VZCZCXYZ0005
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBO #3269/01 3002300
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 272300Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0534
INFO RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 0126
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0456
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 0482
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO
RUEHZP/AMEMBASSY PANAMA

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 003269 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/10/27 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KJUS PHUM CO EC VE
SUBJECT: JUAN MANUEL SANTOS DISCUSSES PRESIDENTIAL PROSPECTS WITH 
AMBASSADOR 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: William R. Brownfield, Ambassa...


id: 231676
date: 10/27/2009 23:00
refid: 09BOGOTA3269
origin: Embassy Bogota
classification: CONFIDENTIAL
destination: 
header:
VZCZCXYZ0005
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBO #3269/01 3002300
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 272300Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0534
INFO RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 0126
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0456
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 0482
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO
RUEHZP/AMEMBASSY PANAMA


----------------- header ends ----------------

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 003269 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/10/27 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KJUS PHUM CO EC VE
SUBJECT: JUAN MANUEL SANTOS DISCUSSES PRESIDENTIAL PROSPECTS WITH 
AMBASSADOR 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: William R. Brownfield, Ambassador; REASON: 1.4(B), (D) 
 
Summary 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶1. (C) Former Minister of Defense and pre-candidate for President 
Juan Manuel Santos told Ambassador October 23 he believes President 
Alvaro Uribe is leaning toward reelection but may fail to fulfill 
the legal and electoral steps to achieve it.  While promoting the 
third term for Uribe, Santos is positioning himself as Uribe's 
successor if necessary.  He thought his chances good against the 
remaining field of candidates, though much depends on what 
alliances are struck among them.  Regarding the U.S.-Colombia 
relationship, Santos said his country needed the United States to 
stand up against others in South America with a contrary political 
outlook.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
Uribe's "Crucible of the Soul" 
 
------------------------------ 
 
 
 
¶2. (C) At a lunch hosted by Ambassador, former Minister of Defense 
Santos told the Ambassador that he remains dedicated to promoting 
President Uribe's third term prospects but will gladly step in as 
the U Party's presumptive candidate if those efforts are not 
successful.  Santos said he believed Uribe had been tending toward 
not running for reelection last May when Uribe gave him the 
go-ahead to resign from the Ministry of Defense so that Santos 
could run for President.  At that time, Santos said he thought 
Uribe's chances of changing the Constitution were good. 
 
 
 
¶3. (C) That perception was changed, Santos said, by the illegal 
wiretap scandal at the Administrative Department of Security (DAS) 
and intimations by the International Criminal Court that it may 
entertain cases from Colombia when the GOC's reservation to the 
Treaty of Rome expires in November.  Santos perceived that Uribe 
viewed these events as potential setbacks to his Democratic 
Security Policy and, as a result, was now more desirous of a third 
term.  However, Santos believed that time was too short to carry 
out the steps remaining to achieve reelection.  He even doubted 
that Uribe could mobilize the 7.2 million votes necessary for the 
referendum to be valid. 
 
 
 
Candidate Santos 
 
---------------- 
 
 
 
¶4. (C) If Uribe steps aside, Santos was certain he could win the 
presidency in two rounds, though much depended on how the other 
candidates might align before and after the first round.  He 
thought it unlikely that Conservative Party (PC) hopeful Noemi 
Sanin would join his campaign given their poor relationship.  The 
other PC pre-candidate, Andres Felipe Arias, is embroiled in a 
scandal over agricultural subsidies; Santos thought the young 
politician would be patient and wait for a future opportunity to 
make his run.  Santos detailed the Left's dilemma:  the Liberal 
Party (LP) can ally with fellow anti-reelection parties Democratic 
Alternative Pole (PDA) or Radical Change (CR), but not both given 
their contrary political leanings.  Santos discounted independent 
candidate Sergio Fajardo altogether, saying that his campaign had 
stagnated.  While the May 2010 elections were "an eternity" away in 
political terms, Santos imagined a scenario where he and Sanin 
finish in the top two, making the final round a contest against 
right-leaning candidates. 
 
 
 
Colombia Regional Relations 
 
--------------------------- 
 
 
¶5. (C) Santos said he was disappointed at the Foreign Ministry's 
handling of the rapprochement with Ecuador.  The fact that a judge 
in Ecuador was seeking his extradition, along with Chief of Defense 
Freddy Padilla and Director of the Colombian National Police Oscar 
Naranjo, for the March 2008 attack on Raul Reyes' Revolutionary 
Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) camp in Ecuador was a problem for 
the Colombian State, he said.  Santos said the Foreign Ministry was 
too focused on restoring relations with Ecuador and was not doing 
enough to defend the high-ranking Colombian officials involved in 
the operation. 
 
 
 
¶6. (C) He similarly criticized the Foreign Ministry for not doing 
more to isolate Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez internationally. 
He said the U.S.-Colombia Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA), 
which he initiated as Minister of Defense, was a strategic advance 
for Colombia to deter the threat from Venezuela. 
BROWNFIELD 

=======================CABLE ENDS============================