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RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 2028

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CANBERRA 000934 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR PRM AND SA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SMIG PREF ELAB ECON AS
SUBJECT: POLITICAL STORM OVER ASYLUM SEEKERS 
 
REF: A. A. CANBERRA 255 
     ¶B. B. CANBERRA 807 
 
CANBERRA 00000934  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  The continued surge in asylum seekers 
entering Australia by boat is a growing political challenge 
for Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.  The immigration detention 
center on Christmas Island is approaching capacity, and PM 
Rudd has discussed the issue with his Indonesian counterpart. 
 The Opposition maintains the government's softening of 
immigration laws is encouraging people smugglers, while 
refugee advocates are worried that Rudd's tough rhetoric on 
people smugglers is demonizing asylum seekers. The Labor 
party - which was burnt by this issue at the 2001 election - 
is fearful of being viewed as "soft" on border security. 
Rudd's former foreign adviser confided to us that this issue 
is politically dangerous for Rudd, and that his tough 
rhetoric is likely to backfire.  End Summary 
 
Background 
---------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Over the last year, there has been a significant 
surge in the number of asylum seekers seeking to enter 
Australia by boat. This coincided with changes to immigration 
laws including: 
 
- the abolition of temporary protection visas (TPVs) for 
unauthorized arrivals determined to be refugees. Refugees 
holding TPVs could be sent home when their visas expired; 
 
- after health and security checks, only holding unauthorized 
arrivals in detention as a last resort; 
 
- the abolition of the "Pacific Solution" which sent 
unauthorized arrivals to Nauru and Manus Island for 
processing.  The Opposition claims this has given the green 
light to people smugglers, while the government points to 
"push factors" such as instability in Sri Lanka, Iraq, 
Afghanistan and Pakistan. 
 
According to the government, organized crime is responsible 
for the "vast majority" of arrivals.  In 2001, an election 
year, the Howard government ruthlessly exploited the issue of 
border protection by toughening laws and exploiting divisions 
in the Labor party. During the campaign, Howard famously 
remarked, "We will decide who comes to this country and the 
circumstances in which they come."  Subsequently, the Labor 
party wants to be seen as "tough" on illegal immigration. 
 
Recent Front Page News 
---------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) The issue once again hit the front pages when it was 
revealed October 13 that Prime Minister Rudd called 
Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono shortly before 
the Indonesia navy intercepted a boat carrying Sri Lankan 
asylum seekers, on October 11.  The government has boosted 
capacity on the Christmas Island detention center where 
unauthorized arrivals are processed.  Prime Minister is 
defending his contact with President Yudhoyono, making "no 
apology" for his "hardline" stance on illegal immigration. 
He is describing people smugglers as a "scourge" and the 
"vilest form of people on the plant."  Refugee advocates are 
warning that Rudd's rhetoric may promote the demonization of 
asylum seekers.  The Opposition is considering supporting the 
reinstatement of temporary protection visas.  A major poll 
released this week shows 76 percent of Australians are 
"somewhat concerned" or "very concerned" about unauthorized 
asylum seekers coming to Australia by boat. 
 
Immigrations Minister's Office Unfazed 
-------------------------------------- 
Q 
¶4.  (SBU) An adviser to Immigration Minister Chris Evans told 
us there was "no panic" in the government and that Labor MPs 
are united on the issue.  Notwithstanding the intense media 
coverage on the latest arrivals, she said there had not been 
a significant increase in the "paper flow" going through 
Evan's office.  She emphasized that cooperation between 
Australia and Indonesia on people smuggling is not a new 
development, and that the two countries are working well 
 
CANBERRA 00000934  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
together.  Evans often emphasized the human aspects of the 
ALP's immigration law changes.  However, the adviser did not 
sense Rudd had overridden Evans on the issue.  She 
anticipated the Opposition would vigorously pursue the 
Minister during Senate hearings next week. 
 
Views of Former Rudd Adviser 
---------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Rudd's former foreign policy/national security 
adviser in Opposition, Peter Khalil (PROTECT) confided to us 
that Labor party MPs were very anxious about the asylum 
seeker issue due to the events of 2001.  In Opposition, he 
advised Rudd to attack the amount of money spent on the 
Pacific Solution, but this was vetoed by senior party 
figures.  Khalil predicted Rudd will "get hit" by the public 
on this issue because his actions would not be commensurate 
with his tough rhetoric; he contended internal politics made 
it virtually impossible for Rudd to significantly strengthen 
border protection laws.  A better approach, he suggested, was 
for Rudd to use the power of government to calmly and 
rationally put the issue in perspective.  He pointed out that 
there were around 60,000 cases of visa over-stayers per year, 
while only 1000 asylum seekers have entered Australian waters 
by boat so far in 2009. 
 
Not as potent an issue 
---------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Comment:  In terms of overall migration, the surge 
in asylum seekers is a drop in the ocean.  But Rudd is not 
mentioning this, or lauding his government's more humane 
approach to asylum seekers.  Given his dominance in the 
polls, some on the Left may be disappointed Rudd has not 
tried to create a new paradigm of debate on this issue. 
Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull, at heart a social 
liberal, probably feels uncomfortable pursuing this issue. 
However, he is desperate to reach out to conservatives in his 
party, and find an issue which he can appeal to "working 
families".  The Labor party is unlikely to be as burnt by 
this issue as it was in 2001.  Firstly, being the party in 
government gives Labor more creditability in national 
security debates.  Secondly, the Howard government 
immigration policy was scandalized by high profile cases of 
wrongful detention.  And thirdly, the threat of terrorism - 
which the Howard government linked with border protection - 
has declined in importance as a political issue.  End Comment 
 
CLUNE