VZCZCXRO6626
RR RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHLZ
DE RUEHRL #1270/01 2821208
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 091208Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY BERLIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5449
INFO RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE
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RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0323
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0840
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME 2357
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RHMFIUU/HQ USAFE RAMSTEIN AB GE
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE//J5 DIRECTORATE (MC)//
RHMFISS/CDRUSAREUR HEIDELBERG GE
RUKAAKC/UDITDUSAREUR HEIDELBERG GE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 BERLIN 001270 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, EUR/PAPD, EUR/PPA, EUR/CE, INR/EUC, INR/P, 
SECDEF FOR USDP/ISA/DSAA, DIA FOR DC-4A 
 
VIENNA FOR CSBM, CSCE, PAA 
 
"PERISHABLE INFORMATION -- DO NOT SERVICE" 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.0. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO US AF IT UK ECON
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: OBAMA-NOBEL, AFGHANISTAN, ITALY, UK, U.S.; 
 
Berlin 
 
¶1.   Lead Stories Summary 
¶2.   (U.S.-Norway)   President Obama Awarded Nobel Peace Prize 
¶3.   (Afghanistan)   Future U.S. Strategy 
¶4.   (Italy)   Implications of Court Ruling on Berlusconi 
¶5.   (UK)   Tory Party Conference 
¶6.   (U.S.)   Economic Development 
 
¶1.   Lead Stories Summary 
 
Print media have only one story this morning: the awarding of the 
Nobel literature prize to German novelist Herta Mller.  Editorials 
 
focused on Italy's Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi losing his 
immunity, and on Herta Mller.  ZDF-TV's early evening newscast 
heute 
and ARD-TV's early evening newscast Tagesschau also opened with 
reports on Mller. 
 
¶2.   (U.S.-Norway)   President Obama Awarded Nobel Peace Prize 
 
Commercial TV station n-tv (10/09) noted:  "Sensation in Oslo. 
Obama 
gets the Nobel Prize at a time when he is faced with many 
challenges... 
So is this a prize thought to be an incentive to do more?  ...  This 
is 
certainly coming as a surprise to the White House...  Honoring a 
president who has still three or maybe seven years to go is 
certainly 
daring.  This continues the trend of honoring other politicians such 
 
as Arafat, where you could have had serious doubts later that the 
honoring was justified.  However, Obama cannot be equated with such 
 
politicians because he has shown during his election campaign and in 
 
the first months of his presidency that he is serious about 
dialogue, 
for instance by opening direct talks with Iran." 
 
A commentator on N24-TV (10/09) said: "This is not the first time 
that 
the committee in Oslo has sent a signal by awarding the prize to a 
person who is seen as a great hope so early in his political career. 
 
When Willy Brandt got the prize in 1971 he had only been chancellor 
 
for two years and his rapprochement policy towards the East was far 
 
from complete.  He was able to make use of the prize to counter the 
 
domestic resistance to his policy.  This is probably the intention 
of 
the Nobel Prize committee:  While President Obama is too new to 
office 
for the committee to honor his policy, it hopes to support him for 
what is still to come....  This is an investment in a man the world 
is 
expecting to do a lot....  This is a political signal and he will 
make 
use of it." 
 
Spiegel Online (10/09) reported: "Sensational decision:  Barack 
Obama 
gets the Nobel Peace Prize.  The committee in Oslo honored the U.S. 
 
President for his extraordinary efforts to strengthen diplomacy and 
 
BERLIN 00001270  002 OF 006 
 
 
 
cooperation between people.  Only very few expected this 
decision.... 
The committee announced that Obama's vision for a world free of 
nuclear weapons played a special role in the decision-making." 
 
ZDF-TV's Mittagsmagazin (10/09) reported: "While some think he has 
not 
done anything yet, the rest of the world believes he has already 
achieved a great deal.  Unlike his predecessor, he has reached out 
to 
the world, e.g. the Prague speech, the Cairo speech.  These are all 
 
very important symbols....  This will certainly strengthen him." 
 
¶3.   (Afghanistan)   Future U.S. Strategy 
 
Spiegel Online (10/09) headlined "U.S. examines cooperation with the 
 
Taliban," and added: "President Obama's government is possibly about 
 
to change its policy on Afghanistan. Secretary Clinton is 
considering 
cooperating with the Taliban.  This could mean that the military 
commanders' call to deploy more troops to Afghanistan will not be 
realized." 
 
Under the headline "U.S. army lacks resources for mission in 
Afghanistan," Handelsblatt (10/09) reported that "President Obama 
might decide the new U.S. strategy on Afghanistan today....  Obama's 
 
decision-making is not just influenced by strategic considerations. 
 
If the President sends numerous additional forces to Afghanistan, it 
 
would be a great challenge for the U.S. army...   With some 550,000 
 
soldiers, the U.S. army is only a third of the size it used to be 
during the Vietnam War...  The sluggish increase in the number of 
troops 
has to do with the fact that former Secretary Rumsfeld pursued a 
plan 
limiting the number of military recruitments in order to cut down on 
 
costs. Only under current Secretary Gates, was recruitment 
accelerated....  The U.S. would therefore have to rely all the more 
on 
support from its allies.  Canadian Defense Minister Mackay is 
expecting Gates to call on European allies during the NATO defense 
ministerial in Bratislava in two weeks to deploy additional 
troops.... 
There is uneasiness among European allies because they feel poorly 
informed by the United States.  A NATO diplomat said the U.S. has so 
 
far understood Afghanistan to be an American war.  It is therefore 
not 
astonishing the Europeans are waiting for Obama's decision." 
 
In a lengthy analytic piece under the headline "contradictions of a 
 
mission," Frankfurter Allgemeine (10/09) wrote: "Obama's hesitation 
to 
respond to the call for more troops in Afghanistan and to take more 
 
risks corresponds with the hesitation of the NATO allies....  In his 
 
report to Washington, General McChrystal only summed up what most 
ISAF 
commanders currently think and stand by.  However, he has not 
 
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discussed and resolved the contradiction of, on the one hand, the 
need 
for an active and preemptive fight against insurgents and, on the 
other hand, for the protection of civilians...  According to German 
 
officials, McChrystal is also under massive political pressure from 
a 
political advisor representing the government in Washington who 
accompanies him to meetings.  The commander in chief knows that time 
 
is getting short." 
 
¶4.   (Italy)   Implications of Court Ruling on Berlusconi 
 
All papers (10/09) reported of Italy's Prime Minister Berlusconi's 
reaction to the decision of the Constitutional Court, which 
overturned 
a law that granted him immunity from prosecution.  Sueddeutsche 
headlined: "Left-Wing Conspiracy," and reported that "Minister 
President Berlusconi again assailed President Napolitano and the 
Constitutional Court.  The opposition forces were outraged, as were 
 
some government members, as they called upon Berlusconi to show 
moderation."  Die Welt wrote under the headline: "Berlusconi Wants 
to 
Defend Himself," and reported: "The Berlusconi era is not yet over. 
 
Even after the Constitutional Court suspended his immunity, it is 
not 
yet clear the escape artist will not succeed in having the two 
chambers of Italy's parliament adopt a 'waterproof' immunity bill 
that 
stands above all constitutional concerns."  die  tageszeitung 
headlined: "A Bad Loser," and wrote that, with his reaction, 
"Berlusconi is now presenting the strategy of his right-wing 
coalition:  in substance, he is refusing to accept the ruling of the 
 
Constitutional court and is not even shying away from a 
constitutional 
conflict with the president.  The Italian prime minister is 
convinced 
that the approval of the voters...will not suffer even after this 
ruling, because he has worked for more than 15 years now in 
explaining 
to the public that he has become a victim of political justice." 
 
Sueddeutsche Zeitung (10/09) judged: "For how long does Silvio 
Berlusconi want to rule?  For how long will he be allowed to abuse 
the 
president, the justices at the Constitutional Court, and his 
political 
enemies?  For how long will the Italians allow him to abuse their 
patience?  For more than 15 years, this man, who has lost all his 
inhibitions, has dominated his people, irrespective of whether he 
was 
the opposition leader or government head.  During this period, Italy 
 
has become worse off.  As far as the economy is concerned, it has 
taken a step back, and as far as politics is concerned, Italy is 
hardly taken seriously abroad.  It has lost domestic cohesion." 
 
In the view of Frankfurter Allgemeine (10/09), "Italy is facing 
stormy 
times.  This rude fierceness with which Berlusconi attacked the 
president and the Constitutional Court does not bode well.  In this 
 
'war of institutions,' which Berlusconi now wants to fight though 
with 
his compatriots, Italy cannot win." 
 
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According to Handelsblatt (10/09), "the government head of one of 
the 
most important EU countries has lost his immunity and must now face 
 
several trials.  This smells of a state crisis, but as a matter of 
fact, it is not, because we are in Italy and the affected person is 
 
Silvio Berlusconi.  That is why different rules are valid, and it is 
 
extremely unlikely that he will step down or that new elections will 
 
be held after the ruling of the Constitutional Court.  And if new 
elections are really held, Berlusconi would win again.  One reason 
is 
different ethical standards that dominate in Italy.  Corruption and 
 
tax evasion do not have such a negative connotation as, for 
instance, 
in Germany." 
 
Berliner Zeitung (10/09) opined: "In every other country, the prime 
 
minister would have stepped down in view of such facts.  But 
Berlusconi does not want to give up, at least not as long as his 
coalition partners continue to support him for strategic 
calculations. 
He has nothing to fear from the left wing in parliament.  It is in a 
 
desolate state.  That is why the debate over Berlusconi could soon 
be 
transferred to the streets  places in Italy.  He announced yesterday 
 
that he wanted to demonstrate to Italians what kind of man he is. 
This is reassuring for one camp and a threat to the other camp." 
 
Financial Times Deutschland (10/09) is of a different opinion and 
editorializes: "It may be possible that Silvio Berlusconi is a 
scoundrel.  But the Italians, who have elected him as prime minister 
 
for the third time, already know this.  The courts frequently proved 
 
that he relied on corruption to build up his media empire.  But if 
Italians, nevertheless, elected a scoundrel as prime minister, then 
 
this prime minister must also have the chance to govern.  Of course, 
 
Berlusconi must be held accountable for his machinations.  But it 
cannot be the right of a few judges either to determine the end of 
his 
term by arresting him.  Irrespective of the current case, Italy 
needs 
a law that shows the justice authorities their limits and protects 
the 
state leadership from prosecution, even though this would require an 
 
amendment to the Constitution.  Such a rule could save the country a 
 
month-long trench warfare and political standstill." 
 
Regional daily Mnchener Merkur (10/09) opined: "Basically, the 
ruling 
of the Constitutional Court is unspectacular.  It is the normal 
reaction of a state to the attempt of one individual politician to 
put 
himself above the institutions.  Every citizen understands this, but 
 
not Berlusconi.  This elusive politician is still hoping that there 
 
 
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will be no political alternative to him.  But this should change if 
 
the past catches up with him before the court.  For Italy, this 
means 
an eroding loss of reputation, and Berlusconi does not want to save 
 
his compatriots from such a development.  Otherwise he would have 
taken the necessary steps and stepped down." 
 
¶5.   (UK)   Tory Party Conference 
 
Sddeutsche editorialized: "The Tory leader has charisma and can 
speak 
quite well.  However, charisma is not a feat if the political 
opponent 
is Gordon Brown, who is as warmhearted as a tense bulldog.  And a 
charismatic speaker can quickly turn into a vain chatterbox.  Barack 
 
Obama is currently undergoing this experience.  Cameron once saw him 
 
as a model....  In a crisis, people do not want rhetoric but 
determination.  So far, Cameron has not shown any of that.  A 
victory 
of the Tories is therefore not certain." 
 
Die Welt carried an editorial under the headline: "On the Island of 
 
Debt," and judged: "No other party but the Tories has ever tried to 
 
win elections for the House of Commons by demonstrating so much 
courage.  They made a clear statement on what is needed in the 
future, 
ranging from a strict austerity policy to wage cuts and a retirement 
 
age that will be shifted.  This alone is evidence of the tense 
situation in the UK.  In this situation, the gamble the British 
conservatives are taking with their European Union membership looks 
 
like a partisan attempt to push aside of a lot of bad news.  They 
think that by coming on strong to Brussels, they can let off steam 
towards the EU.  But splendid isolation is no answer to the EU's 
reform deficiencies; only cooperation would be." 
 
¶6.   (U.S.)   Economic Development 
 
Handelsblatt (10/09) deals with the interpretation of the quarterly 
 
results of U.S. companies and warns of rash conclusions.  The daily 
 
editorialized: "Alcoa has now offered a picture which we will 
continue 
to see during the reporting season of quarterly results.  Almost all 
 
results are favorable because the companies cut costs, while sales 
continue to stay at the crisis level.  At best, they improve 
slightly, 
and, in a worst case scenario, (such as in the U.S. automobile 
industry) they are again beginning to decline.  This does not leave 
 
companies any other choice but to continue to thin out their staff 
and 
to orient their activities to medium-term lower sales levels.  For 
the 
largest economy in the world, this is a central and still 
underestimated problem in the financial industry.  Even if the 
quarterly results are better than expected, they will be at the 
expense of the people and will escalate the unemployment problem. 
The 
dangerous development is that in the second wave of staff cuts, 
 
BERLIN 00001270  006 OF 006 
 
 
well- 
paid managers and employees will also lose their jobs.  In addition, 
 
an increasing number of civil servants in the United States will 
lose 
their jobs because states such as California are almost bankrupt and 
 
must cut their budgets. The trend of, to an increasing extent, 
well- 
paid workers also losing their jobs is already apparent...and this 
means 
that a cut of consumer spending is only a question of time.  And for 
 
trade, these are sad prospects which do not fit the picture of a 
solid 
recovery.  The jobs that the United States is currently losing in 
crisis sectors cannot be built up again in other sectors.  In the 
short-term, all indications are that, despite assistance, more jobs 
 
will be lost in the United States than new ones will be created.  In 
 
order to break this trend, corporate America needs an increase in 
sales at home and in competitive products for the markets abroad. 
But 
improved quarterly results that are primarily based on cuts are at 
best tranquilizers for the financial market." 
 
 MURPHY