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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 002030 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA - Somaliland Averts Crisis 
 
REF: a) Nairobi 2010 
b) Nairobi 2009 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  On September 25, Somaliland averted what 
appeared to be an imminent political crisis when its Guurti (House 
of Elders) agreed that all parties must adhere to the six-point 
framework agreement that had been endorsed by all sides.  (A day 
earlier, on September 24, most observers believed that the Guurti 
would opt for a unilateral, one-year extension of President Riyale's 
term in office.)  Opposition supporters rallied the public to 
prepare to protest this ruling and the government massed its police. 
Once the Guurti's announcement was made, the crowds dispersed and 
all parties celebrated an end to the standoff and a new opportunity 
to break the political deadlock.  The text of the agreement is in 
Paragraph 7. The six-point framework agreement will be signed in 
Hargeisa, most likely on September 29.  The Ambassador and President 
Riyale will speak by telephone on September 29.  Somalia Unit and 
other members of the Nairobi-based international community will 
mobilize a team of independent international experts to help the 
National Electoral Commission review election preparations and set a 
new timeline.  End summary. 
 
------------------------ 
Immediate Crisis Averted 
------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (SBU) On September 24, all signs were that parties in Somaliland 
were headed for a bitter showdown.  Reports indicated that the 
Guurti's unilateral extension of President Riyale's term in office 
for one year was a fait accompli (ref a).  Although Riyale stated 
publicly that he supported the six-point framework agreement, he 
also said that the Guurti is an independent body and that he would 
not interfere in its work. The opposition, respected Somaliland 
leaders, and members of the administration warned Riyale and members 
of the Guurti that an extension would undermine the six-point 
framework agreement and reduce prospects that consensus on the way 
forward could be reached. We made the same point to the Office of 
the President and to our contacts from all sectors.  We registering 
as well concern that a Guurti decision to extend Riyale's term would 
likely lead to violence. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) We understand that intense political negotiations among 
all parties lasted until 4:00 a.m., September 25.  One of our 
contacts within the government told us that Riyale unsuccessfully 
tried to strengthen his hand by re-deploying military forces from 
the Sool and Sanaag regions to Hargeisa.  The general in charge of 
these troops reportedly refused the order. Another government 
contact told us that in the middle of the night he confronted 
Riyale, telling him that if he proceeded with his plan, the U.S. 
would make him a target of sanctions, including a travel ban and 
asset freeze.  Traditional and clan leaders played a prominent role 
in the negotiations.  Many of the pressure points outlined in ref b 
were used liberally by those trying to avert a crisis. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) On the morning of September 25, there was a heavy military 
and police presence in the area around the presidency and the 
Parliament.  The public heeded calls by the opposition parties to 
gather and prepare to protest any unilateral move by the Guurti. 
While the situation was tense, there was no violence.  At 
approximately 9:30 a.m.(local), the Guurti convened and announced 
its decision that all parties must adhere to the six-point framework 
agreement and that the President's term in office would expire one 
month after the presidential election.  Saleban Mohamud, the Guurti 
Chairman, told reporters the elders had overwhelmingly voted to 
pressure Riyale into negotiations.  This decision rubber stamped the 
general framework agreement and clarified various constitutional 
interpretations that some claimed would have led to a power vacuum. 
After the decision was announced, the crowds dispersed peacefully. 
 
 
--------------------------------- 
All Parties Ready to Move Forward 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Right after the Guurti's September 25 announcement, we 
spoke with the Office of the President, Minister of Foreign Affairs, 
leaders from both opposition parties, and civil society 
representatives who were all happy with the results.  Foreign 
Minister Duale told us that, through this process, the Somaliland 
authorities have learned that the United States was a "true friend" 
of Somaliland.  Duale said the decision was "bad news for the 
extremists who had hoped to exploit a power vacuum and popular 
 
NAIROBI 00002030  002 OF 003 
 
 
dissatisfaction."  Duale and representatives from the opposition 
parties asked for immediate U.S. assistance to re-focus their 
efforts on the next steps.  They asked us to help "guarantee" that 
the elections take place as quickly as possible.  They also asked 
for more sustained U.S. engagement in Somaliland, including a focus 
on institution-building and job opportunities. 
 
--------------------------- 
Memorandum of Understanding 
--------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) We received the text of the framework agreement from our 
UK counterparts who told us that the signing ceremony will likely be 
scheduled for September 29.  The UN Political Office for Somalia 
(UNPOS) will charter a plane for members of the international 
community to be present at the event. The UK representative told us 
that all are eager to have as wide representation as possible to 
indicate that the agreement is "not an Ethiopian-only initiative." 
 
 
¶7.  (U) The text of the six point agreement follows: 
 
Begin text: 
 
MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OF 
SOMALILAND 
 
The three registered political parties in Somaliland, together 
hereafter referred to as the "Parties;" 
 
Committed to preserving the peace, stability and credibility that 
Somaliland has achieved over the last decade and half; 
 
Conscious of their responsibilities to safeguard the welfare of the 
people of Somaliland in a sub-region where the preservation of peace 
and stability in any country is not an easy exercise; 
 
Fully cognisant of the imperative necessity of creating the 
conditions for fair, free and peaceful elections, without which the 
preservation of peace, stability and credibility of Somaliland will 
not be possible; 
 
Fully convinced that the ruling party and the two opposition parties 
have historic responsibility to make the upcoming election free, 
fair and peaceful; 
 
have reached the following understanding: 
 
-- Paragraph 1 
 
Given the shortage of time remaining before September 27, 2009, 
which is the jointly agreed time for the next election, the parties 
accept that the election be postponed. The new time for the election 
is to be decided as per what is stated in paragraphs 4 and 5 below. 
 
-- Paragraph 2 
 
The Parties agree that all options, including changes in the 
leadership and composition of the National Election Commission, need 
to be considered to restore public confidence in the Commission and 
to make sure that the Commission is able to perform the role 
expected of it under the Constitution. 
 
-- Paragraph 3 
 
The three parties have agreed that there is a need for a voters' 
registration list as legally provided for, for this and future 
elections.  In this regard, taking note of the shortcomings of the 
existing voter registration list, the three parties accept that 
there is a need to further refine the list and to consider whether 
further safeguards are required to avoid multiple voting. 
 
-- Paragraph 4 
 
The parties have agreed to invite independent international experts 
to assist the National Election Commission in reviewing Somaliland's 
electoral preparations.  The experts will be invited to submit their 
recommendations to the Commission including on how to refine the 
provisional voter list, and on the timetable under which the 
remaining preparations for the election can be held.  The Commission 
shall then fix the new date for the election based on the amount of 
time required for the final election preparations to be made. 
 
NAIROBI 00002030  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
The Parties also decided that detailed terms of reference for the 
experts should be agreed with the political parties and the 
Commission. 
 
-- Paragraph 5 
 
On the basis that the determination of the date of the election is 
de-politicised, with the date to be fixed by the Commission, in 
light of the recommendations by the experts as set out in paragraph 
4 above, the parties have agreed that the term of office of the 
President and Vice-President should be extended to a date not more 
than one month after the date to be fixed by the Commission for the 
elections. 
 
-- Paragraph 6 
 
The parties underline the need for Friends of Somaliland to continue 
their engagement with the three parties with the view to 
contributing to the faithful implementation of the understanding 
contained in paragraphs 1 to 5 above and assisting the Somaliland 
authorities to carry out a free, fair and peaceful elections 
critical for preserving the stability, security and credibility of 
Somaliland. 
 
---------- 
Next Steps 
---------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) On September 25, we met with our international 
counterparts, including the UK, EU, Norway, Sweden and UNPOS.  All 
agreed that while the immediate crisis was averted, the framework 
agreement offers few details and provides leeway for all parties, 
especially the government and the ruling UDUB party, to drag their 
feet.  In fact, the MOU is just a general agreement to move forward 
on the elections, returning the process to where it was on July 27, 
prior to the decision by the NEC and the government to throw out the 
voter registration list.  All donors agreed that continued pressure 
on all parties, especially the government, is necessary to maintain 
momentum. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Also on September 25 Ambassador Ranneberger sent a letter 
to President Riyale requesting a telephone conversation in order to 
register our concern about recent developments in Somaliland, as 
well as to discuss the Somaliland President's plans for the 
elections and to push for rapid changes to the National Electoral 
Commission (NEC) and refining the voter registration list.  A call 
between Riyale and the Ambassador has been scheduled for the morning 
of September 29. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) In the coming days, the UK and the U.S. will co-chair a 
meeting of the Somaliland Democratization Committee, bringing 
together the Nairobi-based missions focused on the electoral 
process.  All international partners agreed that collectively we 
must push the parties to quickly change the composition of the NEC. 
These changes would pave the way for the team of international 
experts mentioned in para 4 of the MOU.  The UK announced that it 
will pay for a small team, but only after a new NEC leadership has 
been announced.  We will augment this team with expertise through 
our Somaliland-based partners to help the NEC develop 
recommendations to fix a new election date. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) While the framework agreement was celebrated by all 
sides, it is very broad and provides no details on the modalities of 
implementation.  However, it was successful in breaking the 
political impasse, thus averting what many thought would become a 
violent confrontation.  We plan to continue our engagement with 
Somaliland, emphasizing contacts with those in the political 
parties, but also with the traditional elders, businessmen, and clan 
leaders who continue to wield significant influence over the 
political landscape. 
 
RANNEBERGER