VZCZCXRO1275
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDIR RUEHKUK RUEHTRO
DE RUEHAK #1560 3001418
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 271418Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1088
INFO RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 6429
RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS ANKARA 001560 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:N/A 
TAGS: CVIS PREL PGOV PHUM SOCI SCUL TU IR
SUBJECT: Major Iranian Protest Expected Next Wednesday 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: This week a variety of immigrant (IV) and 
non-immigrant visa (NIV) applicants told CONOFF that major national 
student-led protests are planned for Wednesday, November 4.  It is 
unclear who the leaders of the protests are, but participants plan 
to use "student's day" as a cover to stage a significant 
demonstration against Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the results of last 
summer's presidential election.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Organizers are exploiting November 4th because the 
government sanctions gatherings on that day to commemorate the 
taking of the U.S. Embassy.  Applicants noted the protests are well 
advertised on the internet such as on sites like Facebook.  A young 
pharmaceutical marketer from Tehran said that despite the high 
visibility of the planned protest on the web it appears to be 
unlikely the government can stop the events.  She added that there 
is no apparent guidance from Mir-Hossein Mousavi in relation to the 
protests.  A young diversity visa (DV) couple from Tehran said that 
the protests are originating from "the people" but Mehdi Karoubi and 
Mousavi would attend.  Another DV winner believes that behind the 
scenes the protests are likely organized by the various political 
factions that remain dissatisfied with the election results.  Tehran 
will be the epicenter of the protests, but some said that smaller 
protests are expected all around Iran. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Most applicants appeared excited about the demonstrations, 
however, not one applicant said they would themselves participate. 
One software engineer going for his Masters in New Mexico noted that 
he is not involved, but many of his college friends are planning to 
protest.  He added that his friends plan to chant "where is my 
vote?" and denounce Ahmadinejad.  A middle-aged couple from Tehran 
acknowledged that students are planning a large protest, but due to 
fear of beatings and arrests, plan to avoid the demonstrations. 
They added that although the protest is student-driven, they have 
heard Iranians of all ages will participate due to the widespread 
dissatisfaction with Ahmadinejad.  Another Tehran University 
graduate insisted that he is apolitical and will not participate. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) COMMENT: Based on NIV and IV interviews conducted over the 
past several months, optimism for change in Iran's political system 
in the near future appears to be nonexistent.  Although not one 
applicant believes that the current regime will survive, no one is 
holding their breath.  Applicants have noted an absence of 
leadership on the part of Mousavi and other opposition leaders. 
Although overall leadership is lacking, some applicants now look to 
Karoubi rather than Mousavi.  Apparent interest of applicants 
themselves participating in demonstrations has gradually decreased 
over the months since the initial demonstrations.  END COMMENT. 
 
JEFFREY