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O 051314Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6414
INFO AMEMBASSY ASMARA 
AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
USEU BRUSSELS
USMISSION GENEVA 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY ROME 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC
HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
DIA WASHDC
CJTF HOA
CDC ATLANTA GA
NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS ADDIS ABABA 002402 
 
 
STATE DEPARTMENT AF/E, AF/PDPA, OES, AND PRM/AFR 
USAID for AFR EGAST, CTHOMPSON 
DCHA/AA SCROMER 
DCHA/OFDA CCHAN, ACONVERY, JFLEMMING, PMORRIS, 
KCHANNELL, CCHRISTIE 
DCHA/FFP JDWORKEN, PMOHAN 
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD 
USDA/FAS FOR U/S PENN, RTILSWORTH, AND LPANASUK 
NAIROBI FOR OFDA/ECARO GPLATT, JKIMBROUGH, RFFPO 
NCOX 
USMISSION UN ROME FOR RNEWBERG 
NEW YORK FOR DMERCADO 
USEU FOR PBROWN 
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH, RMA 
NSC FOR CPRATT 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: EAID PHUM PREL PREF SO
SUBJECT:  ETHIOPIA FY 2010 DISASTER REDECLARATION 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
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¶1.  In July 2009, the Government of the Federal 
Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (GFDRE) increased 
the projected number of people requiring emergency 
food assistance between June and December 2009 to 
6.2 million people, from previous January to June 
2009 estimates of 4.2 million people.  In addition, 
an estimated 7.5 million chronically food-insecure 
beneficiaries currently receive assistance from the 
GFDRE-managed Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP). 
 
¶2.  Populations in many areas of the country 
confront significant humanitarian challenges, 
including conflict, malnutrition, delayed food 
deliveries, potential flooding and disease 
outbreaks, such as acute watery diarrhea (AWD).  In 
addition, the USAID-supported Famine Early Warning 
Systems Network (FEWS NET) anticipates that the 
delayed onset and poor performance of the June to 
September meher rains, combined with the widespread 
failure of the previous four rains, will result in a 
below-normal October to January meher harvest in 
crop-producing areas of Ethiopia, contributing to a 
further deterioration in food insecurity and 
increased malnutrition.  Charge d'Affaires (CDA) 
therefore re-declares a disaster in response to the 
complex emergency in Ethiopia and requests the 
continued provision of disaster assistance in fiscal 
year (FY) 2010.  End summary. 
 
---------- 
BACKGROUND 
---------- 
 
¶3.  Consecutive seasons of failed rains, combined 
with a rapidly growing population, increased 
inflation, endemic poverty, and limited government 
capacity, have led to chronic food insecurity and 
water shortages in large areas of Ethiopia, 
including Somali Region and parts of Oromiya, Afar, 
Tigray, Amhara, and Southern Nations, Nationalities, 
and Peoples (SNNP) regions.  Land degradation, small 
and decreasing farmer landholdings, lack of access 
to off-farm labor, poor access to health services, 
potable water, and markets also continue to 
undermine food security and vulnerable populations' 
ability to resist cyclical shocks.  Low immunization 
coverage and limited access to health services 
coupled with poor nutrition pose risks for 
contagious disease epidemics, including malaria, 
measles, cholera, meningitis, and HIV/AIDS.  In 
addition, flooding, drought, volcanic activity, and 
locust and army worm infestations represent cyclical 
events and ongoing risks to populations in Ethiopia. 
 
----------------- 
CURRENT SITUATION 
----------------- 
 
¶4.  According to GFDRE estimates, 6.2 million 
individuals currently require emergency food 
assistance countrywide, in addition to 7.5 million 
people chronically food-insecure PSNP beneficiaries. 
The collective impact of drought conditions, poor 
rain performance, widespread AWD outbreaks, 
significant population displacement, and increasing 
malnutrition rates continue to contribute to 
deteriorating humanitarian conditions. 
 
--- Food Security and Agriculture --- 
 
¶5.  Poor performance of the 2009 February to May 
belg rains has resulted in water shortages, 
decreased pasture availability, and significantly 
reduced belg crop performance in southern and 
northeastern Ethiopia.  In addition, FEWS NET has 
reported the delayed onset and early cessation of 
the June to October meher rains in some areas, 
increasing the likelihood of a significantly reduced 
meher harvest, the source of more than 90 percent of 
Ethiopia's annual crop production. 
 
¶6.  Similar rainfall patterns in 2002 led to a 21 
percent reduction in total harvest yields from the 
previous five-year average and increased rates of 
severe acute malnutrition (SAM).  The poor 
performance of the 2009 summer (kiremt) rains 
exceeds 2002 conditions, affecting drought-prone 
areas as well as areas that normally receive 
sufficient rain, including crop surplus-producing 
parts of Ethiopia.  Areas affected include Tigray, 
Amhara, Oromiya, SNNP, Afar Regions, and Somali 
regions. 
 
¶7.  The anticipated below-normal main October to 
January meher harvest is expected to result in the 
early onset of the traditional June to September 
hunger season and an increase in staple food prices 
in early 2010, exacerbating existing inflationary 
pressures on poor households and contributing to 
increased food insecurity. 
 
¶8.  Due to the effects of intensifying food 
insecurity and drought conditions in neighboring 
countries, the U.N. Office for Coordination of 
Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reports increased 
pastoralists and livestock movement from Kenya and 
Somalia to Ethiopia seeking access to water and 
grazing land and straining limited resources in 
pastoral areas of Ethiopia.  The U.N. Food and 
Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that more 
than 200,000 livestock have moved across the border 
into Oromiya Region since June 2009.  The influx of 
livestock increases the risk of livestock disease 
and conflict over scarce resources, according to 
FEWS NET. 
 
--- Health and Nutrition --- 
 
¶9.  Since early April, OCHA has reported an increase 
in the number of severely malnourished children 
admitted into therapeutic feeding programs (TFPs), 
with a total of 71,000 cases reported from January 
to July 2009.  However, TFP admission reporting 
rates remain low throughout Ethiopia, averaging 34 
percent and hindering an accurate assessment of 
malnutrition conditions.  OCHA notes that 
malnutrition conditions remain of significant 
concern, despite improvements from 2008 due to pre- 
positioning of ready-to-use therapeutic food (RUTF) 
and more proactive identification and treatment of 
severely malnourished children by government health 
extension workers with support from the U.N. 
Children's Fund (UNICEF) and NGOs.  UNICEF estimates 
that 242,000 children under-five years of age will 
require treatment for SAM through the end of 2009 
with increased caseloads expected in 2010 associated 
with projected reductions in the main meher crop 
harvest. 
 
¶10.  In early September, the U.N. World Health 
Organization (WHO) and UNICEF reported more than 
18,000 cholera and AWD cases in seven out of ten 
regions countrywide.  The GFDRE Ministry of Health 
anticipates up to an additional 114,000 cases before 
the end of the year due to the effects of the rainy 
season and increased vulnerability to infection 
among food-insecure populations. 
 
--- Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) --- 
 
¶11.  Although widespread, resource-related internal 
and cross-border conflict remains under-reported due 
to GFDRE sensitivities.  In February 2009 alone, 
ethnic conflict in Somali and Oromiya regions 
displaced more than 100,000 people and resulted in 
300 deaths.  Following recent clashes along the 
Sudanese border, NGOs and U.N. agencies reported the 
displacement of an estimated 30,000 individuals 
within Gambella Region.  The anticipated reduction 
in the main meher harvest production coupled with 
consecutive seasons of failed rains is predicted to 
increase conflict for scarce resources, leading to 
increased ethnic violence and displacement. 
 
--- Somali Region Challenges --- 
 
¶12.  Somali Region is one of the most drought- 
affected areas in Ethiopia but ongoing counter- 
insurgency operations have limited humanitarian 
access and response efforts.  Although improved from 
past years, access remains sporadic, ad-hoc, and 
often dependent on local military commander 
decisions, despite efforts by the Somali Regional 
Government to formalize access procedures. 
 
¶13.  Insurgent activity and security operations have 
disrupted trade networks.  Restrictions on the 
movement of people and livestock, combined with the 
failure of past rains, have also exacerbated food 
insecurity and malnutrition.  Severe water shortages 
exist in all seven, highly belg rain-dependent 
districts, according to the Somali Regional State 
Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Bureau (DPPB). 
Consecutive seasons of failed rains associated with 
significant livestock losses in 2008 have reduced 
coping mechanisms and increased population 
vulnerabilities. 
 
---Potential Flooding --- 
 
¶14.  El Nino conditions are expected to result in 
normal to above-normal rainfall during the upcoming 
October to December rainfall season, according to 
the USAID-supported Famine Early Warning Systems 
Network (FEWS NET).  FEWS NET cautions that heavy 
rains are likely to result in increased livestock 
mortality among weakened animals in drought-affected 
areas, flooding, infrastructure damage, reduced 
humanitarian and commercial access, and increased 
incidents in human and livestock water-related 
diseases, such as malaria, diarrheal disease, and 
Rift Valley Fever (RVF). 
 
----------------------- 
Disaster Re-Declaration 
----------------------- 
 
¶15.  As a result of current and projected 
humanitarian needs resulting from the cumulative 
impact of consecutive seasons of failed or poor 
rainfall, localized conflict, disease outbreaks, 
potential flooding, and high food prices on 
increased food insecurity and malnutrition among 
vulnerable populations, CDA re-declares a complex 
emergency disaster for Ethiopia in FY 2010.  It is 
beyond the ability of the GFDRE to fully address 
increased humanitarian needs.  It is in the interest 
of the USG to provide humanitarian assistance and 
the GFDRE will accept continued USG support. 
Therefore, CDA requests USG humanitarian resources 
to address urgent humanitarian needs and reduce the 
risk of vulnerable populations in Ethiopia. 
 
MUSHINGI