VZCZCXRO0801
RR RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHNM #0690/01 2642116
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 212116Z SEP 09
FM AMEMBASSY NIAMEY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5334
INFO RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 1663
RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NIAMEY 000690 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W AND AF/RSA; PLS PASS TO USAID AFR/W 
ACCRA ALSO FOR USAID/WA 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU - J MAYBURY 
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM SOCI AU NG
SUBJECT: Pan-African Parliamentary Delegation Calls on Ambassador 
 
Ref:  Niamey 684 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  On September 18, four members of an African Union 
(AU) Pan-African Parliamentary delegation called on Ambassador 
Allen, and stated that Niger's political opposition should accept 
the status quo and negotiate with President Tandja for a way forward 
that reflects their objectives.  Not doing so, they believed, would 
likely result in further deterioration of the political situation. 
While the AU's decision to send a delegation to Niger was a positive 
step, it is clear that the visit will not be helpful in moving 
beyond the current impasse.  Embassy's Deputy Chief of Mission 
(DCM), Political Officer (PolOff) and locally engaged staff (LES) 
Political Specialist also participated in the meeting.  End 
summary. 
 
Delegation Meets with Several Political Figures/Groups 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
¶2.  (SBU) On September 18, a delegation from the AU Pan-African 
Parliament met with Ambassador Allen, DCM, PolOff and LES Pol 
Specialist.  The delegation opened the meeting by informing the 
Ambassador of their vast agenda from the past week that included 
meetings with President Tandja, the Prime Minister, the Minister of 
Foreign Affairs, the Chadian Ambassador (as dean of the diplomatic 
corps), the European Commission Head of Delegation, the National 
Commission on Human Rights and Fundamental Liberties, the High 
Council of Communications, several opposition political parties, the 
media, and civil society organizations.  They indicated that their 
time, however, did not permit meetings with other foreign missions, 
including the French and Nigerian Embassies.  The AU delegation 
members were: 
 
-- Sawadogo Lassane, Chief of Delegation (Burkina Faso); 
-- Roger Nkodo Dang (Cameroon); 
-- Hassane Ahmed (Ethiopia); and 
-- Datrinade Marina, Recorder (South Africa). 
 
Delegation Said GON and Opposition Open to Dialogue 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
¶3. (SBU) Delegation members pointed out that throughout their 
meetings it came to their attention that there is a widening 
divergence among the political class, with growing differences 
between those who supported President Tandja and the new 
constitution, and those who did not.  The delegation considered 
opposition support for the 5th Republic and the 1999 constitution 
unrealistic, and suggested that divisive elections could be avoided 
if the political opposition seized President Tandja's opening for 
dialogue.  According to the delegation, the West needed to "convince 
the opposition of reality." 
 
¶4. (SBU) The members added that one objective not met was to meet 
with the current Constitutional Court members, in hopes of gaining 
insight into whether the slated October legislative elections had to 
take place on October 20 versus a later date.  Delegation members 
believe that the differences that exist between supporters of the 
new constitution and opponents will continue to widen, both before 
and after the legislative elections.  They added that they are 
worried that upcoming legislative elections will deepen the divide 
in Niger.  When asked whether the delegation had met with any of the 
former (dissolved) Constitutional Court members, the delegation 
responded it had not done so. 
 
National Forum Could Determine New Constitution 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
¶5. (SBU) The delegation reported that President Tandja and the Prime 
Minister were very open, with discussion taking place on all topics 
except rolling back the 6th Republic.  The delegation stated it 
similarly had the same level of open dialogue with opposition 
politicians.  The delegation asserted that the majority of Nigeriens 
did not like the former (1999) constitution because it was not 
adapted to the "realities of today's Niger," although no elaboration 
was offered.  The delegation stated that a national forum could be 
held, where both sides could state their position and eventually 
reach consensus on the terms and conditions of accepting a new 
constitution.  In the meantime, President Tandja would remain in 
power during a three-year transitional period. 
 
Both Sides Will Need To Make Concessions 
---------------------------------------- 
¶6. (SBU) Delegation members emphasized that both sides (the GON and 
opposition) must accept the impossibility of obtaining one hundred 
percent (100%) of what they seek, that "There will have to be give 
and take in this process."  The delegation believed that the 
opposition should accept the current situation, and be willing to 
 
NIAMEY 00000690  002 OF 002 
 
 
negotiate and compromise on remaining issues, particularly regarding 
the October 20 National Assembly elections.  They also stated that 
the opposition admitted willingness to back down from their current 
political stance and engage in dialogue with the GON without 
pre-conditions. 
 
Ethiopian Parliamentarian Cites Two Possible Scenarios 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
¶7. (SBU) Citing past conflict in Ethiopia, Hassane Ahmed expressed 
hope that the ongoing political tension in Niger could eventually be 
resolved in a similar fashion.  He stated that the most favorable 
outcome would be for efforts to propel both sides together to 
promote a "give and take" resolution of political differences.  A 
part of this could involve President Tandja agreeing to postpone 
legislative elections for the opposition's accepting the reality of 
the 6th Republic.  He added that the opposition had made a mistake 
when it boycotted the referendum, and that now it would not be fair 
to citizens to claim subsequent elections unfair. 
 
¶8. (SBU) In what he coined as an "unfavorable" situation, Ahmed said 
that the Nigerien opposition could calculate to resist the 
government by confronting it on the streets in hopes of disrupting 
and eventually isolating it.  Opposition members could push for 
civil disobedience and stoke unrest, and gamble that the GON's 
support would dwindle over time.  Both sides "over-estimate the 
other," he observed, which is a "recipe for battle." 
 
¶9. (SBU) Ahmed believes the opposition should agree to allow 
President Tandja to stay in office for the next three years, with 
the hope of delaying legislative elections as well as the 
implementation date for the new constitution.  When pressed by 
Ambassador Allen on how this would be different from the 
opposition's current situation, Ahmed admitted that the opposition 
would not stand to gain by doing so.  The Ambassador questioned why 
President Tandja, if he is certain of "overwhelming support from the 
people", insists on a three-year extension to his mandate, as 
opposed to competing in Presidential elections against any 
challengers.  The delegation seemed to have no response to that 
question. 
 
Comment: 
-------- 
¶10. (SBU) Although the AU's decision to send a delegation to Niger 
was a good demonstration of continental leadership and engagement, 
the delegation members did not seem to have a firm grasp on the 
current political situation in Niger.  The delegation stated that 
their first meeting was with President Tandja and that the absence 
of an out-brief with him would not permit them to probe him on 
issues brought up in subsequent meetings with other stakeholders 
(e.g., human rights groups, private media) throughout the week. 
Regrettably, they appeared all too ready to accept recent political 
developments as givens, and to insist that the political opposition 
do likewise, while seeking meetings with President Tandja to pursue 
their remaining objectives.  They seemed to see dialogue as an end, 
rather than a means.  The delegation will eventually submit a report 
to the AU; however, we do not expect realistic recommendations to 
result. 
 
Allen