VZCZCXRO3660
PP RUEHBC RUEHDBU RUEHDE RUEHDIR RUEHFL RUEHKUK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP
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DE RUEHSM #0586/01 2541457
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 111457Z SEP 09
FM AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4717
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000586 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2019 
TAGS: AF EUN IR PREL SW
SUBJECT: AFGHANISTAN, IRAN, CAUCASUS AT THE SEPTEMBER GAERC 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Marc Koehler for reasons 1.4 (B) and 
 (D). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary.  Foreign Ministers will address Afghanisan 
and Pakistan (AfPak), Iran, and the South Caucasus at the 
General Affairs and External Relations Council (GAERC) 
September 14-15. AfPak talks will center on fleshing out the 
EU's new regional strategy, reaction to final election 
results, and a possible international conference.  Iran 
discussions will address Tehran's response to the EU3 plus 3 
proposal.  The UN process must be exhausted before EU 
autonomous sanctions go on the table, and FM Bildt must be 
convinced that they will have the desired effect.  Ministers 
will explore ways to move toward association agreements with 
Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. Polcounselor and poloff 
obtained a readout from Magnus Scholdtz, head of the MFA's EU 
Correspondent's Office.  End Summary. 
 
 
AfPak 
----- 
 
¶2. (C) GAERC discussions of Afghanistan will focus on making 
the emerging EU AfPak strategy more concrete, working on the 
basis of inputs from both the European Commission and the 
"envoy club" of special representatives for AfPak that met 
last week.  Swedish FM Bildt will try to get EU members to 
provide the 140 police officials still missing from the EUPOL 
quota.  A full catalogue of EU contributions to Afghanistan 
requested by Bildt during the September 4-5 Gymnich, to be 
known as the "Blue Book" will not be ready until October. 
There mere act of compiling this text will "guilt" Member 
States into doing more, Scholdtz said.  Bildt has emphasized 
the centrality of civilian efforts to success in Afghanistan, 
and Scholdz noted that for the Swedes, increasing the 
civilian component is key to gaining political support for 
increases in military personnel.  Ministers will probably 
also discuss the final Afghan vote count due out just before 
the GAERC.  A key topic will be what to do if President 
Karzai appears to win a first round victory but fraud 
allegations later erode his vote share to less than a 
majority.  "How many motions is it worth going through (ie a 
second round of voting) if it is clear that Karzai will win 
in the end?" Scholdtz mused.  The German/French/British 
proposal for an Afghanistan conference will also be 
discussed. Scholdtz remarked that the presidency was dismayed 
that the Prime Ministers had not informed them before 
publicly proposing the conference, but was somewhat comforted 
by the fact that these countries' FMs had not been informed 
either.  Scholdtz hoped any conference would be held in Kabul 
and focus on shifting responsibility to Afghans, instead of 
repeating more "remote" conferences like the Bonn conference. 
 Scholdtz also judged that any time that ministers could 
spare for Pakistan would be time well spent because 
discussion to date has been "sketchy and inconclusive."  Time 
would definitely be set aside for Pakistan in the October 
GAERC. 
 
Iran 
---- 
 
¶3. (C) Dinner discussion of Iran will center on how to 
respond to Tehran's counterproposal to the EU3 plus 3.  The 
EU3 plus 3 are consulting today, and would present their 
ideas on Monday to the ministers.  The reply, which skirts 
the most important issues, could nonetheless form the basis 
of productive meetings, FM Bildt thinks.  Based on the 
response, the EU could possibly meet with Iran to stress the 
main principles of the original offer.  If the Iranian 
response is insufficient, or if Russia and China appear 
firmly unwilling to impose further sanctions, discussion will 
turn to EU sanctions.  Germany and France have already begun 
setting the stage for sanctions, but the UN route must be 
exhausted first.  FM Bildt has requested data from the EU 
Situation Center to estimate the effect of sanctions.  Bildt 
will not push for sanctions as a purely symbolic measure, 
Scholdtz explained.  Bildt must be convinced that they will 
curb the nuclear development, and not simply provide a 
scapegoat for the regime that will help it consolidate power 
while allowing the Chinese and Russians to expand their trade 
with Iran at Europe's expense. 
 
Caucasus 
-------- 
 
¶4. (C) Ministers will address the possibility of authorizing 
the Commission to begin negotiating association agreements 
for Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.  The ambition is to be 
inclusive of all three countries, while still differentiating 
between them based on their progress toward EU standards.  At 
the same time, the outreach serves as a signal to Belarus 
 
STOCKHOLM 00000586  002 OF 002 
 
 
that the EU's Eastern Partneship Program is a real 
opportunity to engage with Europe.  The ultimate goal, deep 
free trade deals with Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, is 
still far off, particularly for Azerbaijan which is not even 
a WTO member.  Discussion of the EU Monitoring Mission, if 
any, would likely center on ways to extend it to cover 
maritime claims.  The Incident Reporting Mechanism could be 
extended to maritime incidents, for example.  However, since 
the law of the sea differs greatly from ordinary law, 
maritime experts would have to be recruited. 
BARZUN