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FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
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INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000709 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV CA
SUBJECT: ATLANTIC CANADA: FALL ELECTION WON'T CHANGE MUCH 
 
REF:  OTTAWA 658 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  A fall election "that no one wants" appears 
increasingly likely as Parliament reconvenes on September 14.  Polls 
suggest such a fourth election in five years would produce another 
minority government.  After falling to a historic low of 77 seats in 
the 2008 election, the Liberal opposition hopes to take back seats 
in key provinces and to bolster support in traditional areas of 
strength, such as Atlantic Canada.  However, recent joint 
Embassy/ConGen Halifax discussions with Atlantic Canada contacts 
indicate that there are few seats up for grabs in that region.  As 
elsewhere, an election would be a riding-by-riding battle in which 
the quality of the parties' ground-game will be a key factor.  End 
summary. 
 
ELECTION COUNTDOWN 
------------------ 
 
¶2. (U) On September 1, federal Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff 
triggered a countdown to a fall election, wrapping up a Liberal 
planning retreat for the fall session of Parliament with a blunt 
warning to PM Stephen Harper that "your time is up."  Liberal 
Foreign Affairs critic Bob Rae reinforced the message, insisting 
that the Liberals would table a non-confidence motion "at the first 
available opportunity" after the House of Commons resumes on 
September 14.  The Bloc Quebecois and the New Democratic Party have 
signaled that are unwilling to prop up the government.  PM Harper 
has argued that political instability risks stalling a nascent 
economic recovery and warned repeatedly publicly and privately of a 
repeat of last December's opposition "coalition" with "socialists 
and separatists" should the Liberals win the election. 
 
 
¶3. (U) The Liberals' first chance to defeat the government will 
likely come on October 1, when they will have a scheduled 
"Opposition Day" two days after the Conservatives present an 
"accountability report" on the 2009-2010 federal budget.  If the 
government falls then, the earliest election date would be November 
9 (the Governor General sets the election date on the advice of the 
PM; campaigns must last a minimum of 35 days).  However, the 
Conservatives could theoretically seize the initiative and 
accelerate the timetable.  Some pundits have opined that the 
Conservatives might table a ways and means motion (to adjust or 
raise taxes) soon after the House of Commons returns.  The motion -- 
an automatic confidence matter -- would force the opposition to vote 
against a popular home renovation tax credit announced in the 2009 
budget (the Liberals have promised to restore the credit if they win 
the election).  Under this less than likely scenario, an election 
could take place as early as October 19 or 26. 
 
PUBLIC AGAINST A FALL VOTE 
-------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) In closing the Liberals' September planning session, 
Ignatieff declared the Liberal Party united, ready for a campaign, 
and armed with the "secret weapon" of Harper's record.  However, a 
poll released September 10 indicated that 73 pct believe that a fall 
election was unnecessary.  Three separate polls taken from late 
August to early September all indicate that the Conservatives have 
opened a four to five point lead -- between 35 and 37 pct to the 
Liberals' 30 to 33 pct -- after the two parties had remained 
virtually tied for much of the year.  Pollsters also noted that 
Liberal support seems to have slipped slightly in key battle-ground 
provinces of Ontario and British Columbia as well as Atlantic 
Canada, which has been a traditional mainstay of Liberal support. 
 
ALL DOWN TO THE GROUND-GAME 
---------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) The Liberals currently hold 17, the Conservatives 10, and 
Q5. (SBU) The Liberals currently hold 17, the Conservatives 10, and 
the NDP 4 of Atlantic Canada's 32 federal seats.  One seat is 
vacant.   Both the Conservatives and the Liberals have strong 
"brands" in the region, while the NDP surprised some by succeeding 
in electing members in 2008 in three of the four provinces. 
Business and political contacts in Atlantic Canada in September 
indicated to Embassy POL LES and ConGenoffs from Halifax that few 
seats in the region would appear to be really in play in a possible 
fall election.  The most competitive likely would be South Shore-St. 
Margaret's, Nova Scotia, now held by Conservative Gerald Keddy, the 
Parliamentary Secretary for International Trade.  Keddy will likely 
face a strong challenger in former NDP MP Gordon Earle.  Contacts 
predicted that popular Nova Scotia NDP premier Darryl Dexter, 
elected in June, would have no coattails for the federal NDP. 
Separately, a senior aide in the premier's office confirmed that 
Dexter would stay out of any federal campaign.  Contacts agreed that 
Nova Scotia voters clearly distinguish between the centrist 
home-grown Dexter and the federal NDP, and that the federal party 
has limited appeal outside metro Halifax.  They suggested that the 
"Dexter effect" might marginally boost Liberal support in Nova 
Scotia in a fall election before hard budget choices in spring 2010 
dim NDP popularity.  However, the unpopularity of the Liberal 
 
OTTAWA 00000709  002 OF 002 
 
 
provincial government in New Brunswick might counteract this impact. 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) Provincial Conservative aides in Nova Scotia confirmed that 
the provincial party would work actively for the Harper 
Conservatives in a federal campaign.  A federal Liberal contact 
noted that the federal Conservatives have invested significantly in 
building a new organization in Atlantic Canada, rather than simply 
grafting the merged party since 2003 onto former Progressive 
Conservative stock.  The federal Conservatives can also afford to 
pay staff rather than rely on scarce volunteers. As a result, the 
Liberal source suggested, the federal Conservative machine was in 
good shape, while provincial Conservatives claimed that the federal 
party was "on the cusp" of putting down roots in the region. 
 
¶7. (SBU) In contrast, the same Liberal source suggested that his 
party's organization in Nova Scotia, and across the region, was less 
battle-ready.  He admitted that, although incumbent Liberal MPs have 
maintained their own local organizations, Liberal associations in 
ridings held by other parties faced significant funding, volunteer, 
outreach, and recruitment challenges.  Moreover, he confirmed that 
old wounds in the party from the schism between former PMs Jean 
Chretien and Paul Martin remained "long and deep."  Although the 
party had changed leaders and had boosted fundraising, he commented, 
it had not yet seen a corresponding increase in organizational 
capacity. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Separately, a senior provincial NDP aide observed that 
Ignatieff's summer tour through the region suffered logistical 
snafus that highlighted the federal Liberals' weak coordination on 
the ground, as well as the inexperience of young staffers in 
Ignatieff's office (most of them loyalists from his 2006 leadership 
run, but untested in a national campaign).  The same observer argued 
that Ignatieff had had "a lot of support" in Atlantic Canada when he 
ran for the party leadership in 2006, but that many supporters "have 
not been too impressed" by his performance as leader, and Ignatieff 
had not yet effectively tapped into the regional pool of experienced 
Liberal workers.  Overall, he predicted that most Liberal incumbent 
MPs were probably "safe," but saw few opportunities to add seats. 
He noted that Ignatieff was only marginally more popular than other 
federal leaders in regional polls.  Although Atlantic Canadians have 
not warmed to PM Harper, the contact suggested that voters have 
accepted Harper "is what he is," and appear satisfied overall with 
the government's direction. 
 
ECONOMY A KEY ISSUE 
------------------- 
 
 
¶9. (SBU) Contacts confirmed that thus far regional voters had not 
been engaged by issues, such as Employment Insurance (E.I.), that 
the Liberals have highlighted as key concerns.  Although the economy 
remained the major issue, contacts underscored that the regional 
economy has weathered the recession fairly well.  Federal defense 
contracts already in the pipeline, and new orders such as C$194 
million announced on September 2 for construction of coast guard 
vessels at the Halifax shipyard, have helped to insulate the Nova 
Scotia economy.  Business contacts agreed that the slowdown had had 
some impact on industrial Cape Breton (N.S.), Northern New 
Brunswick, and Newfoundland and Labrador, but the damage is local. 
Observers did not expect E.I. to tip the balance against the 
Conservatives even in most of these communities, as the majority of 
seats in these ridings were already held by opposition members. 
 
¶10. (SBU) According to contacts, most federal stimulus funds have 
not yet begun to flow in Atlantic Canada.  An aide to Nova Scotia 
Qnot yet begun to flow in Atlantic Canada.  An aide to Nova Scotia 
premier Dexter estimated Nova Scotia's share of the federal stimulus 
package at approximately C$108 million, of which only C$19 million 
has been announced to date, with the remainder of commitments 
expected only after the House of Commons resumes on September 14. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Comment:  The federal Conservatives have improved their 
organization in Atlantic Canada, the party's economic message has 
resonance, and the party is competitive.  The federal Liberals may 
hold on to their 17 seats in the region, but the chance to make 
gains appears slim.  In Atlantic Canada (as elsewhere), the next 
election will likely be a riding-by-riding battle, in which the 
quality of the parties' ground-game will be the key factor.  End 
comment. 
 
¶12.  (U)  ConGen Halifax contributed to and cleared this message. 
BREESE