VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSB #0822/01 2880820
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 150820Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5017
INFO RUEHSA/AMEMBASSY PRETORIA 5751

UNCLAS HARARE 000822 
 
AFR/SA FOR LDOBBINS, JHARMON 
OFDA/W for KLUU, ACONVERY, LMTHOMAS, TDENYSENKO 
FFP/W for JBORNS, ASINK, LPETERSEN 
PRETORIA for HHALE, PDISKIN, SMCNIVEN 
 
SIPDIS 
AIDAC 
 
E.O.  12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID EAGR PREL PHUM ZI
SUBJECT:  FY10 RENEWAL OF DISASTER DECLARATION IN ZIMBABWE FOR 
COMPLEX EMERGENCY 
 
REF:  2008 HARARE 904 
 
THIS IS AN ACTION CABLE.  See paras 3 and 9 below. 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
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¶1.  Recent public opinion polling reveals that many Zimbabweans feel 
more positive about the future than they have during recent years. 
They credit the transitional government and, more specifically, 
Morgan Tsvangirai and the MDC for the economic improvements they 
have seen.  But while the humanitarian situation in Zimbabwe has 
improved compared to a year ago, millions of Zimbabweans continue to 
live a precarious existence.  They are threatened by the possibility 
of renewed state sponsored political violence, the risk of another 
cholera epidemic, and tenuous food security.  Farm invasions during 
the past eight months have displaced two thousand workers, according 
to the General Agricultural and Plantation Workers Union of Zimbabwe 
(GAPWUZ).  The government's thin revenues cannot support basic needs 
for health care, water, sanitation and hygiene, education, and other 
necessities.  All this means that the current complex humanitarian 
crisis will be with Zimbabwe during the next year. 
 
¶3.  This cable requests renewal of the disaster declaration for this 
complex emergency for FY10. Continued humanitarian assistance from 
USAID's Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) will be 
required in FY10 to meet critical humanitarian needs of both urban 
and rural populations.  In FY09, USAID/OFDA provided more than USD 
30 million in humanitarian assistance to Zimbabwe.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
------------------------------ 
Humanitarian Crisis Background 
------------------------------ 
 
¶3.  Conditions for many Zimbabweans have improved in FY 2009 thanks 
in large part to the decision to scrap the Zimbabwe dollar. Foreign 
currencies now circulate instead, making day-to-day survival less 
difficult for many Zimbabweans than it was a year ago.  The swearing 
in of a transitional government in February has also enhanced 
economic, social, and political stability.  A recent nationwide 
public opinion poll conducted by the Mass Public Opinion Institute 
reveals a marked improvement in  attitudes toward economic prospects 
for the future compared to just one year ago.  Such gains, and the 
continued existence of the transitional government itself, however, 
are tenuous. Even with these improvements, a large number of 
Zimbabweans face food insecurity and await free distribution of 
inputs for agriculture because they are too poor to buy food and 
farming inputs. 
 
 
¶4.  They also face the threat of renewed state-sponsored organized 
violence and torture as the country prepares for the rollout of a 
constitution making process, a referendum on a constitution, and 
national and local elections -- all possibly within the next 18 
months.  More than a year after the June 2008 elections, thousands 
of Zimbabweans who were victims of state-sponsored violence were 
still seeking medical, legal, and other humanitarian assistance. 
More than 8,000 persons were treated by one medical service provider 
alone, the USAID-funded Counseling Services Unit, during the past 
year. Many in the human rights and pro-democracy communities fear 
that the uneasy calm prevailing over most of the country could 
explode in renewed violence during the coming year, creating new 
waves of injured and displaced populations. 
 
¶5.  GAPWUZ estimates that at least 2,000 people have been displaced 
by farm invasions since February.  This number could grow 
significantly over the coming year. Cholera took the lives of more 
Qsignificantly over the coming year. Cholera took the lives of more 
than 4,000 persons last year and although programming responses by 
USAID, the UN and other donors have reduced the possibility of an 
outbreak of this magnitude, cholera has reemerged.  At the October 
combined Health and Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) Cluster 
meeting on cholera, the Ministry of Health and the World Health 
Organization (WHO) reported 7 confirmed cases out of 33 suspected 
cases of cholera since September. 
 
¶6.  A FEWSNET special report dated September 30 states that, thanks 
to the liberalization of markets and the collapse of the Grain 
Marketing Board, private traders are able to import food and other 
items and sell them at stable market prices.  The 80 percent of 
rural households and 60 percent of urban households who get about 80 
percent of their annual food requirements from their own production 
have benefitted from good harvests, increasing their access to food 
compared to the same time last year.  FEWSNET also notes that 
"Zimbabwe's still depressed economy continues to limit employment 
 
opportunities, and even for those who are employed, low wages 
constrict their purchasing power for food and other basic 
commodities and services." 
 
¶7.  The FEWSNET special report concludes that "the new macroeconomic 
environment in Zimbabwe has not only resulted in greater 
availability of cheaper food, but has also created a problem of 
accessibility for the poor households. Supplies of both food and 
non-foodstuff in urban areas remain favorable with improved 
availability since January and this is expected to continue through 
December 2009, given the extended imports regulations...as Zimbabwe 
moves into the hunger period (October to February), the proportion 
of food insecure households will be significant despite the good 
harvest and economic recovery."  A joint WFP/FAO crop assessment 
estimated that 2.8 million Zimbabweans will be in need of monthly 
food rations during the 2009/2010 lean season, but the actual 
requirement may be less.  The actual outcome will depend on the 
political situation, the evolving economy and market conditions. 
 
----------------------------------- 
USG Humanitarian Assistance in FY09 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  The USG provided a total of $201,452,250 in humanitarian 
assistance to Zimbabwe in FY 2009.  This included $30.9 million from 
OFDA, of which $7.3m was for emergency relief supplies and WASH 
activities of nine partners in areas affected by cholera; the 
remaining $23.6m from OFDA went to fourteen partners for agriculture 
and food security inputs, WASH, risk reduction and humanitarian 
coordination, emergency relief supplies, information management, and 
protection.  $166.6 million from FFP went to two partners in 
emergency food assistance and $3.9 million from State/PRM to three 
partners for refugee/migrant assistance and humanitarian support. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
Renewal of Disaster Declaration for FY10 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  Improvement on the political and economic fronts 
notwithstanding, it is clear that the complex humanitarian crisis 
continues.  Post is particularly concerned about: the continued farm 
invasions and the growing number of displaced farm workers; the 
potential for a new round of state-sponsored organized violence and 
torture, as the country moves towards a constitutional referendum 
and elections; and the resurgence of cholera.  Zimbabwe continues to 
have emergent needs in all humanitarian sectors including food 
insecurity, sustainable livelihoods, WASH, protection, and access to 
adequate healthcare.   Therefore, Post hereby requests renewal of 
the disaster declaration for FY09 (Ref).  Post will continue to work 
closely with the regional offices of USAID/FFP and USAID/OFDA to 
monitor the situation and determine what types of additional 
humanitarian assistance may be required to save lives, alleviate 
suffering, and reduce the economic impact of this complex disaster. 
 
PETTERSON