VZCZCXRO0871
PP RUEHBC RUEHDA RUEHDE RUEHDH RUEHIHL RUEHKUK
DE RUEHGB #2660/01 2761124
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 031124Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4930
INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002660 
 
AIDAC 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID EFIN ETRD ECON PGOV PREL IZ
SUBJECT: IRAQ'S ECONOMY ON THE EVE OF THE ELECTION: ARE YOU 
BETTER OFF NOW THAN FOUR YEARS AGO? 
 
REF: A. BAGHDAD 2301 
     ¶B. BAGHDAD 2514 
 
This cable is sensitive but unclassified; please protect 
accordingly. 
 
¶1. (SBU) On the eve of the election season in Iraq, we do not 
expect any major party or coalition to campaign on a record 
of economic success.  Security and stability continue to be 
the primary focus, and are essential for economic success. 
However, it is worthwhile to compare today,s Iraqi economy 
with the economy that existed before the formation of Iraq's 
first democratically elected government in May 2006. 
 
¶2. (SBU) From a strictly economic point view, looking at the 
macroeconomic figures below, an average Iraqi might answer 
"yes"to the question: "Are you better off now than you were 
four years ago?"  A general improvement in the security 
situation has contributed to a fall in inflation (ref A). 
Private bank lending has surpassed private bank capital (ref 
B), meaning more Iraqi consumers and businesses are able to 
borrow to achieve their goals.  The benefits of technology 
are spreading as power generation is improving and cell phone 
and internet usage is growing.  Finally, total trade and 
imports grew considerably, reflecting that more foreign goods 
are in the market than four years ago.  (NOTE: August 2009 is 
the most recent point for which we have corresponding data. 
Projected data are noted with a (P). END NOTE.) 
 
¶3. (U) 
 
Indicator                December 2005      August 2009 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
Headline inflation,         31.6%            -0.3% 
year-over-year 
(y-o-y) Consumer 
Price Index 
 
Core inflation              28.6%            10.8% 
 
Civilian casualties         12,515           5,336 
(cumulative 
total for 12 months 
period ending 
December 2005 and 
August 2009) 
 
Dinar/Dollar exchange       1474             1170 
rate, as of 
year end 2005 and month 
end Aug 2009 
 
MinFinance T-Bill rates,    8.9%             5.8% 
as of year 
end 2005 and month end 
Aug 2009 
 
CBI Policy Rate, as of      7%               7% 
year end 2005 
and month end August 2009 
 
Bank loans to customers     $1.16            $4.48 
in billions USD 
 
Bank customer deposits,     $9.39            $35.58 
in billions USD 
 
Imports of goods and        $24.9            $38.9 (P) 
services, in billions USD 
 
Exports of goods and        $23.5            $36.2 (P) 
services, in billions USD 
 
Nominal GDP,                $31.4            $68.6 (P) 
in billions USD 
 
GDP Growth                  -0.7%             6.9% (P) 
 
Oil GDP Growth              -8.1%             8.7% (P) 
 
Crude Oil Production,        1.9              2.5 (P) 
millions barrels per day 
 
Crude Oil Exports,           1.4              2.15 
(P) 
millions barrels per day 
 
Gross Official Reserves,     $12              $42 
in billlions USD 
 
BAGHDAD 00002660  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
Total Gross External Debt,   $351.6           $131.7 
in billions USD 
 
Current Account,             $1.9             $-4.2 
in billions USD 
 
GOI Budget, billions USD     $23.844          $58.615 
 
GOI Expenditures,            $17.834          $16.634 
billions USD 
 
Avg. Daily Megawatt Hours    91,725           135,890 
 
Cell phone subscribers,      3.8              19.0 
in millions 
 
Internet subscribers         147,076          820,000 (e) 
 
Unemployment                 25% - 40%        12% - 30% 
 
 
For sources and additional info, please contact the Finance 
and Development Team of the Embassy Baghdad Economic 
Section: chowpl@state.sgov.gov / woolfordmk@state.sgov.gov 
/ grauerkk@state.sgov.gov / werbergsx@state.sgov.gov. 
HILL