VZCZCXRO9235
OO RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #1198/01 2981553
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 251553Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4621
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001198 
 
NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: POPULAR CONSULTATIONS CRUCIAL, WITH OR WITHOUT ELECTIONS 
 
REF: A) KHARTOUM 1130 B) KHARTOUM 1182 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Leaders of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement 
(SPLM) held a conference from October 15-18 in Kurmuk, Blue Nile 
State, to brain-storm about the form and function of popular 
consultations.  The latter are called for by the Comprehensive Peace 
Agreement (CPA) to "ascertain the views of the people" of Southern 
Kordofan and Blue Nile on the CPA.  Attendees resolved that election 
laws must be amended to assure successful elections, and thereby, 
effective popular consultations, which are crucial and an "inherent" 
right, even without elections.  They also agreed that a law 
governing popular consultations must be enacted by the National 
Legislative Assembly and approved by the Presidency.  Delegates 
discussed governance in Blue Nile and reconfirmed their confidence 
in Governor Malik Agar.  Defining popular consultations is likely to 
be the next contentious item on Sudan's political schedule. End 
Summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
EFFECTIVE POPULAR CONSULTATIONS REQUIRE ELECTIONS 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶2. (SBU) SPLM leaders held a conference from October 15-18 in 
Kurmuk, the southern capital of Blue Nile State.  The conference, 
attended by Emboff, was a brain-storming session about popular 
consultations and included related governance issues.  It was 
attended by leaders from Blue Nile, Southern Kordofan, Darfur, and 
South Sudan, and included civil society leaders and political 
delegates from the National Congress Party (NCP), the People's 
Congress Party, the Democratic Unionist Party, the Umma Party, and 
the Sudanese Communist Party.  Attendees resolved that election and 
security laws must be amended to assure successful elections, and 
thereby, effective popular consultations.  Participants endorsed the 
Juba Declaration of the All-Political Parties Conference (Ref A), 
calling it a model for resolving the current political issues in 
Sudan. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
POPULAR CONSULTATIONS AN "INHERENT" RIGHT 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) In case elections do not occur, participants resolved that 
popular consultation must still be conducted as a "right inherent to 
the people" of Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan.  Participants agreed 
to work to guarantee security and stability in this process. They 
also emphasized the importance of guarantees from the 
Intergovermental Authority on Development (IGAD), and the broader 
international community, that popular consultations will be 
conducted and their results implemented. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
NATIONAL LAW GOVERNING POPULAR CONSULTATIONS NEEDED 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) Attendees resolved that a law governing popular 
consultations must be enacted by the National Legislative Assembly 
and approved by the Presidency.  Members of the NCP have made 
numerous public statements rejecting a national law on popular 
consultations as unnecessary and not in accordance with the CPA (Ref 
B). In a meeting on October 21, Sadiq Mansour (SPLM), Deputy Speaker 
of the Southern Kordofan State Parliament, told Poloff that the NCP 
fears that popular consultations will lead to referenda in Southern 
Kordofan and Blue Nile.  Mansour stated, however, that a national 
law on popular consultations was necessary because only the latter 
could bind the national government.  Mansour said he is hopeful that 
the NCP will understand and accept this argument in coming 
negotiations. 
 
------------------------------------ 
NCP ATTENDS, BUT IN LIMITED CAPACITY 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) The highest NCP representative attending the meeting was Al 
Rabatani, Chairman of the Kurmuk Locality Council. NCP 
representative comments during the discussions were vague and 
non-committal.  They stated that popular consultations are "a right 
provided for in the CPA; they fully support it; and it has to be 
exercised."  The representatives added, however, that they were 
attending on a personal basis and their views, and the resolutions 
of the conference, were not binding on the NCP. 
 
¶6. (SBU) The NCP representatives from the Southern Kordofan 
delegation did not participate, turning back soon after arriving in 
Kurmuk.  Ahmed Haroun (NCP), Governor of Southern Kordofan, and his 
Deputy, Abdel Aziz (SPLM), also did not attend the meeting.  Haroun 
indicated that the issues surrounding popular consultations should 
 
KHARTOUM 00001198  002 OF 002 
 
 
be negotiated in a small, private forum between the NCP and SPLM. 
(Note: According to Sadiq Mansour, the date set for this meeting, at 
which the NCP and SPLM will negotiate the terms of the popular 
consultations, is November 1, and will consist of four members from 
each of the NCP and SPLM.  End Note.) 
 
------------------------------------------ 
SPLM REAFFIRMS CONFIDENCE IN GOVERNOR AGAR 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Malik Agar (SPLM), Governor of Blue Nile State, was 
criticized by some conference attendees for favoring his tribe, the 
Ingessena, for administrative positions in the state.  (Note: 
Emboffs hear this complaint often, but have found no evidence 
thereof.  We note that Agar has directed both state and 
international donor-supported development to areas outside his 
tribal home.  End Note.)  Agar accepted the criticism, and suggested 
that as he has led the SPLM in Blue Nile since 1997, replacing him 
may be overdue.  Conference attendees responded that there was no 
one to replace Agar, and their criticism was only to ensure that he 
listens to everyone.  A number of other SPLM executive office 
holders were also criticized and rated on their achievements, with 
Agar given the highest rating of the group. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Comment:  The CPA mandates popular consultations to 
"ascertain the views of the people" of Southern Kordofan and Blue 
Nile on the CPA, but is silent on what legally-binding effect these 
views might have once ascertained.  This is the crux of the issue. 
The NCP cannot give Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile unlimited power 
to change provisions of the CPA with which they are unhappy, while 
Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile cannot simply submit their views on 
the CPA to the Presidency and rely on the Presidency's goodwill to 
have their issues resolved.  For instance, one can imagine that the 
people of Southern Kordofan would like to receive a greater 
percentage of the revenue accruing from oil produced in their state, 
currently set at two percent, but the national government cannot 
allow Southern Kordofan legislators to unilaterally choose an 
appropriate amount.  Ultimately some mechanism must be agreed by 
which Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan can negotiate with the 
national government on a somewhat equal footing.  Currently no such 
mechanism exists.  Greater federalism may be the solution to Sudan's 
conflicts, but will not be willingly embraced by Khartoum.  End 
Comment. 
 
WHITEHEAD