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      PESU-00  SANA-00    /001W
  
R 280850Z SEP 09
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1107
INFO AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 
AMEMBASSY ASMARA 
AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI 
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
USMISSION USUN ROME IT
USMISSION GENEVA 
USEU BRUSSELS
NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS NAIROBI 002029 
 
 
AIDAC 
 
USAID/DCHA JBRAUSE 
DCHA/OFDA FOR PMORRIS; ACONVERY; KCHANNELL; MBEERS; 
APIYAKA DCHA/FFP JBORNS; JDWORKEN; SANTHONY; CMUTAMBA; 
DNELSON; 
USAID/AFR/EA JESCALONA 
USUN FOR DMERCADO 
ROME FOR HSPANOS 
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH 
BRUSSELS FOR USEU JADDLETON; PBROWN 
NSC FOR CPRATT 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: EAID PHUM PREL PREF KE
SUBJECT:  HORN OF AFRICA EL NINO REGIONAL 
PROJECTIONS. 
 
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Summary 
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¶1.  The recently concluded Intergovernmental Authority 
on Development (IGAD) in East Africa Climate Outlook 
Forum confirmed the presence of the El Nino weather 
phenomenon in the greater Horn of Africa region.  El 
Nino conditions are expected to result in normal to 
above-normal rainfall during the upcoming September to 
December rainfall season in the region, positively 
impacting agriculture and food security but also 
potentially resulting in flooding, reduced access, and 
increased incidences of human and livestock water- 
related diseases.  Humanitarian organizations operating 
in the region are developing contingency plans, 
including the pre-positioning of humanitarian stocks 
and identification of alternative transport options to 
mitigate the impact of flooding.  USAID?s Office of 
U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA) maintains 
flexible programming mechanisms with existing 
implementing partners to facilitate rapid response 
capacity and continues to closely monitor flood-prone 
areas in the region.  End summary. 
 
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Regional Overview 
----------------- 
 
¶2.  According to IGAD, El Nino conditions are projected 
to result in normal to above-normal rainfall during the 
September to December rainy season in the region. 
Rains are expected to start on time in most of the 
October to December rainfall?dependent areas, intensify 
in November, and extend into early 2010.  Increased 
rainfall is expected to positively impact water and 
pasture availability, crop production, and associated 
food insecurity, particularly in drought-affected 
pastoral, agropastoral, and lowland cropping areas, 
according to the USAID-supported Famine Early Warning 
Systems Network (FEWS NET). 
 
¶3.  However, FEWS NET cautions that heavy rains are 
likely to result in increased livestock mortality among 
weakened animals in drought-affected areas, flooding, 
infrastructure damage, reduced humanitarian and 
commercial access, and increased incidents in human and 
livestock water-related diseases, such as malaria, 
diarrheal disease, and Rift Valley Fever (RVF).  Flood- 
prone areas likely to be affected include the Juba 
valley in Somalia, Shabelle valley in Ethiopia and 
Somalia, and the Tana River valley, coastal lowland, 
and Lake Victoria basin areas in Kenya, according to 
FEWS NET. 
 
¶4.  In late 2006, unusually heavy rainfall associated 
with the last occurrence of El Nino conditions caused 
widespread flooding in many parts of Ethiopia, Kenya, 
and Somalia.  According to the U.N. Office for the 
Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), 2006 short 
rains flooding in Kenya affected an estimated 723,000 
people countrywide, accompanied by an increased 
incidence of water-related diseases, and significant 
damage to roads, crops, and farmland.  In addition, 
2006 regional flooding affected an estimated 362,000 
people in Ethiopia, according to the U.N., and an 
estimated 255,000 individuals in Somalia, according to 
the Somalia Support Secretariat?s flood working group. 
However, FEWS NET projections indicate that 2009 El 
Nino conditions are likely to be mild to moderate, 
compared to the moderate classification of the 2006 El 
Nino season and therefore FEWS NET anticipates a 
reduced impact compared to 2006. 
 
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Kenya 
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¶5.  The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has 
projected above-normal rainfall performance for the 
North Eastern, Coast, Western, Nyanza, and central Rift 
Valley provinces, and normal rainfall levels for the 
remaining areas of Rift Valley, Central, and Eastern 
provinces.  Increased rainfall would positively impact 
agriculture and food security in drought-affected 
areas.  However, the El Nino phenomenon is also 
expected to bring heavy rains and flooding. 
 
¶6.  In early September, the Kenya Red Cross Society 
(KRCS) shared potential 2009 short rains scenarios with 
the humanitarian community to help inform contingency 
and mitigation planning.  Best-case scenarios 
projections anticipate that flooding will affect 
200,000 individuals, including the displacement of 
20,000 people.  In the most likely scenario, KRCS 
anticipates that flooding will affect 750,000 
individuals, including 150,000 refugees, and 100,000 
internally displaced persons (IDPs).  Flooding and 
landslides are likely to occur in Muranga and Nyeri, 
Central Province; Nakuru, Nandi, Baringo, and Pokot, 
Rift Valley Province; Kisii, Nyanza Province; and Meru, 
Eastern Province, according to KRCS.  In the unlikely, 
worst-case scenario, KRCS projected floods could affect 
up to 2 million people, including displacement of an 
estimated 200,000 individuals. 
 
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Somalia 
------- 
 
¶7.  FEWS NET reports an increased likelihood of near to 
above-normal rainfall for most of Somalia during the 
next October to December deyr rains.  In particular, 
rains are expected to be heavy in southern and central 
regions where consecutive seasons of poor rainfall have 
negatively affected agriculture and livestock sectors. 
 
¶8.  FEWS NET notes that above normal 2009 deyr rains 
would end the drought in affected regions.  However, 
FEWS NET cautions that initial heavy rains would likely 
contribute to increased mortality among weak, drought- 
affected animals, further undermining pastoralist 
livelihoods and food security.  In addition, heavy 
rains would exacerbate poor shelter conditions among 
IDPs, including more than 600,000 IDPs concentrated 
along the Afgooye corridor outside of Mogadishu.  FEWS 
NET also reports the likelihood of heavy rains in the 
Ethiopian highlands, resulting in significant flooding 
along the Juba and Shabelle river basins of southern 
and central Somalia. 
 
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Conclusion 
---------- 
 
¶9.  Elevated September to December rainfall levels 
associated with El Nino conditions in the Horn of 
Africa present opportunities and challenges associated 
with replenished water sources, regenerated pasture, 
and improved crop production, as well as potential 
flooding, infrastructure damage, and increased 
incidents of water-related diseases.  Overall food 
security for vulnerable populations in the region is 
unlikely to significantly improve due to the cumulative 
impact of consecutive seasons of poor rains, high food 
prices, and insecurity that have contributed to asset 
depletion and elevated food insecurity.  In addition, 
historical trends indicate that drought conditions 
typically follow an El Nino season, undermining 
potential short-term agricultural and pastoralist gains 
from a robust short rains season.  However, an enhanced 
short rains season represents an opportunity to 
increase short-cycle harvests if seed and fertilizer 
availability is augmented, as well as an opportunity to 
increase water availability through improved collection 
and storage capacity. 
 
¶10.  Humanitarian organizations operating in the region 
are preparing contingency plans to mitigate the impact 
of potential flooding, including pre-positioning 
emergency relief commodities and identifying 
alternative transport options.  On September 14, OCHA 
and the Government of Kenya Ministry of State for 
Special Programs hosted a consultative contingency 
planning workshop to facilitate the development of a 
common response strategy attended by representatives 
from relevant GOK ministries, U.N. agencies, non- 
governmental organizations (NGOs), and donors, 
including USAID/OFDA.  In addition, the U.N. World Food 
Program (WFP) and the Office of the U.N. High 
Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) have drafted 
contingency plans for refugee areas in northeastern and 
northwestern Kenya.  Flooding in 2006 affected more 
than 100,000 refugees in the Dadaab refugee complex, 
currently host to an estimated 290,000 refugees and 
characterized by severe overcrowding and limited 
service provision. 
 
¶11.  USAID/OFDA maintains flexible programming 
mechanisms with existing implementing partners to 
facilitate rapid response capacity and continues to 
closely monitor flood-prone areas in the region. 
 
RANNEBERGER.