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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 SEOUL 001450 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON KPAO KS US
SUBJECT: SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; September 10, 2009 
 
TOP HEADLINES 
------------- 
 
 
Chosun Ilbo 
Liberty Forward Party Lawmaker Assails Unification Ministry for 
Alleged Attempt to Cover up Another "Water Attack" 
by N. Korea in August 
 
JoongAng Ilbo, Hankook Ilbo, Seoul Shinmun, 
Segye Ilbo, All TVs 
Unification Minister Hyun: 
"North Korea's Water Discharge Intentional" 
 
Dong-a Ilbo 
Technology Leakage; Russia Found to Have Developed 
Vehicle Modeled on GM-Daewoo Lacetti 
 
Hankyoreh Shinmun 
Government Agencies Ignore Advice to Correct 
Human Rights Violations 
 
 
DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS 
--------------------- 
 
ROK Unification Minister Hyun In-taek said at the National 
Assembly's Standing Committee on Unification yesterday that North 
Korea appears to have acted intentionally when it released dam water 
on Sunday to cause a flash flood on the Imjin River near the border. 
(All, All TVs) 
 
A key ROKG official said yesterday that there is an understanding 
among countries involved in the Six-Party Talks, such as the U.S. 
and the ROK, that a U.S.-North Korea bilateral dialogue may take 
place even before the Six-Party Talks restart, if the talks 
facilitate a resumption of the Six-Party process. This indicates a 
departure from the previous position of the U.S. that there will be 
no bilateral talks with the North unless it returns to the Six-Party 
Talks. (Dong-a, Chosun, Hankook, Hankyoreh, MBC, OhmyNews) 
 
 
INTERNATIONAL NEWS 
------------------ 
 
The U.S. Department of State moved on September 8 to freeze the 
assets of two North Korean entities believed to be involved in 
atomic and missile programs - the General Bureau of Atomic Energy 
and Korea Tangun Trading Corp. (JoongAng, Dong-a, Hankook, Seoul, 
Segye) 
 
The Center for Strategic and International Studies said in its 
preview of the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review that the U.S. is 
bracing for a possible nuclear war with North Korea, as well as the 
regime's possible sudden collapse. (Dong-a, Hankyoreh, Seoul, Segye, 
KBS) 
 
 
MEDIA ANALYSIS 
-------------- 
 
Korea - North/South tensions over river flooding 
All newspapers gave prominent attention to ROK Unification Minister 
Hyun In-taek's September 9 statement.  He said at the National 
Assembly's Standing Committee on Unification that North Korea 
appears to have acted intentionally when it released dam water on 
Sunday to cause a flash flood on the Imjin River near the border. 
Right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo quoted President Lee Myung-bak as 
saying on September 9, "The North Koreans seem to have a different 
perception of life."  The daily also observed in its inside-page 
story that the North Korean military may have acted deliberately in 
order to express discontent about Pyongyang's conciliatory gestures 
toward the ROK. 
 
SEOUL 00001450  002 OF 005 
 
 
 
Conservative Chosun Ilbo reported in its top story that Rep. Park 
Sun-young of the minor opposition Liberty Forward Party assailed the 
Unification Ministry yesterday for an alleged attempt to cover up 
what she called another "water attack" by North Korea that occurred 
on August 27. 
 
Left-leaning Hankyoreh Shinmun editorialized: "The hard-line stance 
(toward the North following the Imjin River incident) is not helpful 
to either the North or the South.  In this sense, the ROKG is right 
to consider proposing inter-Korean dialogue regarding the 
incident." 
 
North Korean Nuclear Issue 
 
Most major newspapers reported that the U.S. Department of State 
moved on September 8 to freeze the assets of two North Korean 
entities believed to be involved in atomic and missile programs - 
the General Bureau of Atomic Energy and Korea Tangun Trading Corp. 
 
 
All newspapers quoted a key ROKG official as saying yesterday that 
there is an understanding among all Six-Party countries except North 
Korea that a U.S.-North Korea bilateral dialogue may happen even 
before the Six-Party Talks restarts, if the talks facilitate a 
resumption of the Six-Party process. This indicates a departure from 
the previous position of the U.S. that there will be no bilateral 
talks with the North unless it returns to the Six-Party Talks. 
Left-leaning Hankyoreh Shinmun and conservative Chosun Ilbo quoted 
U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Policy Bosworth as 
saying before leaving Tokyo on September 8 that 1) it has not been 
decided yet how (the U.S.) will respond to North Korea's invitation, 
and 2) a decision regarding that response could come in the next few 
weeks.  The newspaper also quoted an ROKG official as saying, "Not 
only the U.S. but also other nations can have bilateral talks with 
the North," which indicates that bilateral talks between North Korea 
and the U.S. and between North Korea and China may happen in order 
to facilitate the resumption of the Six-Party Talks. 
 
Most major newspapers reported that the Center for Strategic and 
International Studies said in its preview of the 2010 Quadrennial 
Defense Review that the U.S. is bracing for a possible nuclear war 
with North Korea, as well as the regime's possible sudden collapse. 
 
 
Conservative Chosun Ilbo and Segye Ilbo and moderate Seoul Shinmun 
quoted Pakistan's nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan as saying in an August 
31 Pakistan local television interview that Pakistan purchased 200 
missiles from North Korea in 1999.  Khan denied, however, that he 
transferred nuclear technology to North Korea in return for securing 
North Korea's missile technology.  Khan added that Pakistan took six 
years to weaponize highly enriched uranium, which implies that North 
Korea will also take at least several years to develop a highly 
enriched uranium bomb. 
 
Japan 
 
Hankyoreh Shinmun reported that the Democratic Party of Japan, the 
Social Democratic Party, and the People's New Party struck a 
coalition deal on September 9 and agreed to review aspects of the 
U.S. military presence in the country. 
 
Afghanistan 
 
Conservative Segye Ilbo replayed the U.K.'s Times story that 
Afghanistan President Karzai's alleged election fraud could endanger 
security in Afghanistan, thereby dealing a blow to the timetable for 
Western countries to withdraw their troops from the nation. 
 
Iran 
 
Moderate Hankook Ilbo reported that the Iranian government submitted 
a proposal regarding the resumption of nuclear talks to 
representatives of the six nations involved in the talks, and the 
 
SEOUL 00001450  003 OF 005 
 
 
details of the proposal, although not disclosed, will determine 
whether the nuclear talks will resume or not. 
 
 
OPINIONS/EDITORIALS 
-------------------- 
 
SEOUL MUST PREPARE FOR REGIME COLLAPSE IN N. KOREA 
(Chosun Ilbo, September 10, 2009, page 35) 
 
The U.S. Defense Department is said to be seriously considering the 
inclusion of a regime collapse scenario for North Korea in the 
Quadrennial Defense Report (QDR) to be delivered to Congress early 
next year.  The QDR preparation team, led by Defense Under Secretary 
Michele Flournoy, is studying how the U.S. should deal with 11 
different scenarios, including loss of control by the Pakistani 
government over its nuclear weapons arsenal and a military 
confrontation between Taiwan and China.  The fact that the 
possibility of regime collapse in North Korea is being studied under 
the QDR, a blueprint for defense policy, signals that the prospect 
of sudden changes in the North has become part of the U.S. 
government's official agenda. 
 
This year, the U.S. government has been putting the same amount of 
focus on how to deal with sudden changes in North Korea as it does 
on the North's nuclear weapons and missile programs.  During her 
first trip to the ROK in February, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary 
Clinton expressed concern about the succession to North Korean 
leader Kim Jong-il.  "If there is a succession, even if it's a 
peaceful succession, that creates more uncertainty, and it may also 
encourage behaviors that are even more provocative," she said. 
Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg proposed talks with 
Chinese officials to discuss how to deal with the succession in 
North Korea.  Beijing is said to have rejected Washington's offer 
due to fears of agitating Pyongyang. 
 
But China is not neglecting the issue.  Quite the opposite: it has 
been steadily increasing troops along the border.  It could use them 
either to intervene directly if North Korea undergoes a sudden 
change or to take the issue to the UN and block ROK efforts to unify 
with the North.  Japan has also quietly been preparing for some time 
to deal with a crisis in North Korea. 
 
The U.S., China, Japan and other powers now have no choice but to 
treat an emergency situation in North Korea as a major 
consideration.  Kim, who disappeared from public eye for almost two 
months last year due to a stroke, is now attending official events 
again, but nobody can say with certainty how long the 67-year-old 
leader will wield absolute power. 
 
The ROK would face a national emergency if something happened to 
Kim, which could cause North Korea to spiral into chaos and cause 
its nuclear weapons and missiles to fall into the hands of 
opportunists.  The U.S., which believes its national security 
depends on preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons, will be 
on high alert.  Unexpected changes in North Korea are like buried 
landmines (that could disrupt) the political situation in Northeast 
Asia and could affect the lives of 75 million Koreans on both sides 
of the border. 
 
But we are unprepared.  A draft operational plan prepared by the ROK 
and the U.S. to handle a sudden change in North Korea was downgraded 
by the Roh Moo-hyun Administration, which was afraid of incensing 
North Korea.  But whether we like it or not, regional superpowers 
have already begun preparing for sudden changes in North Korea.  If 
the North Korean regime collapses, we would not be able to use that 
opportunity for our benefit and would end up entrusting our fate 
once again to the hands of other countries. 
 
(This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is 
identical to the Korean version.) 
 
 
¶S. KOREAN GOVERNMENT SHOULD PREVENT REPEAT OF IMJIN TRAGEDY 
 
SEOUL 00001450  004 OF 005 
 
 
(Hankyoreh Shinmun, September 10, 2009, page 35) 
 
Various debates taking place since the "Imjin Disaster" are failing 
to move in a proper direction and are instead going astray.  Rather 
than focusing on investigating the cause of the incident and 
discussing substantive measures to prevent a repeat, debates are 
moving towards ideological attacks and apportioning blame. 
 
First, these debates are having an ill effect on the thawing 
atmosphere of inter-Korean relations.  Of course, North Korea 
provided the primary cause.  Even though six South Korean citizens 
ultimately lost their lives, North Korea has not yet expressed an 
apology or regret.  Looking beyond whether North Korea violated 
international agreements or existing practice, its failure to make a 
reference to the human losses is worth criticizing from a 
humanitarian perspective. 
 
North Korea's expressed reason for releasing water from their dam 
without notice also lacks persuasiveness.  North Korea said it 
immediately released the water when the water level at its dam rose, 
but there has not been a lot of rain recently in North Korea.  An 
additional, convincing explanation is required. 
 
Hardliners in the ROK are seizing on this opportunity to spout 
confrontational claims.  Some media are issuing believe-it-or-not 
reports claiming that the water release from Hwanggang Dam was 
ordered by North Korean leaders or military leadership.  Some 
figures are agitating anti-North Korea opinion by reviving the 
anti-communist logic of the military governments of the past, 
claiming the ROK needs to build a second Peace Dam to stop a North 
Korean water attack. 
 
The hard-line stance (toward the North following the Imjin River 
incident) is not helpful to either the North or the South.  As 
inter-Korean relations worsen, our political and economic losses 
grow.  If flood prevention measures for the Imjin River, which 
repeatedly floods, is our primary focus, it would be much cheaper to 
build an inter-Korean cooperative system than it would be to build a 
contingency dam. In this sense, the ROKG is right to consider 
proposing inter-Korean dialogue regarding the incident.  The ROK and 
North Korea should quickly adjourn to the negotiating room, frankly 
express their opinions, and ensure that a similar incident does not 
happen again. 
 
Also deeply problematic is how the ROK government appears to be 
avoiding its own responsibility by taking advantage of North Korea's 
"water attack."  ROK authorities' emergency system failure 
compounded North Korea's failure to give sufficient notice about the 
water release which resulted in this man-made disaster.  Despite 
this, the ROK government is choosing to condemn North Korea, and 
itself is also failing to offer an apology to the people.  The ROK 
government must not exaggerate and stress the other side's 
responsibility in order to avoid its own responsibility.  Those 
involved in the ROK must be held accountable and must formulate 
stringent measures to prevent a repeat. 
 
(This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is 
identical to the Korean version.) 
 
 
FEATURES 
-------- 
 
5 COUNTRIES GIVE NOD TO N. KOREA-U.S. TALKS 
(Chosun Ilbo, September 10, 2009, page 3) 
 
By Reporter Lim Min-hyuk 
 
The ROK, China, Japan, Russia and the United States are reaching 
consensus to support bilateral talks between North Korea and the 
U.S., if that can persuade the North to return to the Six-Party 
denuclearization talks.  Until recently, the five countries were in 
favor of such bilateral talks only after North Korea pledges to 
return to the Six-Party Talks or demonstrates political commitment 
 
SEOUL 00001450  005 OF 005 
 
 
(to denuclearization).  But now the countries support U.S.-North 
Korea bilateral talks if they can serve to resuscitate the Six-Party 
process. 
 
A key ROKG official said that nothing has been decided yet on how 
U.S.-North Korea talks will take place in the future.  The official 
added that however, there is an understanding among the five 
countries that a U.S.-North Korea bilateral dialogue may take place 
even before the Six-Party Talks restart, if the talks facilitate a 
resumption of the Six-Party process.  The official said that 
discussions about the matter were held during the recent Asia tour 
of Stephen Bosworth, the U.S. Special Representative for North Korea 
Policy.  It has not been decided whether Bosworth will visit North 
Korea and if so when, but some kind of decision is expected within 
weeks.  After his visit to Japan, Bosworth said, "The United States 
is willing to engage with North Korea on a bilateral basis, and we 
are currently considering how best to respond to a North Korean 
invitation for bilateral talks." 
 
The shift in position among the five countries reflects an 
assessment that it will be easier to bring North Korea back to the 
table by using some incentive as well as pressure by way of 
international sanctions.  By making it clear that the goal of the 
bilateral talks would only be to facilitate the Six-Party Talks, the 
five countries believe they can thwart North Korea's attempt to 
sabotage the Six-Party Talks and salvage their position that 
bilateral meetings must fit into the Six-Party framework. 
 
But an ROKG official said, "All this can only happen when there is a 
fundamental change in North Korea's attitude to denuclearization. 
Because it is North Korea who more desperately needs dialogue, the 
U.S. is in no hurry at all." 
 
 
 
TOKOLA