VZCZCXRO6414
OO RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHIK RUEHMT RUEHPOD RUEHQU RUEHSL RUEHVC RUEHYG
DE RUEHOT #0725/01 2582138
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 152138Z SEP 09
FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9857
INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/CJCS WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JCS WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 1000
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000725 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL MARR EAID AF CA
SUBJECT: CANADA;  AFGHANISTAN QUARTERLY REPORT CLAIMS 
PROGRESS 
 
REF: A. OTTAWA 430 
     ¶B. OTTAWA 179 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  Summary.  The Canadian government's fifth 
quarterly report to Parliament on "Canada's Engagement in 
Afghanistan" on September 15 again claimed progress on most 
of the benchmarks of its six priority areas and three 
signature projects, while admitting high levels of insurgent 
violence and improvised explosive devices (IEDs).  Popular 
and even Parliamentary interest in the report and current 
details of Canada's involvement is nonetheless low, apart 
from continued concern about the deaths of Canadian Forces 
(the 130th soldier was killed on September 13).  With the 
Opposition Liberals in lock-step with the ruling 
Conservatives on the 2011 end date for Canada's military 
mission in Afghanistan, the issue is not likely to emerge as 
a campaign issue should the government fall in the coming 
weeks.  There is much media speculation of what President 
Obama may request of Prime Minister Harper on Afghanistan 
during their September 16 meeting in Washington .  End 
Summary. 
 
¶2.  (U)  Minister of International Trade and chairman of the 
Cabinet Committee on Afghanistan Stockwell Day on September 
15 released the government's quarterly report on "Canada's 
Engagement in Afghanistan," its fifth since the March 2008 
Parliamentary motion that extended the mission of the 
Canadian Forces, while mandating a final pull-out in 2011. 
The report admitted that "overall security 
conditions...continued to deteriorate," with the nationwide 
frequency of insurgent attacks in May and June "higher than 
in any month since the fall of the Taliban regime in 2001." 
The report underscored that Kandahar province experienced a 
"steep increase in the number of enemy-initiated attacks 
against soldiers, civilians and facilities," with the 
frequency of security events in Kandahar "exceptionally 
high."  It noted that IED incidents during the quarter were 
"108 percent higher than in the same three months of 2008." 
The report welcomed the influx of new U.S. troops, which has 
enabled Canada to concentrate on protecting the population of 
Kandahar City and surrounding villages instead of its earlier 
focus on "disrupting the insurgency in the countryside."  It 
also admitted that "government capacity in Afghanistan is 
chronically weak and undermined by widespread corruption." 
 
¶3.  (U)  In support of the Afghan National Police, Canada 
announced a new contribution of C$12 million to pay police 
salaries in Kandahar through the Law and Order Trust Fund for 
Afghanistan, administered by the UN Development Program. 
Canada now has 41 civilian Canadian police officers deployed 
with the ANP and the Ministry of the Interior, up by 12 
officers during the quarter.  Canada also contributed C$3 
million to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, C$6 million 
to the World Food Programme, and C$4 million to other 
humanitarian agencies, primarily for relief to Afghan 
refugees and internally displaced persons. 
 
------------ 
KEY FINDINGS 
------------ 
 
¶4.  (U)  Priority 1 -- Training and Mentoring Afghan National 
Security Forces 
--  as in previous reports, only one of five Afghan National 
Army "kandaks" is fully capable of planning, executing, and 
sustaining near-autonomous operations (2011 target:  four out 
of five so capable), but the other four have now "improved to 
the second highest capability milestone;" 
Qthe second highest capability milestone;" 
--  three of the five kandaks now have an effective strength 
of 70 pct or higher, compared to only one in 2008; 
--  71 pct of total security operations in the CF's AOR are 
now executed by the ANA, compared to a 45 pct baseline; 
--  the ANA now has an approval rating of 85 pct or more in 
five of the six key districts, compared to only four in June 
2008; 
--  a majority of Kandaharis in one of the six key districts 
now feel secure or perceive security as improving, compared 
to zero in June 2008 (2011 target is a majority in all six); 
--  90 pct of all Afghan National Police have completed an 
eight-week training program, already exceeding the 80 pct 
2011 target; 
--  100 pct of corrections officers have completed basic 
level training (meeting a 2011 target), with another 50 pct 
having completed advanced level training, and 100 pct of 
 
OTTAWA 00000725  002 OF 002 
 
 
senior managers having completed management training. 
 
¶5.  (U)  Priority 2 -- Strengthen Afghan institutional 
capacity to deliver core services and promote economic growth 
--  in connection with the "signature project" of the Dahla 
Dam, a new bridge was completed during the quarter and 27 new 
jobs were created (a total of 199 to date); 
--  Canada completed no new schools -- another "signature 
project" -- during the quarter, although 28 schools are now 
under construction, eight of which are more than 90 pct 
complete (five schools out of the 2011 target of 50 new 
schools are now ready); 
--  almost 11,000 individuals (mostly women) have completed 
literacy training, and 470 adults have received vocational 
training (about halfway in both cases to the 2011 target); 
--  although 75 pct of Kandaharis are satisfied with the 
Afghan government's efforts to improve the quality of life, 
only 44 pct -- down from 64 pct in 2008 -- are now satisfied 
with provision of education. 
 
¶6.  (U)  Priority 3 -- Provide humanitarian assistance 
--  on Canada's other "signature project -- polio eradication 
-- another 369,000 children in Kandahar were vaccinated, with 
7.2 million children now vaccinated throughout the country, 
but there were 13 new cases of polio in the first half of 
2009, including seven in Kandahar; 
--  during the quarter, another 0.27 square kilometers were 
cleared of landmines and released (2011 target is 500 square 
kilometers), with 42,000 individuals having received mine 
risk education (2011 target is 200,000); 
--  330 more health care workers were trained during the 
quarter (2011 target is 500 receive training). 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  Priority 4 --  Enhance border security 
--  joint working groups under the Dubai Process are now 
meeting, and a Canadian-facilitated discussion between Afghan 
and Pakistani military officials took place in May; 
--  construction began on a Joint District Coordination 
Center in Spin Boldak. 
 
¶8.  (U)  Priority 5 --  Democratic Development and National 
Institutions 
--  a new benchmark looks at how many provinces have 
completed a provincial strategic plan; training for officials 
from 22 provinces took place in May, with the first draft of 
Kandahar's strategic plan expected by December 2009; 
--  the sixth quarterly report will discuss the August 
election processes and results. 
 
¶9.  (U)  Priority 6 --  Political reconciliation 
--  no results in this quarter, especially in the absence of 
a "fully developed national reconciliation strategy." 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU)  As with previous reports, there was little public 
or even Parliamentary interest in the substance of this 
report.  This underscores again how much Afghanistan has all 
but disappeared as a hot political issue in Canada, despite 
the public sympathy over each new death of a Canadian soldier 
in Afghanistan (now up to 130, as well as one diplomat and 
two development workers), most recently on September 13. 
Although the Official Opposition Liberal Party now appears 
determined to topple the government this fall (for which it 
will need the support of two other opposition parties), 
Afghanistan is extremely unlikely to emerge as a campaign 
issue -- even though it is clear that Canada is not reaching 
most of its significant benchmarks.  Both the Liberals  and 
the Conservatives remain committed to the March 2008 
Qthe Conservatives remain committed to the March 2008 
Parliamentary motion that extended the Canadian Forces' 
mandate in Afghanistan but also set a clear and final 
pull-out of the CF for 2011.  Neither is now willing to 
revisit this issue, at least publicly.  There is, however, 
much media speculation of what President Obama may request of 
Prime Minister Harper on Afghanistan during their September 
16 meeting in Washington . 
 
Visit Canada,s North American partnership community at 
http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / 
 
BREESE