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O 211727Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2409
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 003386 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL KDEM AF
SUBJECT: MUTED FIRST REACTIONS TO NEWS OF A SECOND ROUND 
 
¶1.  (U)  Summary:  Initial public and official reactions to 
the October 20 announcement of a a run-off election between 
President Hamid Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah are initially 
muted.  Hitherto, widespread opposition cited the insecurity 
and seeming illogic of a runoff; responses now are 
predictably mixed, ranging from supportive to opposed, but 
closest to skeptically resigned.  We have seen no indication 
of vigorous negative public reaction; in fact, the same kinds 
of groups who opposed a runoff with protests in the recent 
past are now promising to come out and vote. End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  A pre-election snapshot in war-torn central Logar 
province captures the mood the day before the announcement, 
when PRT military and civilian officers walked through the 
Pul-e-Alam market.  None of the twenty individuals the 
officers spoke with favored a run-off, regardless of whether 
they had voted on August 20; exasperation was the common 
sentiment.  Comments included: 
 
-- This country has become a political boxing ring.  One 
round was enough. 
 
-- If 10% of the registered voters turn out for a runoff, we 
should all dance for joy. 
 
-- These elections are giving us a headache.  It's taking too 
long to decide a run off.  Participation will be much lower, 
but I will take part. 
 
-- The money for a second round would better be spent on the 
people. 
 
-- Karzai had 54% of the vote until the international 
community said it needed a better partner and remarkably his 
vote count has dropped to 47%.  See how bad this looks? 
 
-- I have to risk my life to vote AGAIN? 
 
¶3.  (U)  After the October 20 announcement, BBC's Pashto 
Service interviewed four or five local people from Kabul 
city.  Most said they found the second round unacceptable and 
did not believe a run-off to be in the best interest of 
Afghanistan.  Dari Radio Killid also interviewed a small 
number of Kabulites.  All said they would definitely vote in 
the next round, even if it meant risk to their personal 
safety.  (Note: Although this may not sound like much of 
sample, it is worth keeping in mind that radio is still the 
primary news medium in Afghanistan and influences public 
perception more broadly than either newspapers or TV.) 
 
¶4.  (U)  Editorials in Kabul dailies have not been overly 
enthusiastic about the runoff.  Three of five - Cheragh 
(independent), Hewad (state-run), Hasht-e-Sobh (independent), 
Weesa (privately-owned), and Daily Afghanistan (independent) 
- accused 'foreign control' of being at work.  However, even 
Weesa said that although "our people have been betrayed" 
Afghans should turn out in record numbers to vote.  Weesa 
also reported that people in the southern provinces of 
Helmand, Uruzgan, Zabul, Kandahar, Paktiya, and Ghazni are 
requesting the Independent Election Commission (IEC) issue 
new voting cards because the Taliban had either intimidated 
them into throwing them away or had confiscated them. 
 
¶5.  (U)  The independent Daily Afghanistan focused on the 
logistical challenges inherent in this second round, while 
independent Hasht-e-Sobh commended President Karzai for his 
decision and urged that the election be held as transparently 
as possible. State-run daily Hewad played the Pashtun card, 
missing the point that fraudulent votes had no one behind 
them, saying, "Foreigners demonstrated their power in these 
elections.  But, we wish they had demonstrated this power in 
the fight against terrorism rather than against the votes of 
people.  What is very surprising is that nearly one million 
of the 1,300,000 votes nullified were cast in south, meaning 
these votes were cast by Pashtuns.  This is an insult to the 
people of the south." 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  A local Afghan driver told us what we have heard 
many times, namely that the majority of poor Afghans do not 
care who wins this election; they just want an end to it. 
Afghan researchers at a respected civil organization, the 
Afghan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU), told us they 
agreed with some of the criticism in the press and on 
television concerning "foreign interference" in the election. 
 They voiced concerns about a "unity" government, commenting 
that any sharing of power will devolve into a power grab that 
would exacerbate ethnic tensions and result in more, not 
less, corruption and abuse of government.  According to these 
researchers, even people disenchanted with Karzai do not 
think Abdullah will reach across ethnic lines as Karzai has 
done.  Regarding turnout, they believe it will be harder to 
get people to vote this time around, but think people will 
 
KABUL 00003386  002 OF 002 
 
 
ultimately vote.  When queried why reaction to the 
announcement seems so muted, the researchers echoed the Kabul 
driver:  The people are resigned; they want it to be over; 
and Afghans still look to their leaders to tell them how to 
react. Left to themselves, the people will not demonstrate in 
the streets. 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  In Abdullah Abdullah's October 21 press 
conference, he thanked Karzai for accepting the results and 
stressed the need to guarantee the transparency and security 
of the run-off election.  He alluded to changes he will 
propose to the IEC.  We later learned that Abdullah might ask 
the international community to replace IEC members Ludin and 
Najafi with two 'impartial' people since they are widely seen 
as pro-Karzai. 
 
¶8.  (U)  The Free and Fair Elections Foundation of 
Afghanistan (FEFA), the leading Afghan civil society 
elections observer group, issued a statement welcoming the 
assessment of the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC), 
supporting the run-off, and candidates' acceptance of that, 
and expressing confidence that the fraud investigation and 
resulting run-off will ultimately help restore people's trust 
in the process and their government. 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  Some official Pashtun reaction has been 
predictably negative, but hopeful signs suggest that the 
emotional intensity surrounding these events may dissipate 
and officials will turn to getting out the vote.  Shukria 
Barakzai, an outspoken Pashtun MP from Kandahar told Radio 
Azadi that a run-off is unfair, unjust, and had been decided 
as a result of political pressure.  Barakzai was one of 40 
mostly Pashtun MP's who urged President Karzai as late as the 
morning of October 20 not to accept a second round.  By 
October 21, while still blaming the international community 
for pushing a second round despite Karzai's obvious 
first-round win, Barakzai was telling us in private that 
Karzai might get even more votes in the run-off as Pashtuns 
would probably rally round him out of sympathy and 
solidarity. 
 
¶10.  (U)  According to Pajhwok Afghan News Agency Pashtun 
tribal elders in Kandahar said they will support Karzai and 
would respect the decision of the IEC.  Ironically, we are 
likely to see the same groups that recently were 
demonstrating against a second round get instructed to bring 
out the vote. 
EIKENBERRY