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OO RUEHBC RUEHBZ RUEHDE RUEHDH RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHKUK RUEHMA
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DE RUEHNJ #0391/01 2531458
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 101458Z SEP 09 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7225
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NDJAMENA 000391 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR AF/C AND S/USSES 
NSC FOR GAVIN 
LONDON FOR POL - LORD 
PARIS FOR POL - BAIN AND KANEDA 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR AU 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PREF PHUM UN CD
SUBJECT: UN EXPERTS ON CHAD ELECTIONS:  CENSUS WILL TAKE 
8-12 MONTHS, EVEN WITHOUT BIOMETRIC METHODOLOGY, MAKING 
2010 POLLING LESS LIKELY 
 
REF: NDJAMENA 318 
 
NDJAMENA 00000391  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1.  (SBU)  A UNDP-sponsored team of electoral experts told us 
that they found Chad's "overall electoral environment" to be 
"positive" and had therefore recommended "significant UN 
support" to Chad's electoral process, including a "massive 
international observation mission."  The team briefed Emboffs 
September 8 on the findings of their weeklong visit, making 
special note of the timing they believed would be required 
for various methods of conducting an electoral census, which 
must follow the demographic census recently completed.  The 
experts estimated that a "simple" electoral census, using 
relatively low-tech information technology, would require 
eight-12 months, while a more elaborate "biometric" census, 
based on more advanced information technology (as specified 
in the August 13, 2007 Accord), would require 18-24 months 
and be much more expensive.  The experts pointed out that 
either arrangement would call into question the proposed June 
2010 date for elections and that the more elaborate 
"biometric" census would not in itself make the final 
electoral results more legitimate. 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  We were encouraged by the experts' comprehensive 
analysis of Chad's electoral environment and their keen 
desire for the UN to be a major partner in Chad's elections. 
Their belief in Chad's election-related efforts to date lends 
support to the GOC.  The surprising element in the team's 
analysis was the longer-than-expected timeline they predicted 
for any type of electoral census.  We agree with the team 
that potential delays provoked by insisting on the more 
elaborate, "biometric" census are not worth the wait.  We 
will be discussing this with other donors, who we suspect 
will share our views generally.  END SUMMARY. 
 
---------------------------- 
CHAD'S ELECTORAL ENVIRONMENT 
---------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  Over the past week, local UNDP reps hosted UN 
electoral experts from New York, who were here to evaluate 
the feasibility of different types of electoral censuses in 
Chad as well as the question of whether conditions on the 
ground warrant UN support for Chad's electoral process. 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  The UNDP team analyzed four elements of the 
electoral environment in Chad. 
 
-- The implementation of the August 13 Accord, which provides 
a forum for the opposition to enter political dialogue:  The 
team judged positively achievements thus far under the Accord 
(Reftel) but said they strongly believed the process still 
needed support.  Furthermore, they said, real challenges -- 
administrative and security -- remained. 
 
-- Types of electoral census:  The team evaluated the 
feasibility of the recommendation in the August 13 Accord for 
a biometric census.  It pointed out that any sort of 
electoral census would require two tasks:  development of 
electoral rolls and distribution of voting cards.  The group 
determined that a "simple" low-tech information census, where 
biodata are collected in a non-technical manner, would take 
8-12 months.  A high-tech biometric census, which the group 
said would be very technically sophisticated as it would 
include digital photos, digital fingerprints and other 
digitized biodata, would take 18-24 months.  The team said 
that it was in favor of Chad's Independent Electoral 
Commission (CENI) deciding which type of electoral census to 
pursue, but members noted that both timelines called into 
doubt the viability of holding elections in June 2010. 
 
-- Administration of the Election:  The team viewed 
positively Chad's successful implementation of those aspects 
of the August Accords that called for creation of an 
independent" CENI, but noted that the "political" composition 
of the body challenged its ability to carry out an election 
effectively.  The experts emphasized that Chad's CENI was not 
 
NDJAMENA 00000391  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
an administrative organization and noted that the CENI would 
have to decide who had ultimate administrative responsibility 
for elections. 
 
-- International community support:  The experts were pleased 
to hear about ongoing or planned EU, U.S., and UNDP support 
for the electoral process overall but underscored that a 
"massive mission of international observers" would be 
necessary to ensure that elections took place according to 
international standards. 
 
-------------------------- 
RECOMMENDATIONS OF SUPPORT 
-------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  The team also shared five recommendations that it 
planned to forward to the UNSYG for approval.  The team 
strongly recommended that the UN support elections in Chad 
and divided its specific recommendations into two groups, 1) 
those involving the need to improve Chad's socio-political 
and security environment; and 2) those involving the need to 
provide technical and financial assistance.  The experts will 
recommend that the UN: 
 
-- Support the Follow-up Committee established in the August 
Accord in its mission of implementing the remaining elements 
of the Accord, namely improving the general environment for 
political dialogue; 
-- Deploy a Peace and Development Advisor from UNDP HQ to 
Chad; 
-- Encourage closer collaboration on electoral issues among 
UNDP, MINURCAT and other UN agencies; 
-- Study the possibility of providing technical assistance to 
the CENI for electoral organization and administration; and 
-- Provide logistical assistance for an international 
observer mission. 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  The team also said that it had tried to highlight 
to the CENI and other interlocutors that the notion of a 
high-tech biometric census, on the one hand, and the matter 
of transparent, credible elections, on the other, were two 
separate issues.  The team said that a credible election 
would result from citizens' faith in the electoral system.  A 
high-tech biometric census would not create that faith, they 
added, further noting that an election could still be viewed 
as lacking credibility even following a biometric census. 
 
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COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  We were encouraged by the experts' comprehensive 
analysis of Chad's electoral environment and their keen 
desire for the UN to be a major partner in Chad's elections. 
Their belief in Chad's election-related efforts to date lends 
support to the GOC.  The surprising element in the team's 
analysis was the longer-than-expected timeline they predicted 
for any type of electoral census.  We at the Embassy do not 
think that the delays involved with insisting on a high-tech 
biometric system are worth the wait.  We will be discussing 
this with other donors, who we suspect will our share our 
views generally.  END COMMENT. 
 
¶8.  (U)  Minimize considered. 
NIGRO