felix; a year later the recovery remains 
minimal (ref D).  Other climatic events have also devastated 
the northern mountainous region and western part of the 
country since 1998 (ref B, E).  These events have contributed 
to an environment in which there are continual disruptions to 
living conditions. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Weak and poorly constructed infrastructure in the 
affected areas continues to be a significant barrier to 
wide-scale recovery.  Many roads are unpaved and become 
impassable with heavy rains and floods.  The Millennium 
Challenge Corporation (MCC) funded road projects in some of 
the more populous areas effected by Hurricane Mitch, but 
rural feeder roads remain in poor conditions.  Moreover, as a 
result of the 2008 electoral fraud (ref C), MCC has partially 
terminated its compact with Nicaragua, further limiting 
resources available for the country's infrastructure.  Most 
rural roads in the northern mountainous region and the 
Atlantic coast have not been properly rehabilitated since 
Hurricane Mitch.  Roads are usually repaired superficially 
during the dry season, but become impassable during the rainy 
season. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Political tension throughout the country also has 
contributed to the disruption in living conditions.  The 
Government of Nicaragua's attempt to consolidate power is the 
root of tension, and was most visible in the 2008 municipal 
electoral fraud.  In the Atlantic coast, an area most 
devastated by Mitch, the political tension has contributed to 
calls for regional independence from local leaders. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The country's increasingly poor economy has slowed 
down reconstruction efforts, inhibiting the Government of 
Nicaragua from reabsorbing additional people.  Nicaragua is 
the second poorest country in the Western Hemisphere. 
Official unemployment was 4.9% in 2007, but 60% of all 
workers earn a living in the informal sector, where 
underemployment is extremely high.  The Central Bank 
forecasts a GDP contraction of 1% in 2009, but independent 
economists believe the economy might contract as much as 
3.5%.  European donors' decision to cut off budget support in 
the wake of fraudulent municipal elections has exacerbated 
fiscal woes caused by a decline in tax revenue as a result of 
the economic slowdown.  In a recent public opinion poll, 59% 
of the population expressed a desire to leave the country. 
Of these, 91% seek better employment or a better economic 
situation. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Given the current political, economic, and social 
circumstances facing Nicaragua, combined with the 
disaster-prone climate/geography, Nicaragua is currently 
unable to reabsorb the 4,000 Nicaraguans currently benefiting 
from TPS.  For this reason, post recommends an extension of 
the current designation of TPS for Nicaraguan nationals. 
CALLAHAN