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RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHSA #1782/01 2450849
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 020849Z SEP 09
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9495
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHTN/AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 7100
RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN 1192
RUEHJO/AMCONSUL JOHANNESBURG 9464
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 001782 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM ASEC SF PGOV
SUBJECT: LEKOTA PERSONAL ASSISTANT WARNS "WATCH OUT FOR 
SHILOWA" 
 
PRETORIA 00001782  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
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Summary 
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¶1. (SBU)  The Congress of the People (COPE) has been in the 
news recently not for the party's stance on key issues or for 
its plans for tackling problems at the national and 
provincial levels.  Rather, COPE has been in the news for the 
continued political infighting that has plagued the party 
since it appointed Mvume Dandala as its presidential 
candidate over Mosiuoa Lekota.  Poloffs met with Lekota's 
personal assistant, Tseliso Phomane, in mid-August to discuss 
the key challenges facing COPE and where the party will be 
headed before the 2011 local elections.  End Summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
From Nothing to a Party With Responsibilities 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU)  COPE organizer Tseliso Phomane met with Poloffs in 
mid-August to discuss the state of the party and the 
direction it will take ahead of the local elections. 
Phomane, who nearly died because of poor health and the 
stress of the election campaign, said that he has not been 
actively involved in the party for a few months but still 
talks to Lekota daily.  He opened the discussion about COPE 
by saying that the party "never recovered from the decision 
to field Dandala as its presidential candidate."  He said, 
"People had no idea who the face of the party was during the 
campaign."  He judged the party lost money and numerous 
voters because it could not be clear about party leadership 
and related, "We could have been in power right now had 
different decisions been made."  Phomane attributed the 
leadership divisions to the fact that both Lekota and former 
Gauteng premier Mbhazima Shilowa "have massive egos." 
According to him, "Both men want nothing more than to be 
President of South Africa."  He said, "When Shilowa could not 
get enough support to be the face of the campaign, he turned 
to a compromise candidate."  Regarding the choice of Dandala 
as the party's face during the campaign, Phomane said that 
Lekota was personally devastated.  He related, "The wounds 
are still fresh.  He has yet to recover."  He added that the 
party's decision not to send Lekota to Parliament only added 
to his wounds. 
 
¶3. (SBU)  Given Phomane's close ties to Lekota, Poloff asked 
whether Shilowa has similar "smart strategists" to advise 
him.  Phomane answered that Shilowa is "very well-connected 
to Gauteng business leaders -- both black and white."  He 
added, "Shilowa's people are smart, but they are also 
ruthless.  They will see to it that Lekota is pushed aside 
and that Shilowa is positioned to be the leader of the 
party."  He said he expects a lot of political posturing to 
occur in the months ahead of COPE's national executive 
committee meeting in December, where leaders will be elected. 
 He noted, "The posturing will be behind closed doors.  I do 
not expect it to be about criticizing African National 
Congress legislation or the Jacob Zuma government.  It will 
be about quiet meetings and handshakes."  Phomane said, "In 
the end, I expect Shilowa to be COPE's leader and 
presidential candidate for 2014."  He pointed out that Lekota 
goes to COPE's headquarters every day and is actively trying 
to build branches.  He said, "Lekota has grassroots support, 
but Shilowa has the connections that will move the 
organization forward."  According to him, "There are reports 
Qorganization forward."  According to him, "There are reports 
that Lekota is pushing members out to insert officials 
favorable to his own ambitions.  I just do not buy that 
because Lekota just wants the branches to succeed.  It is not 
about him."  When asked where COPE has picked up ground since 
the election, Phomane replied that the areas with the most 
potential for growth appear to be in the Eastern Cape and in 
Northwest. 
 
¶4. (SBU)  Phomane ended the meeting by trying to give a 
positive spin on COPE's situation, but his body language 
belied his words.  He said, "We did an amazing job getting 
one million votes over a period of five months.  No one can 
take that any from us."  According to him, "We will win more 
cities in the municipal elections and be well positioned for 
2014."  The party is open to forming coalitions and is still 
in quiet discussions with the Democratic Alliance (DA) about 
partnering in certain areas ahead of 2011.  Yet, he said, "It 
is different when you are negotiating out of necessity than 
 
PRETORIA 00001782  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
out of strength (implying the DA is the stronger of the two 
parties)."  He added that COPE needs a strong research branch 
like the one the DA has.  Despite his statements, he jokingly 
said that he was looking to leave South Africa because he 
does not see much hope for the future of the country under 
the ANC and Zuma.  When Poloff asked him if COPE could 
things, he said, "Maybe." 
 
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Comment 
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¶5. (SBU)  Phomane remains as close to Lekota as anyone so his 
insight into the party carries weight.  The ongoing political 
infighting in COPE may not be entirely bad.  One reason it 
may not be bad is that it is happening now rather than during 
an election campaign.  The party has plenty of time to work 
through personality clashes and to sort through political 
appointments.  Another reason it may not be bad is that it 
could rid the organization of several big egos.  Most 
political analysts and commentators agreed during the 
election campaign that Lekota would not have been a strong 
face for the party over the long term.  Shilowa and his 
allies may be "ruthless," but Gauteng was probably governed 
more effectively than the Defense ministry was under Lekota. 
Thus, what COPE loses in the short term because of infighting 
it may gain in the long term in terms of a vision for the 
2011 elections. 
GIPS