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O R 021443Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY ATHENS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0780
INFO EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS ATHENS 001525 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL GR
SUBJECT: GREEK ELECTION ENTERS HOMESTRETCH 
 
REF: ATHENS 1513 
 
¶1. (SBU) As all Greek parties finish their parliamentary election 
campaigns today, October 2, it remains too close to call whether 
the main opposition PASOK party led by George Papandreou will win 
enough seats October 4 to form a government on its own.  Although 
we have entered a campaign blackout period in which polls cannot 
legally be published, unpublished polls reportedly show an 
unusually large bloc of undecided voters, reaching perhaps 20 
percent.  PASOK is expected to capture more votes than the ruling 
New Democracy (ND) party of Prime Minister Costas Karamanlis, with 
current projections giving PASOK up to 40-41% and ND 36-37%.  The 
Communist Party of Greece (KKE) is expected to garner about 7.5% 
and the far-right LAOS about 6%.  Two other leftist parties, 
SYN/SYRIZA and the Eco-Greens, have seen their support increase 
over the course of the campaign and both are now around 3%, the 
threshold for entering Parliament.  PASOK's fortunes may rest on 
whether these two parties pass the threshold.  If both do, PASOK 
will have to score significantly higher than current projections to 
win an outright majority.  If one of the two passes the threshold 
it will be extremely close.  If neither passes the threshold PASOK 
should be on track to an outright majority. 
 
 
 
¶2. (SBU) Every Greek we've talked to has his or her own prediction 
for the final numbers, but it is questionable whether very many of 
them are based on a deep understanding of the complex formula for 
apportioning seats.  The outcome is likely to rest on whose voters 
turn out in greater (or less) numbers than projected.  There is 
widespread disillusionment with both major parties (especially 
within ND), making turnout dynamics difficult to predict.  Having 
said that, many of our ND contacts in government have packed out of 
their government offices.  If PASOK falls short of a majority, it 
will have a strong incentive not to try very hard to form a 
coalition government but instead to go for a second round of 
elections in November, which would be conducted under a revised 
electoral code giving a bigger boost in seats to the party that 
finishes first. 
McCarthy