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RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSL RUEHSR RUEHVK
RUEHYG
DE RUEHVI #1252 2720839
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 290839Z SEP 09
FM AMEMBASSY VIENNA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3377
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS VIENNA 001252 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL AU
SUBJECT: UPPER AUSTRIAN ELECTIONS: SOCIAL DEMOCRATS LOSE BIG 
 
REF: VIENNA 1220 
 
¶1. (U) Summary: The conservative People's Party (OVP) 
finished a strong first in the September 27 Upper Austrian 
elections with a better-than-expected showing, while the 
Social Democrats (SPO) suffered an historic setback and 
placed a distant second.  The rightwing, populist Freedom 
Party (FPO) came in third, nearly doubling its vote total 
from the previous state election.  This latest SPO setback 
has already heightened the pressure on Chancellor Faymann to 
set a new course in order to bolster the party's image and 
standing in advance of next year's state elections.  End 
Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) The SPO took only 24.9 percent of the vote, down 13.4 
percent from the last state elections in 2003 and much worse 
than polls, pundits, or the party itself had feared/predicted 
(a 3-8 percent loss, reftel).  The result marked the party's 
worst post-World War II performance in Upper Austria and its 
largest decline in back-to-back elections in any state. 
Traditionally strong in urban areas,  the SPO lost its 
absolute majority in the Upper Austrian cities of Linz, Steyr 
and Wels.  The FPO, which competes with the SPO for blue 
collar votes, gained in all three cities; in Wels, the 
rightwing party nearly tripled its 2003 performance, 
garnering just under a third of the vote.  State SPO members 
decided at a September 28 meeting to maintain Erich Haider in 
his position as state party chairman until the SQconvention 
in summer 2010, at which time he will likely be replaced. 
 
¶3. (U) The OVP, meanwhile, led by popular Governor Josef 
Puehringer, was expected to fare slightly worse than in 2003, 
while retaining its clear first-place position.  Instead, the 
party scored 46.8 percent, up 3.3 percent from 2003. 
 
¶4. (U) The FPO finished a solid third on the strength of an 
anti-immigrant, anti-Muslim campaign, garnering 15.3 percent 
of the vote, up 6.9 points from its dismal 2003 result, but 
below the historic high of over 20 percent in the 1997 Upper 
Austrian elections.  Upper Austria has a large blue collar 
workforce and a strong nationalist element, and the FPO was 
expected to do well.  FPO lead candidate Manfred Haimbuchner 
offered his party as a coalition partner, and urged the other 
parties not to rule out cooperation with the FPO. 
 
¶5. (U) "Cabinet" positions in the Upper Austrian government 
are allocated proportionally based on parties' representation 
in the state legislature.  The OVP, SPO, FPO, and the Greens, 
who garnered 9.2 percent of the vote, will be awarded cabinet 
positions.  The BZO, an FPO spinoff, drew only 2.8 percent 
and will not be in the government.  The OVP has enough seats 
in the state legislature to elect Puehringer governor without 
a coalition partner, but the party needs a partner to ease 
the passage of legislation.  Puehringer announced after the 
vote that he will hold coalition discussions with each of the 
other parties.  The most likely outcome would be a renewal of 
the existing OVP-Green coalition, which appears to work well. 
 An OVP-SPO coalition appears less likely with Haider staying 
on for the time being.  Haider ran an aggressive and, by 
Austrian standards, negative campaign of attacks on 
Puehringer's character, and a number of contacts told us 
Puehringer would not form a coalition with a Haider-led SPO. 
A coalition with the controversial FPO is considered even 
less likely. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) This latest setback has heightened the pressure on 
Chancellor Faymann from within his own party to sharpen the 
SPO's image vis-a-vis the OVP.  Faymann continues to publicly 
reject calls for a change of course, but the blow to his 
image as a leader is bound to have an effect.  The SPO has 
announced plans to develop a new integration policy; some 
party leaders have asserted that the lack of a clear policy 
on this high-profile issue has weakened the SPO's image.  A 
distinct SPO policy would, it is hoped, help stem the loss of 
SPO voters to the FPO.  This will not be easy.  It is 
difficult to imagine any party taking anti-immigrant votes 
away from the xenophobic FPO, and an immigrant friendly 
policy would alienate blue collar social democrats fearful of 
losing jobs to lower paid foreigners. 
EACHO