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OO RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHMT RUEHQU RUEHVC
DE RUEHOT #0719/01 2581945
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O 151945Z SEP 09
FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9849
INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000719 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.0. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV CA
SUBJ:  CANADA: ODDS RISE FOR GOVERNMENT TO SURVIVE -- THIS WEEK 
 
REF:  OTTAWA 709 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Odds of the federal government's survival -- for 
now -- rose again on September 14 following a Conservative gesture 
to the opposition on Employment Insurance (E.I.) that may be enough 
to allow the New Democratic Party (NDP) to switch tactics and back 
the government, at least temporarily averting an election that the 
NDP is ill-equipped to fight.  However, the left-wing NDP is 
unlikely to risk alienating its core supporters by propping up the 
Conservatives for very long.  For their part, the Conservatives 
currently occupy a sweet spot -- ahead in the polls and governing as 
the economy improves, but election-ready if the opposition parties 
unite to topple the government in the coming weeks.  While the 
government looks likely to survive a confidence vote on a Ways and 
Means motion on September 18, it will likely face another confidence 
vote on September 29 or 30, which it may well lose.  End Summary. 
 
 
CONSERVATIVES SEIZE THE INITIATIVE 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) The House of Commons reconvened on September 14 after its 
summer break, and the Conservatives moved quickly to test their 
support in the House of Commons after Liberal leader Michael 
Ignatieff announced on September 1 that his party would no longer 
prop up the government (reftel).  The Conservatives tabled notice of 
a Ways and Means motion (a procedural device and an automatic 
confidence matter) to implement tax credits announced in the 2009 
budget -- but not yet approved by Parliament, unbeknownst to most -- 
including a popular home renovation tax credit, help for first-time 
home buyers, and aid to farmers.  The House of Commons will vote on 
the motion on September 18.  In a separate initiative, the 
government announced its intention to table legislation on September 
16 to enhance Employment Insurance (E.I), including extending 
benefits by up to 20 weeks for long-tenured workers.  The measure 
would help an estimated 190,000 workers, especially in the hard-hit 
manufacturing, auto, and forestry industries. 
 
MINOR PARTIES TO HOLD THEIR NOSES? 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff quickly made clear that his 
party would vote against the Ways and Means motion.  However, the 
New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Bloc Quebecois have signaled that 
they might support it, dialing down expectations of the government's 
imminent defeat.  NDP leader Jack Layton insisted that, although 
ready for an election, he preferred to stay in Ottawa and "make 
Parliament work."  He stated that the proposed E.I. changes appeared 
to be "a step in the right direction," while still falling short of 
what the NDP would like to see.  Unlike the NDP's decision earlier 
this year to oppose the 2009 budget without even reading it, Layton 
pledged to wait until he had seen the proposed E.I. legislation 
before deciding how the party would vote on the Ways and Means 
motion (although the two pieces of legislation are not directly 
linked).  Layton nonetheless underscored that the NDP was not 
prepared to give the government a "blank check" and that its 
support, if any, would be on a vote-by-vote basis. 
 
¶4. (U) Separately, Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe indicated 
that his party would have "no problem" supporting the Ways and Means 
motion if only to ensure adoption of the popular home renovation tax 
credit, but "if it's on all of the government's work, we are not in 
agreement with this government."  Duceppe has not yet formally 
confirmed how his party would vote on the motion, expressing concern 
that the bill might contain a "poison pill." 
Qthat the bill might contain a "poison pill." 
 
PUSHING THE ENVELOPE 
-------------------- 
 
 
¶5. (U) The Conservatives have insisted that they have not, and will 
not, engage in back-room deals to secure opposition support. 
Following the confidence vote on the Ways and Means motion on 
September 18, the government may present its third "report card" on 
the economy as early as September 18, although it is not due until 
the week of September 28, according to the terms of an agreement 
between the Liberals and the government in June.  This agreement 
also provides for a Liberal "Opposition Day" two sitting days after 
the government tables the report.  If the report card is tabled on 
September 18, the Liberals would have their first opportunity to 
table an explicit motion of non-confidence on September 29 or 30. 
(The House of Commons does not sit the week of September 20 due to 
G-20 meetings.) 
 
POLLS GIVE CONSERVATIVES THE EDGE 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (U) In the polls, the Conservatives continue to open a lead over 
the opposition parties after late summer shifts in voting intentions 
broke the stalemate of the past ten months.  An Ipsos Reid poll 
released September 15 suggested that the Conservatives had the 
 
OTTAWA 00000719  002 OF 002 
 
 
support of 39 pct of decided voters nationally (close to majority 
territory), while the Liberals had 30 pct and the NDP 12 pct. 
Support for the Bloc remained steady, and it remained in first place 
in Quebec.  A separate Nanos poll gave PM Harper a wide margin over 
the Liberals' Ignatieff on trustworthiness, competence, and vision. 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) Comment:  The increasingly confident Conservative 
government has moved methodically through the summer to undermine 
the political raisons d'etre for a fall election by announcing 
stimulus funding, crafting changes to E.I., and warning of the 
damage to the economic recovery of a needless campaign.  The 
Conservatives appear well-positioned  -- financially and in the 
polls -- either to continue governing or to fight an election. 
Although the government is likely to survive its next confidence 
test on September 18, the Liberals appear increasingly determined to 
topple the Conservatives, and sooner rather than later will likely 
be able to garner the support of the NDP and the Bloc in doing so. 
 
BREESE