VZCZCXRO9861
RR RUEHDBU RUEHPW RUEHSL
DE RUEHBUL #3262/01 2871314
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 141314Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2164
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 2027
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 3862
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 003262 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS AF
SUBJECT: INTERIOR MINISTRY ORGANIZES FOR POLICE GROWTH 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  SUMMARY:  On October 1 Interior Minister Hanif 
Atmar launched a series of working groups to plan for Afghan 
National Police (ANP) growth, and told International Police 
Coordination Board (IPCB) reps that: 
 
-- Police growth and reform are his post-election priorities; 
 
--The Ministry is not committed in advance to a ceiling of 
160,000 police or any other figure  ) it is simply using the 
prospect of growth to 160,000 by end 2013 as a planning 
guide; (NOTE: This figure derives from Combined Security 
Transition Command Afghanistan's (CSTC-A) planning target.) 
 
-- He envisions a five-pillar police structure with different 
types of police for different functions; 
 
-- Afghanistan,s ability to pay for its police force depends 
on domestic revenue growth, but more and better police can 
help local authorities to improve revenue collection. 
 
The Ministry,s new working groups will plan the mechanics of 
growth beyond the statutory ceiling of 96,800 police, 
handling critical issues such as recruitment, attrition, 
training, and logistics that can limit the extent and slow 
the pace of growth.  Combined Security Transition 
Command-Afghanistan (CSTC-A) and the European Union Police 
Mission (EUPOL) will support the working groups with 
technical advice.  The Ministry of the Interior (MOI) also 
invites working-level participation from donor embassies. The 
Law and Order Trust Fund for Afghanistan,s (LOTFA) staff 
will lead a separate financial working group with Ministry of 
Finance and MOI participation to examine the costs of ANP 
growth to the Afghan Government. END SUMMARY. 
 
PLANNING FOR GROWTH BEYOND 96,800 POLICE 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Minister Atmar told donor representatives that his 
post-election goal is to accelerate the growth of the police 
from their current authorized strength of 96,800, while 
&aggressively8 reforming his force and Ministry.  In 
response to European Community and Dutch concerns, Atmar 
denied that he was committed in advance to any particular 
growth figure (such as 160,000).  MOI needed to choose a 
number for planning purposes, but Atmar suggested it could as 
easily be 175,000.  The MOI working groups will premise their 
planning on a goal of growing to 160,000 police by the end of 
2013, reflecting CSTC-A,s planning target. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The ANP growth working groups are responsible for 
planning for the number and pace of police growth.   They 
will plan for the distribution of new forces across different 
police categories (uniformed police, border police, civil 
order police, specialized police), and determine the tasks of 
each force. They will also determine training, personnel, 
logistics and facilities needs for growth, and, propose 
solutions to the problems of recruitment and retention that 
retard force growth.  The working group structure consists 
of:  an Executive Steering Group chaired by Interior Minister 
Hanif Atmar, which includes the Deputy Ministers for 
Security, and Strategy and Policy, and the heads of CSTC-A 
and EUPOL; and, an Executive Working Group (EWG) led by First 
Deputy Minister for Security Monir Mangal, which consists of 
MOI Department heads, CSTC-A staff section representatives 
and donor embassy representatives. The EWG will coordinate 
the work of four working groups and twelve sub-working 
groups. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Led by MOI department heads, the four working 
groups cover broad areas:  Strategy and Policy; Security; 
Counter Narcotics; and  Administration and Support.  The 
appropriate CSTC-A staff sections, EUPOL  and the IPCB,s 
Senior Police Advisory Group will support each working group 
and sub-working group with planning advice and staff. 
Embassy Kabul,s Pol-Mil and INL-Narcotics Affairs Sections 
will attend meetings of the Executive Working Group, and the 
working groups on Strategy and Policy, and Counter Narcotics. 
  An INL Dyncorps contract police mentor with expertise in 
training will attend the sub-working group on training and 
education. 
 
(AND FIGURING OUT HOW TO PAY FOR IT 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The Law and Order Trust Fund for Afghanistan 
(LOTFA) covers $258 million and CSTC-A $115 million of MOI,s 
$418 million annual budget, while the Afghan treasury picks 
up the tab for $45 million in administrative and support 
 
KABUL 00003262  002 OF 002 
 
 
staff costs.  (NOTE: Japan, LOTFA's largest donor this year, 
accounts for $124.8 million of the fund's budget.  Japan has 
donated a total of $144.6 million since 2006, making it the 
third largest donor overall, after the US and European 
Commission.)  In March, the MOI is scheduled to take over 
payment of the $71.8 million annual food allowance for 82,000 
ANP from LOTFA.  Afghanistan spends 26% of its annual budget 
on the security sector, a number fixed by the Afghanistan 
Compact.  Consequently, Police growth will require revenue 
growth, even if donors pay most costs.  Minister Atmar argued 
that effective police support for local authorities could 
enhance revenue collection ) police growth would yield 
revenue growth.  (NOTE:  The Minister did not elaborate on 
this claim, and he did not suggest that any "revenue growth" 
resulting from improved security would fully cover increased 
costs.)  Atmar supported the idea that LOTFA  would lead a 
separate working group to plan for the financial implications 
of ANP growth.  That group will bring MOI and Ministry of 
Finance together with police donors for joint financial 
planning. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) COMMENT:  Minister Atmar is eager to grow the ANP 
as fast as possible, but his working groups will have to 
contend with the hard realities -- competition for recruits 
from a growing army and well-paid private security companies; 
annual attrition of 25%; finite training capacity; and 
funding -- that will dictate the pace of police growth.  The 
ANP growth working groups will also test the planning 
capacity of the MOI,s four-month old Department of Strategy 
and Policy.  This is its first major planning exercise, and 
it will likely require significant advice and support from 
CSTC-A and EUPOL to keep the planning up to speed with the 
security requirements necessitating ANP growth. END COMMENT. 
EIKENBERRY