VZCZCXRO7016
PP RUEHIK
DE RUEHLI #0537/01 2821509
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 091509Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY LISBON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7915
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LISBON 000537 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV SCUL SOCI PO
SUBJECT: PORTUGAL TO HOLD LOCAL ELECTIONS ON OCTOBER 11 
 
REF: LISBON 516 
 
LISBON 00000537  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (U) Summary:  Portugal will hold local elections October 
11 in all 308 municipalities, with the most significant races 
in Lisbon and Porto.  The race in Lisbon will be closely 
contested, with incumbent Socialist (PS) mayor Antonio Costa 
likely to be re-elected over Social Democratic (PSD) rival 
Pedro Santana Lopes.  Social Democrat Rui Rio is favored to 
win in Porto.  Voter turnout may be relatively low, as these 
elections come just two weeks after the September 27 national 
elections (reftel) and four months after Euro-parliament 
elections.  The Social Democrats, who are running in 
coalition with other parties in Lisbon and several other 
municipalities, hope to retain the majority of the mayoral 
posts, while the Socialists seek to win the largest number of 
votes to consolidate their September 27 victory.  Two weeks 
ago PM Socrates led the Socialists to a lackluster victory in 
the national elections, which threw the PSD into disarray. 
The PSD is likely to have a better showing in these local 
elections, retaining its strongholds in the north.  End 
Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) Portugal will hold local elections October 11 for 
mayors and municipal assembly deputies in 308 municipalities 
nationwide.  Voters will also elect local executives and 
assembly members in nearly 5,000 districts.  An estimated 
half a million candidates have registered to run.  Unlike the 
parliamentary elections, where candidates must be affiliated 
with a political party, groups of citizens or independent 
candidates may run for local office. 
 
¶3. (U) The two leading parties have different electoral 
objectives:  the right-of-center Social Democratic Party 
seeks to repeat its 2005 performance by winning the largest 
number of mayoral posts, while the left-of-center Socialists 
seek to win the most votes to consolidate their victory in 
the September 27 national elections.  To increase its chance 
of success and margin of victory, the PSD is running in 
coalition with the Popular Party (CDS/PP) and other smaller 
parties in numerous municipalities.  The Socialists, on the 
other hand, have not formed any alliances.  Regardless of the 
results, both parties will undoubtedly claim victory, but 
much depends on who wins in the capital.  Of the 308 
municipalities, the most significant and closely watched 
races will be in Lisbon and Porto, Portugal's second largest 
city. 
 
CLOSELY CONTESTED RACE IN LISBON 
-------------------------------- 
¶4. (SBU) Lisbon voters have historically cast their votes for 
the left-of-center candidates.  As the Socialist Party won a 
large majority in Lisbon during the September 27 
parliamentary elections, it is likely that incumbent 
Socialist mayor Antonio Costa will be re-elected.  The polls 
show him leading his PSD opponent, 45 to 33 percent. 
Considered effective throughout his career, Costa is a 
quietly competent mayor unlike his PSD opponent.  Costa has 
the support of a large percentage of independent voters; 
however, he lacks charisma and has been criticized by some 
for not doing enough since taking office in 2007. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Costa's primary opponent, Social Democrat Pedro 
Santana Lopes, previously served as prime minister (2004 - 
2005) and mayor of Lisbon (2002 - 2004), but lacks support 
within his own party.  He was appointed prime minister in 
2004 but lost credibility when President Sampaio dissolved 
Parliament and called for new parliamentary elections just 
six months after Santana Lopes took office.  Santana Lopes 
represents the right and center-right in a coalition of the 
PSD with the CDS/PP and two smaller parties.  He is a 
flamboyant and charismatic figure who enjoys the limelight, 
but he lacks gravitas, having never completed any political 
term in office, and has many enemies in Parliament. 
 
SOCIAL DEMOCRATS AHEAD IN PORTO 
------------------------------- 
¶6. (U) In Porto, the Social Democrats have the advantage. 
Polls show PSD incumbent Rui Rio with a 14-point lead over 
his Socialist rival.  Rui Rio, an economist who is running 
for a third term, is generally regarded as effective and 
charismatic.  A centrist, he voted for decriminalization of 
abortion, a referendum initiated by PM Socrates but opposed 
by many in the PSD.  The Socialists have a relatively weak 
candidate in Elisa Ferreira, a current member of the European 
Parliament and former cabinet minister.  Ferreira has spent 
most of her life outside Porto and is seen as having little 
interest vested in the municipality and a limited 
understanding of its realities. 
 
COMMENT 
 
LISBON 00000537  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
------- 
¶7. (SBU) Coming just two weeks after the national 
parliamentary elections, the local elections may suffer from 
voter fatigue and a lower turnout than the 61 percent in the 
September 27 elections.  As in years past, local election 
results may not reflect parliamentary 
election results.  In 2005, when the Socialist Party won an 
absolute majority in the national parliamentary elections, it 
was the Social Democratic Party that won the largest number 
of mayoral posts.  Given that the PSD is again running in 
coalition with the CDS/PP in numerous municipalities, the PSD 
will likely receive fewer votes nationally than the 
Socialists.  It is expected, however, to retain the majority 
of the mayoral posts.  Regardless of which party claims 
overall victory, the results will not reflect any ideological 
shift in voter attitudes since the national elections two 
weeks ago, but merely the reality that voters tend to elect 
to local office candidates they know and trust.  Taken 
together with the recent parliamentary elections, these local 
elections demonstrate that the Social Democrats are weakened 
nationally but retain many local strongholds, while the 
Socialists have national prominence but, outside of Lisbon, 
have significant holes at the local level. 
 
 
For more reporting from Embassy Lisbon and information about Portugal, 
please see our Intelink site: 
 
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/portal:port ugal 
BALLARD